Jebman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Is NoVA aril getting 5-7 tomorrow or are we screwed now? . You will probably get 6 inches, then possibly another 2 inches Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar slowly, slowly, slowly starting to fill in. Seeing some returns down in the triad of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some of you are getting sleepy right now, You're draggin' baby. No sleep. NONE! Stay the fook up! This is your first real major snowstorm in FIVE YEARS! Drink coffee as though you are on a winning streak in Craps at MGM National Harbor overnight! Take Uppers, meth, whatever it will take to keep you all awake! WE ARE TALKIN SNOW HERE! This is NOT to be missed! I got somethin' for y'all for the overnight! This, is when it gets good! 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jebman said: Some of you are getting sleepy right now, You're draggin' baby. No sleep. NONE! Stay the fook up! This is your first real major snowstorm in FIVE YEARS! Drink coffee as though you are on a winning streak in Craps at MGM National Harbor overnight! Take Uppers, meth, whatever it will take to keep you all awake! WE ARE TALKIN SNOW HERE! This is NOT to be missed! I got somethin' for y'all for the overnight! This, is when it gets good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Enjoying my modeled jackpot. About to go measure. 2:20 measurement: 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: What’s your cal for fairfax? . 6.9” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, Jebman said: Some of you are getting sleepy right now, You're draggin' baby. No sleep. NONE! Stay the fook up! This is your first real major snowstorm in FIVE YEARS! Drink coffee as though you are on a winning streak in Craps at MGM National Harbor overnight! Take Uppers, meth, whatever it will take to keep you all awake! WE ARE TALKIN SNOW HERE! This is NOT to be missed! I got somethin' for y'all for the overnight! This, is when it gets good! I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pogoism9 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 EZF represent! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up. Since I've been down here, we have been fortunate not to get too much severe. It rains a LOT less here than in N VA. We see strong winds with some fronts in the cool season. But, no severe thunderstorms and no tornadoes and we generally never have to worry about hurricanes. They hit Houston, we are safely too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Jebman said: Since I've been down here, we have been fortunate not to get too much severe. It rains a LOT less here than in N VA. We see strong winds with some fronts in the cool season. But, no severe thunderstorms and no tornadoes and we generally never have to worry about hurricanes. They hit Houston, we are safely too far west. Hopefully that picks up soon. In my time there there (Jan 2015-Nov 2016) was a F1 that went less than a mile from me, decent hail events (best I saw was a golf ball severe event, luckily for me my car was under a canopy), a 80 mph bow echo and numerous other severe/tornado warnings. Anything I experienced on LI severe wise beneath paled in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow has started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 WB 6Z 3k NAM thru early Mon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I think I can see pixie dust out my window in Lake Ridge 31.5/22 Edit: oh yeah, stable -SN. Mulch caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 29.5/25 SN Driveway caved almost instantly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Idk this is starting to have bust written all over it to me. Did not like the way the 3K NAM went for the coastal and the HRRR and RAP are pretty measley with today’s stuff. Where’s the rates? Just don’t look like there’s ever +snow with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Started in Gaithersburg. Very light. Road starting to cover over like the mulch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I think Downtown DC may have just hit its highest accumulation in two years. Snowing steadily now. Everything covered, except salted major streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ka60 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Clarksburg, 4:45 AM Sun Jan31, Moderate Snow. roads are covered already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. I’ll bet nobody in Maryland gets a foot much less 2 or 3. Do you ever post realistic expectations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. Justin Berk? Starting to see some flurries. Waiting on my 2 feet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GfS ain’t too bad with the coastal/CCB for Monday afternoon and evening. It’s not a pummeling until you get to the PA line but we’re able to add 3-5” elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 WB 6Z NAM v 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 About and inch and Light Snow, just NW of FXBG, 28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 27/27. 4 inches and counting! Pics to follow in the morning. NW of Staunton at 1550’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 WB 6z GFS v 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps. One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Meso for SW part of forum https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0049.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow Thanks @MillvilleWx and everyone for the awesome analysis! Much appreciated! Light Snow and 28 NW of Fredericksburg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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