ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I guess there is still time for a trend back south, but there's clearly a consensus growing that west of Philly up through NJ and into NYC is going to be the heaviest axis of snow. Shocking. Every damn storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Stop cliff diving. we take what we can get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: When is the next storm threat? Just now, digital snow said: Stop cliff diving. we take what we can get 4-8 is a win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Better then 18z hmmm I thought they said it would be all over by late monday night around 10 for my area. this looks like it goes through a good part of Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nobody gets 50" without the NAM showing 100" 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: When is the next storm threat? Next weekend. Probably another 3-6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well, we're taking a bit of a beating on the trends tonight. Notwithstanding the GFS (which I cannot envision it trending for the better), it appears that a lot of the newer guidance, particularly the CAMs, are not as bullish beyond 00Z Monday. I would gladly take this ICON prog off of WB...if it were "deal or no deal" I'd be slamming my hand on that button so fast you wouldn't even see it. The problem is -- how much accumulation is progged after the changeover tomorrow evening? At this point, those of us in and around the beltway really cannot rely on additional accums Monday. Ergo, a high-end advisory for most (3-5" in 12 hours). Gosh I hope I'm wrong, but these trends are disturbing, though not never before seen with a Miller B. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So it's now looking like ICON, Euro, RGEM are all basically in agreement. I'm going to guess the CMC shows something similar. And the GFS isn't that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar is blowing up in western areas of Virginia. Any obs from Staunton? Snowing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 18z Euro basically showed what the 00z RGEM is showing, a CCB but further north but it retrogrades from W-E to N-S and dies out over my yard. 4-6 inches front end thump, then possibly another 1-3'' on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 55.7" I know it's a clown map, but geese.... Anything close to that would be cataclysmic. Would that be a new category in the MECS, HECS, BECS hierarchy? A CECS? Cataclysmic East Cost Storm... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 0Z HRRR likes Philly as well. 3-5 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Next weekend. Probably another 3-6. im good with that as long as thats the highest potential of the storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Demeter said: Radar is blowing up in western areas of Virginia. Any obs from Staunton? Snowing? @WesternFringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I truly don't know much more about weather than what I read on these boards. . . but I know how to read a room. . . the euphoria that I saw late morning and in the afternoon has, well, virga'ed away? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs. Do globals still matter a ton when it's this close? Mesos would pick up better on any trends, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, AACOUNTYMD said: I truly don't know much more about weather than what I read on these boards. . . but I know how to read a room. . . the euphoria that I saw late morning and in the afternoon has, well, virga'ed away? Really? Doesn't look as good as earlier, especially now that the Euro and RGEM seem to be almost copies of each other, but there's still hope. That deform band is hard to pin down there's still over a day until it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, AACOUNTYMD said: I truly don't know much more about weather than what I read on these boards. . . but I know how to read a room. . . the euphoria that I saw late morning and in the afternoon has, well, virga'ed away? Really? There's a huge winter storm coming with an outside shot at us getting 1'+, but it will be absolute luck. Of course people are nervous, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Either it will or it won't on Monday...book it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Usually the gut punch occurs a few days prior to start of event. This one especially brutal as it is less than 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Demeter said: Radar is blowing up in western areas of Virginia. Any obs from Staunton? Snowing? Asking my parents 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just toggled back through the RGEM run and it really wasn't that far away from being really good again. The best bands get so close to pivoting over us and they either go straight west across PA or start to drop down toward us and then just don't quite make it much past the PA/MD border. The favored spots in Northern MD are still very much in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Demeter said: Radar is blowing up in western areas of Virginia. Any obs from Staunton? Snowing? There are returns getting pretty close to me, but 29/15, so not sure it's anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 35/17 now. Lol being above freezing after midnight might prevent tomorrow from being the first day since 2019 that DCA stays below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 19 minutes ago, yoda said: @WesternFringe Reporting for duty nw of Staunton. Under fire from heavy virga, sir! eta: 29/20. Nearly all models had the snow starting here around 1:00 am, so I am not mad at the virga eating up my dry air. Right on schedule. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, pazzo83 said: 35/17 now. Lol being above freezing after midnight might prevent tomorrow from being the first day since 2019 that DCA stays below freezing. You might stay all rain I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Returns getting pretty close out here. Snow almost to Harrisonburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: I truly don't know much more about weather than what I read on these boards. . . but I know how to read a room. . . the euphoria that I saw late morning and in the afternoon has, well, virga'ed away? Really? 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: You might stay all rain I dunno we'll just take the red line up a few stops to see the snow (lol actually we won't as I haven't ridden the train since the pandemic started). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32.4 Does primary look further west than thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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