Quasievil Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate the nam. And it hates us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: High end advisory to warning level snows on the front end of the NAM, but that’s all she wrote with the coastal heading north. CCB deform band will be in southern New England on this run. Lucky we get some light wrap around snow and that will be all. No tuck. How likely do you think the snows back in Ohio would be at 84hr on the NAM? I know the NAM is crazy, but that seems pretty loco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 guess ill hug the rgem now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: How likely do you think the snows back in Ohio would be at 84hr on the NAM? I know the NAM is crazy, but that seems pretty loco. Nothing else has more than flurries or scattered snow showers as far as I can tell. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: How likely do you think the snows back in Ohio would be at 84hr on the NAM? I know the NAM is crazy, but that seems pretty loco. It’ll snow up there until that primary fully dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: guess ill hug the rgem now It’s all we got lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just told my parents who are located near the Mario cuomo bridge in NY to get ready for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone. Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run? I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z. Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant. I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Just told my parents who are located near the Mario cuomo bridge in NY to get ready for a big dog. I wouldn't say that so definitively yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, gopper said: Is this what the HRRR did as well? And to a lesser degree the GFS? Yes...but sometimes that actually does happen and it’s not a model feedback error. But it can be, especially on the mesos with this type of setup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Nothing else has more than flurries or scattered snow showers as far as I can tell. Exactly Just now, ers-wxman1 said: It’ll snow up there until that primary fully dissipates. Thanks. That absolutely makes sense, but I suppose what I’m getting at is that if the NAM has that much snow in the Ohio Valley at 84, then I’m having a hard time believing the rest of it at the same time. I mean...it’s no RGEM, so it has to be junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run? I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z. Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant. I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone. I was strictly talking about the slp track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 0z NAM certainly wasn’t as tucked as most other models, but the low was pulled farther west than 18z. Dry slot obviously an issue but I don’t hate the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Down to 22/13. DP creeping up so the temperature will likely remain steady at 20-22 then slowly rise as the sun comes up and it starts snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 When’s our next model drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate the nam. You're gonna hate the RGEM in about half hour 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The nam is a complete disaster 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The NAM reforms the 500 low over NJ vs the 12z Euro doing it over us. We quite simply can’t have a 500 low north of us. It doesn’t work. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I wouldn't say that so definitively yet... This storm has 12+ written all over it for my hometown in NY. Seen this song and dance sooooo many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 850 mb winds on the NAM are ripping southeast at over 40 knots 0z Monday which torches the mid-levels I-95 south and east. This is significantly higher than any other guidance has and the SLP track is also farther west. Also, checking out the obs: this is anecdotal, but could support a deeper ULL: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ji said: The nam is a complete disaster You know the drill. 6z will show 12-18 area wide just to show 3-6 at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ji said: The nam is a complete disaster Not really. It aligns perfectly with our climo. It is probably wrong. But will you really be shocked if it isnt? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not really. It aligns perfectly with our climo. It is probably wrong. But will you really be shocked if it isnt? A transfer that gives DC 4” and NYC 20”+. Yeah, that tracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Latest SREF has increased since last run which can’t be bad... It had been going down for the last several in DC, so this is nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 lol - temp is slightly rising here, altho our dews are climbing. 34/16 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach the Tennessee and Ohio Valley into Sunday morning. This low will track into the Mid Atlantic region on Sunday, transferring its energy off the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia Tidewater region Sunday night into Monday. The low will strengthen off the Delmarva Peninsula Monday afternoon and Monday night, tracking northeastward on Tuesday. High pressure will then return for the middle portion of next week before low pressure and its associated cold front may impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY/... Fcst through 00Z Mon remains on track and with high confidence that all areas except Calvert and St. Mary`s will get a good plowable snow of around 6 inches or more. Fcst confidence after that time decreases due to mid-level dry slot moving in, uncertainty in sfc temperatures, and amount of QPF. Model guidance do show ENE convergent flow into strengthening low pressure off the coast with potentially as much as 0.15 inches liquid equivalent which would likely be all wintry. I think we could see some good ice accretion more than what models are suggesting especially for areas west of I-95 where temperatures will likely stay in the upper 20s. Areas south of the Capital Beltway will likely rise above freezing to keep precip as liquid Sun night into Mon morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: 850 mb winds on the NAM are ripping southeast at over 40 knots 0z Monday which torches the mid-levels I-95 south and east. This is significantly higher than any other guidance has and the SLP track is also farther west. Also, checking out the obs: this is anecdotal, but could support a deeper ULL: What implication would this have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: A transfer that gives DC 4” and NYC 20”+. Yeah, that tracks. DC and its burbs getting jumped by a Miller B? Yeah, that tracks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 26/18 here in 21136Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not really. It aligns perfectly with our climo. It is probably wrong. But will you really be shocked if it isnt? When 7” of snow in 24 hours is a disaster or a Miller B screw job, I need to retire from the playing field. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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