Baltimorewx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Warnings hoisted for the rest of us. 6-12 for most north of DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 34/11 Probable outcome for my yard- Cold powder to wet snow, sleet, snizzle, and drizzle, a dryslot, then some rain, wet snow and maybe cold powder on the back end. Let's git it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, EB89 said: I suspect that 8-12 orange will come down to rt. 50 before onset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18Z HRRR drives the primary up into OH. Dryslots everyone after that. 3 or 4 inches with the waa. Looks like a typical Miller B for my area. Transfers off Chincoteague at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38F Dry. Feels like snow. Thin clouds out to west and it’s helpful when real clouds don’t take over until about 3 hours after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Radar looks fantastic to the west. 3 state wide wall of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Officially in my house in Charlottesville. Bought a mini weather station so I can hopefully get good temp/dew point obs but honestly I'll probably be a weenie and just take obs from the coldest station nearby. 42/9. Might be some virga for awhile tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 List of 2 part events since I've been in MD: All had a long dryslot and or mixing in the middle. 2/9-2/10 1/26/11 2/13/2014 1/13/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My weather radio sounded the alarm once again for another expansion of winter storm warnings. All of MD west of the bay is now under warnings. And DC, much of VA except for SE of Richmond, and parts of WV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HRRR drives the primary up into OH. Dryslots everyone after that. 3 or 4 inches with the waa. Looks like a typical Miller B for my area. Transfers off Chincoteague at hour 36. I know that’s the fail option and it’s NEVER off the table in a miller b but not sure I’d use the hrrr at that range. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, EB89 said: of note is that they have also upped the "high end amount/10% chance" map, potential of over a foot in places just N and W of DC: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 12z euro looked a little better here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting, and of course never easy. But, happy to be getting snow and cool to watch the evolution of the storm. Watch that third piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36/14 with blue skies and sun in Lucketts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 torching rn - up into the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: 34/11 Probable outcome for my yard- Cold powder to wet snow, sleet, snizzle, and drizzle, a dryslot, then some rain, wet snow and maybe cold powder on the back end. Let's git it. Some rain = how much? Seems like after last nights model hiccup things went more favorable for us again. I got a little too anxious and was even sweating in my shower. Any sleet is better than rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’m nervous for the Drizzle and Frizzle, but I hope they stay on the lower end. And really? January 33rd? Is this some old joke that I don’t get, or just sillyness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know we like to make fun of the NAM a lot but it seems to lead the way a lot with the trends on these storms inside of 72 hours. Hoping to see a favorable CCB trend starting with 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Some rain = how much? Seems like after last nights model hiccup things went more favorable for us again. I got a little too anxious and was even sweating in my shower. Any sleet is better than rain. Dunno. We will warm above 0 at 850 for a time, so it all depends on how much warming we see at the surface, and how much precip falls during that period. All guidance has us at least into the mid 30s on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know that’s the fail option and it’s NEVER off the table in a miller b but not sure I’d use the hrrr at that range. Oh. I sure hope it's wrong. But I dont like a short term model showing exactly what we would normally expect form a Miller B either. It does sit and spin off of OC through the rest of the run and back builds from there though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM is slower with the wave so far, that’s good for the eventual secondary capture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Really nice waa thump from the NAM. 5 inches+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam keeps the .4-.6 thump. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam is definitely colder this run thus far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Through 30 I see minor but definite improvements on the NAM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At 29 hours there’s a lot more Precip ashore in eastern NC and VA, I wonder if that bodes well for coastal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Jumps off OBX at 33, Nasty dry slot. DC gets almost 7 inches from the waa this run. Really nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: At 29 hours there’s a lot more Precip ashore in eastern NC and VA, I wonder if that bodes well for coastal impacts. Another clue is that band in WV/OH because it’s being caused by the same fgen boundary that will eventually become the deformation axis as the upper low and dying primary move east. Seeing that not blast up into Ohio and central PA is a good thing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM other than 06z is ever so slightly ticking colder and it stays snow longer and longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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