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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

18z NAM nest simulated radar for the DC-Baltimore corridor looks glorious, but the precip amounts....meh.     That said, it certainly seems that some of the localized bands will over perform and perhaps in a big way (and this won't be well captured by guidance), so at this point, I'm happy to see a lot of simulated reflectivity over this area.

I got 0.3" out of that first band, and that wasn't even really that heavy and only lasted about 45mins. If we can get some sustained snow for 2-3 hours, should be able to pile up quick.  

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

18z NAM nest simulated radar for the DC-Baltimore corridor looks glorious, but the precip amounts....meh.     That said, it certainly seems that some of the localized bands will over perform and perhaps in a big way (and this won't be well captured by guidance), so at this point, I'm happy to see a lot of simulated reflectivity over this area.

Seems a stretch to have snow into tomorrow evening, but you’ve been saying the last couple days that the nest is a good product and can be relied upon, so I’ll be really curious to see how it performs.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Seems a stretch to have snow into tomorrow evening, but you’ve been saying the last couple days that the nest is a good product and can be relied upon, so I’ll be really curious to see how it performs.

         It could certainly be overdone, but it's not on an island with the general concept.

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That whole area of snow in SE PA looks aimed right at us...hopefully it holds together well.  

I’m hopeful when that band gets here is when the steady heavy starts here. Got a quick .75” with that nice band an hour ago but it keeps varying and going back to light snow. That band rolling out of York PA now coincides with the arrival of the best deep moisture feed at the mid levels around the deepening (finally phased at all levels) low. The stuff we’ve been in so far had to deal with the pockets of dry air left over from being in the extended SW flow ahead of the stalled h7 before it made the transfer and phased. Shame we didn’t get the euro idea from 3 days ago where the mid and upper lows just amplified right through with no stall and jump. The secondary would have been captured further south and we would be getting what SE PA is. 

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