diatae Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 31/12 and clear skies here in the tornado capital of the mid Atlantic. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 North East Md 26.5 degrees 11.5 degree dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I would gladly have the WAA drying up as it gets to me if we get the backend that the RGEM forecasted. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28.8/10.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Interstate said: I would gladly have the WAA drying up as it gets to me if we get the backend that the RGEM forecasted. I'd be tempted to take that trade-off too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish Unisys still had those pressure change maps...you know we’d be hallucinating over that sht constantly on Sunday/Monday. There is a GOES east 850 relative vorticity product: https://www.eldoradoweather.com/satellite/ssec/watlantic-850mb-rel-vorticity.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I would gladly have the WAA drying up as it gets to me if we get the backend that the RGEM forecasted. Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'd be tempted to take that trade-off too! You can't have one without the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30.2 Let's Gooooo! Let's get these snow totals rising! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30/14 with a few clouds in Lake Ridge. Feels nice out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wow, impressive dew points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30 degrees here... nice to see temps around freezing now instead of having to wait and be like 44 degrees lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 32/13 Hopefully the last time I hit freezing for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33/13. snow over-spreading area by 8 am up this way? Later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nervewracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 30.4/16. My temp has dropped 8 degrees in 90 min. Impressive 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: can you transate that from metric to Imperial? No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looking at dews, there’s plenty of room for the column and surface temps to cool when precip finally makes it’s way into the area. gahhhh - so excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, rickymdwx said: edgewwood md temp 30.9 wind nw 5 dp 17 baro 30.31 How are you right on the other side of the Patapsco from me and 6 degrees colder... I'm at 37/13 in Glen Burnie. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: 29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nervewracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. Yes! I’ve been looking forward to tomorrow all week. I love a big shield of snow you can just watch roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You can't have one without the other. But wouldn’t the WAA drying up be a Signal that the primary low transferring to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28/10 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nerve wracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. And they can often over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 29/15 Sykesville ready to watch the snow creep closer and closer and closer and closer and closer and closer then finally get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28/13 after a high of 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: How are you right on the other side of the Patapsco from me and 6 degrees colder... I'm at 37/39 in Glen Burnie. Weird I would check your temp again. Even the Naval Academy is at 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 WBAL uses the RPM and FWIW, it seems to give us a nice deform band late Monday into Tuesday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. Thanks for this, Roger. Nice to hear there may be some hope that RGEM/CMC are not completely bonkers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The air is crazy dry right now... We may deal with a lot of virga but temps should plummet once we get echoes overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You can't have one without the other. Thought that the weaker WAA meant better coastal? That was my understanding from what Bob and a couple others were saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: 29/15 Sykesville ready to watch the snow creep closer and closer and closer and closer and closer and closer then finally get here Even a slower creep to get here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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