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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). 

I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nervewracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

can you transate that from metric to Imperial?

No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. 

Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? 

Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. 

My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. 

Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). 

I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nervewracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. 

Yes!  I’ve been looking forward to tomorrow all week.  I love a big shield of snow you can just watch roll in.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

29 and feelin fine (i live in a stream valley microclimate when its clear skies and dry air). 

I'm getting pretty fired up for part 1. WAA snow is the anti-thesis of nerve wracking. Radar extrapolation works, snow is steady, and no frustrating subsidence. The tradeoff is no high ratio heavies. If pt 2 pans out along the corridor it will be very nerve wracking. Death bands and subsidence puts winners and losers really close together. 

And they can often over perform.

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. 

Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? 

Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. 

My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. 

Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. 

Thanks for this, Roger.  Nice to hear there may be some hope that RGEM/CMC are not completely bonkers...

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