JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Temp down to 35 but I can throw a rock into 32 degree temps. Sleet mixed with rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: I’m struggling to remember a storm where guidance bounced around so much. Feels like every single run presents a different solution even while the event is unfolding in front of us. The Euro struggled with this one big time. I think the GFS and GFS Para did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4.2 with a crust. .42" liquid 26/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: No more sleet . Now small tiny pixie dust flakes . thats good to know. SPC mesoanalysis still showing that 850 warm layer above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: I’m struggling to remember a storm where guidance bounced around so much. Feels like every single run presents a different solution even while the event is unfolding in front of us. 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The Euro struggled with this one big time. I think the GFS and GFS Para did better. I think we should wait until the storm is finally done before analyzing guidance performance. Guidance typically struggles more in Ninas than in Ninos. Miller B's are also notoriously more difficult. From the point of view of sensible weather (snowfall) that we all care about, the GFS bros did do quite well if you look back over the last week. They were consistently showing snow maxes to our north. Now whether that was "right for the wrong reason" or not, that's worth a deeper look later this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: I actually never measured other than earlier in the day when we were at 3. I would say 4.5 maybe 5. I got 4.7 but it’s compacted down to about 4.2 from the sleet now. But I’ll take the sleet will help us hold snowcover if we get a warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Temp down to 35 but I can throw a rock into 32 degree temps. Sleet mixed with rain now 33.4 in Easton, would be nice to go below freezing to skate across the slush that is left 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Rain picking up in Gainesville with sleet pellets and an occasional mangled snowflake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I think we should wait until the storm is finally done before analyzing guidance performance. Guidance typically struggles more in Ninas than in Ninos. Miller B's are also notoriously more difficult. From the point of view of sensible weather (snowfall) that we all care about, the GFS bros did do quite well if you look back over the last week. They were consistently showing snow maxes to our north. Now whether that was "right for the wrong reason" or not, that's worth a deeper look later this week. Yeah, you're correct about waiting for sure. I just remember checking the para and it was consistently targeting the NY area while the Euro had us worried about suppression. BTW radar kinda looks promising right now. Really looks like a band is trying to form from DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm using mesos ...but you made me look . Actually 4-5" amounts along the Pa line...inline with short range guidance and Gfs That's why I said most areas, You folks up there have stayed frozen the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 College Park: Since yesterday noon, I've added a 1/4" of snow, a 1/4" of snow/sleet and perhaps 0.05" of freezing rain. 2 1/4" of snow/sleet overall (snuck into the lower edge of the CWG bust category with time to spare). Currently, freezing drizzle and 31/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Radar really starting to pick up now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 SREF plumes went up 6 inches for Aberdeen in 1 run with multiple over 10 BWI went from 2.0 to 4.5 with multiple 5+ members 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just went out to clean cars. Everything is ice. Whatever snow I got is crusted in at least a 1/4” ice. Sidewalks are coated in an unbreakable layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: SREF plumes went up 6 inches for Aberdeen in 1 run with multiple over 10 BWI went from 2.0 to 4.5 with multiple 5+ members Divide it in half, then take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Manassas ASOS now reporting light snow. Good sign...temps must be cooling aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Sleet here since at least 6:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Certainly is colder than many of the models thought for this morning. 26.2 here. Two day total of 3.2" snow and 0.38" precip, the last 0.05" was ice. CoCoRaHS two-day reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think we should wait until the storm is finally done before analyzing guidance performance. Guidance typically struggles more in Ninas than in Ninos. Miller B's are also notoriously more difficult. From the point of view of sensible weather (snowfall) that we all care about, the GFS bros did do quite well if you look back over the last week. They were consistently showing snow maxes to our north. Now whether that was "right for the wrong reason" or not, that's worth a deeper look later this week. Very nicely written. But...what are the odds for some over-achieving accum. during the next phase of this departing gentle "beast?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Everything including the roads coated in ice this morning 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Freezing drizzle has turned to pixie dust with occasional flakes. Radar looks better than I thought it would this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Rain/snow mix. 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Latest mesoanalysis has the 925 0C line right over my house and has shifted SE since earlier. 850s however are still about 3C. Probably explains the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Sleeting in Frederick. Looking forward to snow on snow... it has been a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Changing over to snow fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Shame we don’t have the column. Moderate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Heavy sleet in Herndon and the radar looks good just need the warm pocket to collapse with the heavy precip because if it does this could end up better than I thought for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It’s really graying outside now. 26. Just need a little precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Feels very near deep winter. 4.1" of snow and ice - about .1 snow and ice overnight. Everything is my neighborhood is crusted over. This snow will be here awhile from past experience with an ice cap. Fingers crossed for an additional bit of snow today, that would be hella cool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Radar filling in nicely so far. Moderate sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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