jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Primary low is down to 1008. DIE, MoFo, DIE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Extreme NE MD (Elkton). Beautiful fine powder falling. 27F and falling. 1.2” on ground at Hospital 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not. I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them. Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen. The suppression in New England moves out just in time for the wave to amplify along the coast. Problem is it de amplified the wave west of us first then because the ridge is east of the Rockies it reamplifies a bit too late. The slp track is fine. Transfer to NC then up. But we’re sitting under the dry slot ahead of the mid and upper level lows as the secondary passes through our sweet spot so it’s ruined. The mid and upper lows take too long to get their act together and phase in too late. Not sure suppression would have helped that. We’ve had some really awesome miller b hybrids with a primary into Ohio so long as the secondary develops south of us. But those cases (feb 10 2010 was one) the trough was amplifying not weakening on approach. The stall then wait to phase of the upper lows kills us because we sit under the dry SW flow at the mid levels as the coastal passes us. The runs that crushed us the trough didn’t open up and weaken as much it held and amplified to the coast without the weaken/open up/stall nonsense. Imo that was when it went wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snowing moderate to heavy in a band in Dundalk coming northward to the 695 beltway. 29 degrees and very adverse road conditions for the amount of snow we’ve seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, digital snow said: Idk this was a huge bust in NOVA. I am sitting at 2 compacted inches after 15 hours of snowfall. Pretty soul crushing dyer days of double digit fantasy maps Never, ever depend on a Miller B at our latitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CC shows mix line pretty much right along I-95 up to near Laurel/Bowie and other than that mainly south of BWI to Rock Hall. Pretty standard line for climo purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Puking sleet. Took the Jeep to pick up some forgotten groceries for wife for dinner and roads are awful. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rates picking back up in Reisterstown. 25/24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just a light mist/drizzle and just under freezing here (31.7/30.8) and has been like that for most of afternoon. Snow eased up before noon, and the final total here is 6.0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It's looking like maybe a brief period of heavy sleet/rain before being dryslotted, saving a lot of my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Man super fine grain snow here in Urbana. Thought it was sleet at first coming down at a pretty good clip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I got burned by the dry slot pretty bad in Centreville. Most of the accumulating snow was over by about 10. Just misty the rest of the day. Probably had about 2 inches before compaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I need to know how many pills have you taken today? Is this one of your “good” days? mm.. I can do anything. It's snowing all the way back to Illinois though, dry though. Good midWinter -NAO setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rates a little better now here in Dundalk. Stuff recovered again. Probably around 3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Parkville- Breezy, light snow. Got close to 3 inches today. The pixie dust snow was a bit disappointing today cutting down on accumulations, but I expected 2-5 today so wound up in that range. If I'm not misunderstood, we should still get light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon, maybe a few more inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said: mm.. I can do anything. It's snowing all the way back to Illinois though, dry though. Good midWinter -NAO setting up I was kidding. You mentioned a pivot. What were you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Moderate snow 2.2 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ruin said: sometimes when echos just vanish or just come out of no where I wonder if the radar wasnt just acting up sometimes and not picking it up or late in showing it drying up With snow, it usually means upper level energy is moving in and pockets of lift/dynamics are doing what they do. Upper level energy often pummels new weenie's brains because a blank radar = nothing happening at all for many hours. But there's plenty of available moisture in the column for precip. Just no mechanism to wring it out. Then energy moves overhead way up at 15k' or more snow starts seemingly out of nowhere. Like a miracle really. But if you understand 500mb vort and height panels it's not a miracle at all. It's expected. Not saying you should know this in any way shape or form because vast majority here dont. Tonight wont have a lot of that magic. Just remember this post during our next legit upper level system and make fun of weenies on the verge of suicide. If you want a visual, click through the 500mb vort panels on the nam and check out the closed circle over OH as it approaches and starts sending orange and yellow swirly things over our heads. The redder and oranger and swirlier, the more energy to work with. It's not nearly that simple to forecast but its a good way to understand what your seeing on radar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I am just an amateur but the NAM nailed this. It also nailed our last storm in Jan 2019 when predicted 3-4 inches became 10-12. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: With snow, it usually means upper level energy is moving in and pockets of lift/dynamics are doing what they do. Upper level energy often pummels new weenie's brains because a blank radar = nothing happening at all for many hours. But there's plenty of available moisture in the column for precip. Just no mechanism to wring it out. Then energy moves overhead way up at 15k' or more snow starts seemingly out of nowhere. Like a miracle really. But if you understand 500mb vort and height panels it's not a miracle at all. It's expected. Not saying you should know this in any way shape or form because vast majority here dont. Tonight wont have a lot of that magic. Just remember this post during our next legit upper level system and make fun of weenies on the verge of suicide. If you want a visual, click through the 500mb vort panels on the nam and check out the closed circle over OH as it approaches and starts sending orange and yellow swirly things over our heads. The redder and oranger and swirlier, the more energy to work with. It's not nearly that simple to forecast but its a good way to understand what your seeing on radar. I know what your saying but ive seen it in the summer time too. its raining at my house and radar shows blank. then 20 mins later it shows something to the east of me. or when im star gazing for the meteor showers forecast is for clear skys and clouds roll in but on the satellite no clouds. this happens with both the summer ones and the winter ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Being lazy ends up having some benefits. (Capitol Hill.) 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 What a great freakin' day. Walked 11 miles. Probably the most exercise I've had since the pandemic started. Just beautiful stuff out here. Snowball fight with friends. Snowmen everywhere on Grounds. This wasn't the biblical event that was dreamed of but I was out in the snow for 10 hours and I'm happy as a clam. Good luck to all of you on the backside. We all deserve a snow day. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Parkville- Breezy, light snow. Got close to 3 inches today. The pixie dust snow was a bit disappointing today cutting down on accumulations, but I expected 2-5 today so wound up in that range. If I'm not misunderstood, we should still get light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon, maybe a few more inches? Some of the best rates of the day right now, too. Finishing strong here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just did my last shovel of the day. Picked up .7 of fluff in the past hour with this outer band. Radar blossoming well to my SW. 5.7 inches so far. Snow and 27 degrees. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at meso. The cad wedge still pretty intrenched . Critical thicknesses still solid south of DC on north Definitely think the colder models nailed this part of the storm (RGEM, NAM, Euro, CMC). Now to see where we diverge from here. also the deeper CAD wedge could lead me to believe in more digging/amplification in the trough with our secondary low system. That could of course help bring this tighter into the coast and assist with the capture. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: What a great freakin' day. Walked 11 miles. Probably the most exercise I've had since the pandemic started. Just beautiful stuff out here. Snowball fight with friends. Snowmen everywhere on Grounds. This wasn't the biblical event that was dreamed of but I was out in the snow for 10 hours and I'm happy as a clam. Good luck to all of you on the backside. We all deserve a snow day. Love this! Had a similar type of day. It's not what we'd dream of, but it is plenty to enjoy in many ways! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My turn for no radar returns for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On an actual obs related front: some light accretion on the trees and my car is encased in a layer of ice. It's been misting all afternoon despite the lack of returns and just slowly getting iced up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Definitely think the colder models nailed this part of the storm (RGEM, NAM, Euro, CMC). Now to see where we diverge from here. also the deeper CAD wedge could lead me to believe in more digging/amplification in the trough with our secondary low system. That could of course help bring this tighter into the coast and assist with the capture. This is the SOLE thing I’ve been watching all day long. Pressure falls off the coast, 500mb, etc. Things are SO close to lining up for a more tucked solution. I think Baltimore and central / northern MD are still very much in the ball game. Next 6-12 hours will be critical. Better chance than not that things end up happening too late, but damn it’ll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Finally, some good snow back in Downtown DC. It had been mix of pixie dust and sleet pellets, but now ripping fat flakes, at least for now. Roads that had stayed wet all day, now covered in white. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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