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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. 

It was earlier this week but imo how it's happening on the ground is an old rerun at this point. That's prob not a coincidence. Deep under the hood might be unusual. Ground truth is not.  I think we can agree there. GFS is going to win this one for our yards. Every time I looked at it I envisioned this type of outcome (and it made a lot of sense even if I didnt like it) but I never compared any run over run changes in the upper levels or any fine detail at all really. I just broad brushed looked at runs in isolation when I had time click thru them.

Primary is in OH now. That's def not suppressed. Euro had a horizontal brick wall just north of our region earlier this week when it was exciting. Now the firehose is rocking NYC/CNJ/CPA. That's not suppression either. Maybe technically in the fine details it still all is but it's really hard to defend suppression looking at everything in it's entirety as it's happening/going to happen. 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Lol. Thank god it was cold today. It’s been nice to see everything completely covered in snow. But this is a bust in my book. I had about 2 hours of decent snow. Everything else has been pixie dust or flurries 

It was brought up by a met that the lack of cold air dynamics were poor in the NE areas of the forum,  the beach and areas far to my South did much better ( multiple inches ) compared to areas further North . At least so far.  

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously 

Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. 

18z ICON gives us some nice light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon/evening! Eastern shore looks to do well tomorrow night! 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Not going to post images but they definitely trended snowier with precip from the coastal tomorrow afternoon and night. 

If so then you have ops and short range models hitting on that. 

Tomorrow afternoon and evening may be the big win for me, not tonight.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. 

Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers

How about this Euro run from last week for this storm? 

823CFD85-6536-42EB-9BFD-1FA956B3217D.thumb.png.924b7ea78847f5713454b315744914f8.png

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Just now, jayyy said:

Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though. 

If I can achieve 6  to 8  I be delighted. 

Being a snow weenie and using 500 x close up I  am trying to figure out why there is a 4 to 6 over my house when everything else surrounding it is 6  to 8 come on ICON what the Fucck  :hurrbear: 

 

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