dman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 33.6 and changed over to light rain/sleet/snow mix after a lull. Accum. snow starting to come off cars. :( ETA: Meant to note that winds have been nearly dead calm throughout, occasional hint at SSE breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Northern tier getting banded pretty nicely it appears. Still refusing to look at radar but if your note includes balt city can confirm it continues to come down at a pretty good clip here. We have a chance to maximize the WAA piece way more than I hoped yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Stalled out at 3" around 1045 in Haymarket. Currently at 30F and spraying dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just measured at 1:30 here NW of FXBG. 5.1” and currently 29 with a light snow/sleet mix 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Right at 2" here so far. I don't do the snow board thing, so not accounting for compaction. This stuff is wetter than it was earlier. Temp is 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, feloniousq said: Rates and flake size noticeably improved in the last 10-15 min in Ashburn ...and now back to flizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Based on 18z obs the primary low has deflated to 1003 mb in n KY but the circulation is very flabby within 100 miles of the center, indicating that the coastal transfer is starting to develop. The wave formation near the coast is most evident near SAV, when an impulse now forming near the AL-GA border catches up to this coastal wave that should initiate the coastal as a separate circulation around 00-02z. Models seemed to be struggling with multiple coastal vortices that suddenly jump forward towards NJ, in reality there would probably be something more organized by 12z east of Hatteras. What this looks like is analogous to the blizzard of 1888 only aimed more at NJ/PA than LI/CT. There will quite likely be some enormous snowfalls in eastern PA and the contours around those maxima would be quite impressive even into MD, DE and NJ. Local amounts of 40" or even higher would not be surprising given the curved moisture feed aimed at one region for 24h. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Still refusing to look at radar but if your note includes balt city can confirm it continues to come down at a pretty good clip here. We have a chance to maximize the WAA piece way more than I hoped yesterday. Getting nothing right now in east Baltimore county but have about 2” otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Not as pessimistic as some here after looking at 12z guidance and current analysis. The GEM and GFS both show quite a strong curved trajectory towards ACY for the coastal and still hint at a stall if not a loop. While this would obviously jackpot e PA, last time I looked there are no states between PA and MD and that jackpot is only 30-50 miles into PA so would expect at least the northern tier of MD counties to approach 20" snowfalls -- the higher this jackpot goes, the better MD does, there would be no physical rule to say that the more snow falls in PA then less would fall in MD. Also the dynamics of this are quite unusual, especially if the CMC is right and they do after all have as good a set of the data input over the current complex upper pattern as any rival model would have. Looking at 12z analysis, the low in the Midwest is not stacked but has an unusual C-shaped vertical profile from 500 mb in nw IN to surface in se IN (at that time) with 700 and 850 back in IL. That will distort over 24h into the coastal setup and the hook will then be rotated about 90 deg (counter-clockwise) anchored by a 500 mb low over VA, to a surface low bombing east of Delaware. I think with these unusual dynamics there could be more wrap around effect than you might expect with a more standard Miller B. As to bust calls at this early stage, most of the potential of this storm is Monday-Tuesday, I would not write it off anywhere in the mid-Atlantic and especially not in ne MD or n DE. It could be a 60h storm with an interruption later today, so even if 40 of those hours only produced 0.2" inch snowfalls that's still 8.0" and some of these hours tomorrow into Tuesday will produce considerably more, would expect at least moderate snow in some of the bands extending into MD (S+ obviously possible and will be widely reported in PA and NJ, NYC). Another consideration is that if a lot of very mild air dams up against a wall of cold south of Long Island while the low is stalling or looping, then some of that will be entrained west across NJ and PA and around the circulation which may create a warm seclusion, which is probably that feature on some models that rotates back across MD in latter stages of the storm. Anyway, bottom line is this will turn into an intense coastal almost without a direct parallel and do its own thing with memorable results, and you have a front row seat, enjoy. Nice Post...Thank You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Still refusing to look at radar but if your note includes balt city can confirm it continues to come down at a pretty good clip here. We have a chance to maximize the WAA piece way more than I hoped yesterday. Yes, we have a band on the way and more in line behind it. As @WxUSAF said, it ain't sexy but its steady. Should be a great afternoon. I'm heading out for a walk in the local cemetery in a few minutes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Ugh that better band is over me and still just teeny flakes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like its over for me.....Euro has another Big Dog potential storm next weekend..... 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1.1” at 1:40. .5”/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ugh that better band is over me and still just teeny flakes Looks like it's still maturing. Hopefully it's better by the time it's here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Based on 18z obs the primary low has deflated to 1003 mb in n KY but the circulation is very flabby within 100 miles of the center, indicating that the coastal transfer is starting to develop. The wave formation near the coast is most evident near SAV, when an impulse now forming near the AL-GA border catches up to this coastal wave that should initiate the coastal as a separate circulation around 00-02z. Models seemed to be struggling with multiple coastal vortices that suddenly jump forward towards NJ, in reality there would probably be something more organized by 12z east of Hatteras. What this looks like is analogous to the blizzard of 1888 only aimed more at NJ/PA than LI/CT. There will quite likely be some enormous snowfalls in eastern PA and the contours around those maxima would be quite impressive even into MD, DE and NJ. Local amounts of 40" or even higher would not be surprising given the curved moisture feed aimed at one region for 24h. Wow. Hope you’re right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Bummer on the personal. Where is home vs now? The book on Miller Bs is mostly don’t work around here. They are 100% forecasted and 25% realized. This is Again where analog experiences will Trump models every time I am realizing now most all posters don’t have 20-50 years of weather observations and recordation so naturally models are the focus. I mean honestly models have shown coastal from 150 miles east of OC moving improbably back west, a 24 hour stall, then tucked around Norfolk and now down along NC/SC coastline. The downright hatred of me because I say these things is hopefully now muted by one of the best longtime posters here returning from a lengthy absence and saying a lot of the same things. i want a big event and good weather experiences at all times but there is more to observations, anticipation, forecasting and reporting during the event than models. I grew up in Baltimore and live in Midland, TX now. I lived in Baltimore/MoCo area for basically 28 years, so I know how Miller B’s work in climo. The models were not showing an improbable western motion considering the UL evolution of the 5H and 7H levels as both were displaying a more southern transition latitude which would invoke a capture of the low level circulation and force it back westward between Norfolk and OCMD. It’s happened plenty of other times. The storm is still going to stall, just at a further north latitude due to a late capture as the 5H low and 7H inflection over the OH Valley went further north than most global guidance was indicating. However, the ensemble guidance did keep that within the envelope of reason, so there was concern for a northern trend always on the table based on both climo and NWP signals. I never poopoo observational analysis since it is very important with regards to trends, but you can’t base it during long range forecasting with time frames of significance to EM’s and DOT workers for prep times and decision making. That’s where NWP comes in and inside 72 hrs is when you utilize Observational trends and NWP to your advantage. I’ve seen your take on modern NWP, and as someone who analyzes the statistical variance and overall scoring after UA and surface reanalysis, you don’t give NWP nearly enough credit for what it produces. Analogs are why Midland nailed the end of 2020 historic snowstormout here and we blew away our neighboring offices. I’m a huge fan of CIPS and it’s database. Your expertise in regional climo and historical data keeping will absolutely help you in varying setups and it is appreciated during short term trends, but it will absolutely not work with decision making at a local and state level where 72-96 hrs is necessary for planning and staging. Being overly prepared is better than the alternative, despite the respite it might incur from up top in government settings. I would never mute you for any reason unless you actually disrespected me on a personal level or are attacking me, so you’ll never get the mute. Hopefully you can cash this afternoon on more snow as I bathe under sun and the typical cirrus. I hope to get back East and extend my career while improving my forecasting abilities and helping the general public. I also want to get back to the area I grew up in, or at least within the Northeast US vicinity. Enjoy the snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Looks like its over for me.....Euro has another Big Dog potential storm next weekend..... Yummy, I might bail on this storm for next weekend. GGEM is very similar 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not quite as good for here this run- it mostly jacks right along and west of the bay- but the general idea is the same. Some backside love. Oh yeah? So Baltimore City still in the running for the ccb? Thought the NAM killed that idea, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow flakes are getting g bigger and rate is increasing. About 2” on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1.6" so far Been outside playing with the kids- this is the first storm my youngest son has been out in (and he's almost 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ugh that better band is over me and still just teeny flakes Had a mini version of that here. Flakes are taking their time falling I suppose. Best rates/flakes (not impressive but notably different) happened after the band on radar was moving out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2.5" in my part of Balt City as of 1:50 pm. Snowboard cleared. Flakes have backed off now to the finer ones. Would like to get the bigger flakes to return/hang on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32 and snow has more or less stopped in odenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Tiny sneet falling that requires a microscope to see. Temp now at 34. Streets wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Definite snow uptick imby in last 10 minutes. 29.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Had a mini version of that here. Flakes are taking their time falling I suppose. Best rates/flakes (not impressive but notably different) happened after the band on radar was moving out. Yeah, they just became non-microscopic. When the bigger flakes have happened today, it’s a respectable 0.5”/hr or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Right now under the best band of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snowfall in Ashburn ... 3” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 29 and wimpy light flakes in Townsend, DE. Hoping this picks up eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I don’t have to squint anymore to see the flakes, so I guess that’s a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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