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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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  On 1/31/2021 at 3:54 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, was just looking a that.  Whatever it's worth, it shows ~2" in DC, with maybe 2-4" just north of there (MoCo/HoCo, etc.), and more heading toward the M/D line.  This is a 24-h amount from 00Z tonight through 00Z tomorrow night.

snku_024h.us_ma.png

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Acceptable in my eyes

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  On 1/31/2021 at 2:09 PM, gopper said:

Not sure about main roads, but side roads are instant coverage.  Coming down pretty good now, so I would think some main roads are covered, but they usually do a good job keeping 83 pretty clear.  Drive safe!  Hershey open now?  Rides and everything?

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Did Hershey lodge and chocolate world for my daughters birthday. Not too busy. Roads in PA were not great, MD highways are good. Nice snow falling here in Lutherville with a temp of 27

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  On 1/31/2021 at 3:56 PM, WxUSAF said:

Both drop a solid 0.5” or more of liquid as snow before any mix this evening, so that’s nice to see. Difference is in amounts tomorrow. Guess we’ll see what the King decrees later.

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        Yeah, I didn't explain myself well, but I was referring to tomorrow - big differences in rates for Howard County.

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  On 1/31/2021 at 3:55 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

Banding starting to form across northern MD. I know a lot of people are disappointed so far with rates, but some of the models showed this gradual increase in rates yesterday.

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Rgem was really the only model that showed a giant wall of snow (going from cloudy skies to 1” per hour rates within minutes) Most other models showed 3-6” from the WAA occurring over a 12+ hour period w/ the most snowfall falling in the higher elevations of SWVA.... this is pretty much in line with what’s happening on the ground. Problem is people call it a “WAA thump” and expect heavy snow. It was never going to be a thump. 

Our biggest task today will be checking out the pressure fall maps off the east coast to can get an idea of where this transfer will begin to happen. Literally 50 miles south of the GFS and we are in a much different ball game for part 2 area wide. 
 

12z GFS actually, to me, leaves the door open for improvement by tomorrow. We are so close to a 12+ snowstorm area wide with that look, it just all comes together a hair too late

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Need rates. 

31/27

Not just a hobby for me. I'm a landscaper so this effects snow removal for me. 

Snow started around 7:30. Quickly stuck to everything. Had a little dry spell around 9:30. Roads and even side roads clear now and rates having a hard time overcoming. Snow will not accumulate on roads with a temp of 31 and light/moderate rates. Would be a big bust for snow removal companies in AA county if this continues. 

All guidance has the heavies coming in later this afternoon. So i'm still cautiously optimistic. 

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  On 1/31/2021 at 4:03 PM, high risk said:

     I'm looking at the 24h QPF totals between 12z Monday and 12z Tuesday.      GFS para looks considerably drier to me.

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Huh, yeah I see that now, but total precip through Wednesday morning is very similar. Haven’t looked close enough yet to see where para makes it back up.

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  On 1/31/2021 at 3:52 PM, clskinsfan said:

The gfs gives me another .75 of QPF. I will take that in a heartbeat. It is lightyears better than what the meso's are showing. 

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Am I the only one in awe of the disparity there? GFS insists we I-81 folks get 8-14 inches, and the NAM’s are a fraction of that. I’d like to think the GFS has a better idea as it hasn’t budged in a number of runs now.

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  On 1/31/2021 at 4:07 PM, WxUSAF said:

Huh, yeah I see that now, but total precip through Wednesday morning is very similar. Haven’t looked close enough yet to see where para makes it back up.

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         It's heavier during the 00-03z or so window this evening - could be a sneaky period of moderate snow (or sleet, per the NAM nest) here before a change to light sleet or rain.

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  On 1/31/2021 at 2:29 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Might be logging off for the rest of the event. I have a ton of friends who work at Mount Holly and CTP. If the NAM's and the latest Hi Res are right, they are going to get absolutely hammered by the public. It would be a terrible time to score a coup for the NAM. If my map busts, oh well. If theirs does, they take a beating. What a massive kick in the groin if this model suite is right.

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Don’t say that...if the coastal craps out it’s not so bad for south of me. They get 4-8” from the WAA but almost all my snow has to be from the corral. I’m getting fringed by the WAA 

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