stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Hahaha I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not. I don’t think we’re out of the game for the CCB, it’s just that that’s the 2nd or 3rd euro run with a nice stripe around or over Baltimore. Im being serious re: CCB. I hope to God you're right, but the 18z Euro had us just a hair away from the CCB. And I don't know the intensity of that lightest shade of blue on the Euro, but I can't imagine that it's heavy. Nice to see it over us until early Tuesday AM...but if it's like .01 inches per hour....eh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, JSharp said: I'm starting to get worried about the second half of the storm here in SE PA. Worried you need a snowblower? The plows will have too much snow to clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, ovechkin said: Meanwhile DCA is UP a degree to 34. Can’t make this up. Damn 10 degrees warmer there. UHI FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 30.9/14.0 at 5:55pm 27.7/14.9 at 6:55pm 26.4/15.7 at 7:45 27.1/16.6 at 8:15 Silver Spring, inside the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: We got an automated call from bge today about possible power disruptions. Is it supposed to be windy during the coastal Monday? I think someone posted that there are now indications of pretty strong winds at least along the coast. Maybe those work inland? 28/15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS That is a nice cluster just se of Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The euro was about 20 miles too far northeast and way underdone with the ccb in that 2010 example. Fwiw 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS You would think alot of those low positions would get dc and on north into the CCB . Maybe even a bit south of DC into the good stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS That could just be due to the double barrel or strung out low configuration you get as it’s captured and loops. Where exactly the lowest pressure is any any one time isn’t that important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 25/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 As the storm begins to approach the area, here's a shameless plug for my tool to help ease your radar hallucinations. Specifically for the HRRR simulated radar. jmmweather.com/hrrr The green regions in KY, NC, WV show that it's under-doing the precipitation extent there right now. Good luck to you all down here! 9 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: You would think alot of those low positions would get dc and on north into the CCB . Maybe even a bit south of DC into the good stuff Any stalled from Lewis Delaware south should at least get some ccb into DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I think someone posted that there are now indications of pretty strong winds at least along the coast. Maybe those work inland? 28/15 here. Where the CCB sets up I can see it transporting winds down like a tropical storm. I seem to recall in 2016 that the banding coincided with heavy snow and gusty winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s really consistent. It seems to be where the moisture transport from the secondary is meeting up with the inverted trough from the dying primary and enhanced by instability from convergent winds ahead of the h5 and old h7 lows. The gfs has it too just further northeast and it’s not as sharp since gfs sucky resolution and all. On top of its sucky everything else. These storms are pretty fun with surprises in real time. Not huge shifts obviously but as long as your in the game for part 2, anything is possible. Cuts both ways but man, if those yellow and orange stripes setup in our area, the obs are going to be off the chain. I never expected to get raked like I did with the second feb 2010 storm and Jan 16 leading in. But those bands were ridiculous. No model really had that in my yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I think someone posted that there are now indications of pretty strong winds at least along the coast. Maybe those work inland? 28/15 here. I haven’t a clue, was surprised to get that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Im being serious re: CCB. I hope to God you're right, but the 18z Euro had us just a hair away from the CCB. And I don't know the intensity of that lightest shade of blue on the Euro, but I can't imagine that it's heavy. Nice to see it over us until early Tuesday AM...but if it's like .01 inches per hour....eh Yeah I dunno obviously I’d rather be further north and East, and climo argues for that of course, but it’s not that far away. I’m gonna enjoy the overrunning snow tomorrow but not give up hope on the CCB til the last minute. Even that January 2019 storm with that jacked up CCB surprised me a bit, I was sure it wasn’t gonna happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Damn 10 degrees warmer there. UHI FTL. I'm in NW DC. It's 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well the 0z HRRR has Charlottesville getting just under 7" by 5pm tomorrow so there's that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 BIG improvement for N VA on eps. Kinda what I had expected with the op track 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS Which one of those do we want? I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops correctly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: BIG improvement for N VA on eps. Kinda what I had expected with the op track Can you post the 12z for reference please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jmister said: As the storm begins to approach the area, here's a shameless plug for my tool to help ease your radar hallucinations. Specifically for the HRRR simulated radar. jmmweather.com/hrrr The green regions in KY, NC, WV show that it's under-doing the precipitation extent there right now. Good luck to you all down here! I notice that showing a lot of extra precip around the fringes. Do you find that your product shows HRRR underestimating the outer-edges of precip. often, or is this unusual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, gopper said: Which one of those do we want? I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops correctly..... I’ll take the 3 at the bottom that are most like the reggie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: BIG improvement for N VA on eps. Kinda what I had expected with the op track When you say N. VA.....where are you referring to? In the metro area, that means like Alexandria/Arlington, FFX region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, gopper said: Which one of those do we want? I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops You've been here a long time and should know the answer. Whichever ones hits your yard the hardest even if there are sacrifices for others. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: When you say N. VA.....where are you referring to? In the metro area, that means like Alexandria/Arlington, FFX region And Prince William County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Worried you need a snowblower? The plows will have too much snow to clear? If the RGEM comes true. A snowblower will not help. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, gopper said: Which one of those do we want? I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops correctly..... The ones farthest south but fairly tucked in would match the RGEM closest, not that it means you would get the same snow amounts but.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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