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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hahaha I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not.  I don’t think we’re out of the game for the CCB, it’s just that that’s the 2nd or 3rd euro run with a nice stripe around or over Baltimore. 

Im being serious re: CCB.  I hope to God you're right, but the 18z Euro had us just a hair away from the CCB.  And I don't know the intensity of that lightest shade of blue on the Euro, but I can't imagine that it's heavy.  Nice to see it over us until early Tuesday AM...but if it's like .01 inches per hour....eh

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS

D4A77A76-AA9B-4E4C-8C8C-7D1B4CF8C025.png

That could just be due to the double barrel or strung out low configuration you get as it’s captured and loops.  Where exactly the lowest pressure is any any one time isn’t that important. 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I think someone posted that there are now indications of pretty strong winds at least along the coast. Maybe those work inland? 

28/15 here. 

Where the CCB sets up I can see it transporting winds down like a tropical storm. I seem to recall in 2016 that the banding coincided with heavy snow and gusty winds. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s really consistent. It seems to be where the moisture transport from the secondary is meeting up with the inverted trough from the dying primary and enhanced by instability from convergent winds ahead of the h5 and old h7 lows. The gfs has it too just further northeast and it’s not as sharp since gfs sucky resolution and all. On top of its sucky everything else. 

These storms are pretty fun with surprises in real time. Not huge shifts obviously but as long as your in the game for part 2, anything is possible. Cuts both ways but man, if those yellow and orange stripes setup in our area, the obs are going to be off the chain. I never expected to get raked like I did with the second feb 2010 storm and Jan 16 leading in. But those bands were ridiculous. No model really had that in my yard. 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I think someone posted that there are now indications of pretty strong winds at least along the coast. Maybe those work inland? 

28/15 here. 

I haven’t a clue, was surprised to get that call 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Im being serious re: CCB.  I hope to God you're right, but the 18z Euro had us just a hair away from the CCB.  And I don't know the intensity of that lightest shade of blue on the Euro, but I can't imagine that it's heavy.  Nice to see it over us until early Tuesday AM...but if it's like .01 inches per hour....eh

Yeah I dunno obviously I’d rather be further north and East, and climo argues for that of course, but it’s not that far away.  I’m gonna enjoy the overrunning snow tomorrow but not give up hope on the CCB til the last minute.  Even that January 2019 storm with that jacked up CCB surprised me a bit, I was sure it wasn’t gonna happen. 

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5 minutes ago, Jmister said:

As the storm begins to approach the area, here's a shameless plug for my tool to help ease your radar hallucinations. Specifically for the HRRR simulated radar.

jmmweather.com/hrrr

 

The green regions in KY, NC, WV show that it's under-doing the precipitation extent there right now.

Good luck to you all down here!

I notice that showing a lot of extra precip around the fringes. Do you find that your product shows HRRR underestimating the outer-edges of precip. often, or is this unusual?

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Just now, gopper said:

Which one of those do we want?  I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops 

You've been here a long time and should know the answer. Whichever ones hits your yard the hardest even if there are sacrifices for others. 

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5 minutes ago, gopper said:

Which one of those do we want?  I'm guessing most of those in the bulls eye will work if the storm develops correctly.....

The ones farthest south but fairly tucked in would match the RGEM closest, not that it means you would get the same snow amounts but..........

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