osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: It is quite remarkable how different an outcome those two models are showing for our area given how similar those two panels look. If I didn’t know anything else and you showed me those two I would assume the snow amounts were pretty close between the two. Agreed. That was a really good post and it's amazing how similar those low positions are at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'm starting to get worried about the second half of the storm here in SE PA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 General rule with a miller b capture scenario I remember from model diagnostic sessions with Nese at PSU...and it’s worked almost every time historically and over my years of tracking. The cutoff to the CCB heavy snow band will be sharp and right about the latitude that the storm gets captured. There are also rules regarding how far west it gets but this is tucked in so tight we don’t have to worry about that it’s latitude not longitude that’s potentially going to hurt us. Right now all guidance has the capture due east of DC off the Delmarva. Some 50 miles one way or the other. That’s noise. But it’s significant if that 50 miles means a ccb cutoff at Rt 50 v Rt 70! It’s going to be close. For perspective the evolution of this and the current capture location is very similar to Feb 10 2010 with the exception we have a colder airmass in front so a better WAA wave to start. Now that worked out for DC but it was very close. 20 miles south of DC got a lot less snow. 20 miles north got a lot more! So it doesn’t take much adjustment to that either way to have a very different outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, 0z euro will go something like this http://imgur.com/a/00hGCWL Nice. Let’s do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: When does that corridor from DC north and East to Baltimore pick up the additional QPF? On the 18z euro panels posted I never really saw the CCB dip down into that area. Will didn’t post the last maps, but it looks like euro keeps snow going into late on Tuesday in that strip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, JSharp said: I'm starting to get worried about the second half of the storm here in SE PA. Oh yeah? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Man, Baltimore sure does look like a decent spot for this one. Euro steadfast with that area of heavier QPF from DC northeast. I think we're out of this one bud. Euro has us just missing by like 15 miles? 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Temps throughout the region certainly have dropped a lot more than expected. I don’t think it really means much, but it can’t hurt. Hey yall, WxUSAF just said we're all getting more snow than modeled. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Oh yeah? Worried about losing power maybe? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Where are you based for this storm? At location in signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I think we're out of this one bud. Euro has us just missing by like 15 miles? Hey yall, WxUSAF just said we're all getting more snow than modeled. Hahaha I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not. I don’t think we’re out of the game for the CCB, it’s just that that’s the 2nd or 3rd euro run with a nice stripe around or over Baltimore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well this looks nice in extreme southwest VA.. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, The Ole Bucket said: Well this looks nice in extreme southwest VA.. Just send that band up north and the waa thump should carry this system even if there is a Monday component. Not to mention it will all stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, 0z euro will go something like this http://imgur.com/a/00hGCWL Eta: why wont the gif display? Not allowed or am I too dumb? Nice thing about knowing your climo. No meltdown from me. Miller B's in my area are what they are. You take the thump and stop looking at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s like the fourth or fifth euro run in a row that has the stripe of heavier precipitation right over me. And that’s mostly the deform band. I’ll take it. It’s really consistent. It seems to be where the moisture transport from the secondary is meeting up with the inverted trough from the dying primary and enhanced by instability from convergent winds ahead of the h5 and old h7 lows. The gfs has it too just further northeast and it’s not as sharp since gfs sucky resolution and all. On top of its sucky everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 27/18 now. Not sure how much we’ll drop before the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 With respect to deform band - EPS has been pretty consistently trending stronger 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 29/14 - nice steady drops in temperature. 25/13 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I hope @psu correct because it does feel still a chance for this to be a Feb 10 2010 with a Colder air mass to start. That day a decade ago the snow never really stuck till evening, and then DC got a nice 3 inches after dark. Then dry slot and light sleet. Even at 7 am the next morning, most in DC assumed it was over but then boom at 8 am, which lasted till 5 pm. (At least North of Falls Church, Va).. Probably not likely this time, but at very least, as he noted, the front end should be more robust this time. Problem is most models suggest the Feb 10 2010 Balimore (nearly 2 feet) is Wilmington this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: With respect to deform band - EPS has been pretty consistently trending stronger I think I’m getting too old for this lol. About to have a seizure trying to figure out which one is the most recent run. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: With respect to deform band - EPS has been pretty consistently trending stronger It's trending the low north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps are Tucked Oh boy Mapz plz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Worried about losing power maybe? a roof collapse? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's trending the low north too. For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 23/10 here, dunno why CAPE's dewpoints are so high. Must have been hyperventilating on his weather station after seeing that OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Worried about losing power maybe? We got an automated call from bge today about possible power disruptions. Is it supposed to be windy during the coastal Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 27/18 now. Not sure how much we’ll drop before the onset. Interesting how much higher your DP is out there. I am at 12 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: 23/10 here, dunno why CAPE's dewpoints are so high. Must have been hyperventilating on his weather station after seeing that OP run in the woodz tree sweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 29/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Meanwhile DCA is UP a degree to 34. Can’t make this up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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