Warm Nose Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 30/4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 23Z RAP has a nice thump.....Yes we are down to the RAP. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Man, Baltimore sure does look like a decent spot for this one. Euro steadfast with that area of heavier QPF from DC northeast. Hi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there. 3 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Hi Reminder: I expect pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mappy said: At this point the NW crew really has nothing to fret over. Short of waa being drier and the coastal shitting the bed at last minute, we will do well up here. You , losetoa6 and PSU seem to be in a great spot . Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west. I might miss the best stuff just to my east. Time will tell. Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos tomorrow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from Deer Whisperer's house north Fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north Yes plz. We can have our little kumbaya circle together for the 00Z suite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north I’m hoping for a shift north...the melt downs will be epic... even better than getting actual snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there. The long duration is very interesting as well. Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago. < I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC. With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester. More later > 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: God I hate bringing up this storm but there was a time not long ago where the euro amd everything else lined up a great hit but in real time the upper low wobbled SE and slp ended up tucked and more than a little south of prog'd. This storm's result was a heartbreaker but we're talking a real time shift at hour 0 that the euro missed. It's a perpetual cycle of worry parsing it. A trend of getting the waa totals slashed AND losing the ccb piece to the north is worth worrying about tho. I'm not seeing it yet anywhere 12/5-6/03 is an example discussed in these threads the past couple of days of a good WAA surge, then drizzle/mix all day while waiting and waiting for the CCB. The radar progression actually strikingly matches what a couple of models have been showing: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-RegionalRadarImagery.html I was driving home from DC to Potomac after a night out clubbing and ran into snow covered roads near home around 2 am. That band through predawn dropped another 3.5” after the 4” from the WAA. It wasn’t as much as forecast but still ended up being a decent storm around here. At least DC proper will be colder than that event for the WAA phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: You , losetoa6 and PSU seem to be in a great spot . Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west. I might miss the best stuff just to my east. Time will tell. Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos tomorrow. Highstakes too. Enjoy what you get! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: I’m hoping for a shift north...the melt downs will be epic... even better than getting actual snow. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north I’ll will it south for you, friend! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mappy said: I’ll will it south for you, friend! You da best!!! 26/16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Has this been mentioned? ... the 1922 Knickerbocker storm looks very similar on historical weather maps at closest approach to DC, although it was entirely coastal in origin ... upper panels on wetterzentrale are obviously back-cast but look rather similar also. Timing (Jan 28-29) and the sort of otherwise bland winter season are also similar. Just a factoid among many. One other detail that caught my eye in assessing model scenarios is that offshore the warmer Gulf stream water has pooled out around 70W with a fairly cool coastal layer, there's no instant torching of lower levels available from contact with these relatively cold seas. This is why I tend towards accepting the RGEM solution, if I saw a sharper gradient out around the Texas Tower then perhaps more of a Long Ilsland bomb outcome. The 24 hours of east winds will probably advect some warmer surface layers briefly but that may just assist in the loop process and strand a cutoff secondary near the coast. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This looks a lot like PDII only a tad more north and not quite as amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north we have gotten south shifts all month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like center is just south of St Louis currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The winds inland will be strong, added to the heavier snow periods and it will look awesome outside ! Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 336 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 13 to 18 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: The long duration is very interesting as well. Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago. < I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC. With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester. More later > 1996? J/K...27 degrees.here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Temps throughout the region certainly have dropped a lot more than expected. I don’t think it really means much, but it can’t hurt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 When does that corridor from DC north and East to Baltimore pick up the additional QPF? On the 18z euro panels posted I never really saw the CCB dip down into that area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 30 minutes ago, Amped said: RGEM tucks all the way down almost to Norfolk. It is not close to doing that. Ehh it’s not that radical. The capture happens around 13z on both the euro and rgem. From that point on the low loops around for about 12 hours gaining very little latitude then extends and splits off a northern extension while the southern fujiwaras back south again. That happens off Wallope Island on the rgem and off Ocean City on the euro. Not that big a difference. But when your right on the southern edge...that little bit matters! But the bigger issue is the better moisture transport on the rgem. If you put that from the rgem onto the euro it would still be better. Not quite as good as the rgem but probably could add on another 3-6” in DC. capture moment on both models Euro RGEM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Has this been mentioned? ... the 1922 Knickerbocker storm looks very similar on historical weather maps at closest approach to DC, although it was entirely coastal in origin ... upper panels on wetterzentrale are obviously back-cast but look rather similar also. Timing (Jan 28-29) and the sort of otherwise bland winter season are also similar. Just a factoid among many. One other detail that caught my eye in assessing model scenarios is that offshore the warmer Gulf stream water has pooled out around 70W with a fairly cool coastal layer, there's no instant torching of lower levels available from contact with these relatively cold seas. This is why I tend towards accepting the RGEM solution, if I saw a sharper gradient out around the Texas Tower then perhaps more of a Long Ilsland bomb outcome. The 24 hours of east winds will probably advect some warmer surface layers briefly but that may just assist in the loop process and strand a cutoff secondary near the coast. The only line that matters here... “entirely coastal in origin.” This isn’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 29/14 - nice steady drops in temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Looks like center is just south of St Louis currently? A little to the west of Columbia MO, center is 997 mb and went over Whiteman AFB around 0030z. Rain-snow dividing line roughly DSM to LAF. Should be near STL by 03-04z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh it’s not that radical. The capture happens around 13z on both the euro and rgem. From that point on the low loops around for about 12 hours gaining very little latitude then extends and splits off a northern extension while the southern fujiwaras back south again. That happens off Wallope Island on the rgem and off Ocean City on the euro. Not that big a difference. But when your right on the southern edge...that little bit matters! But the bigger issue is the better moisture transport on the rgem. If you put that from the rgem onto the euro it would still be better. Not quite as good as the rgem but probably could add on another 3-6” in DC. capture moment on both models Euro RGEM It is quite remarkable how different an outcome those two models are showing for our area given how similar those two panels look. If I didn’t know anything else and you showed me those two I would assume the snow amounts were pretty close between the two. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m hoping for a shift north...the melt downs will be epic... even better than getting actual snow. Yea, 0z euro will go something like this http://imgur.com/a/00hGCWL Eta: why wont the gif display? Not allowed or am I too dumb? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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