dilly84 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Idk who he is. But he’s all in lol. The different offices but still. Im not too crazy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, fyrfyter said: Too much Whiskey. Must be clouding his thoughts. There’s no way SW OH sees that big of a difference over a few counties. This isn’t one of those types of events. Well we'll see. I'm going by nearly every model. Also the post with it clearly says because of tighter gradients, some areas could see a couple inches more or less in those tighter areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Well we'll see. I'm going by nearly every model. I hope you’re right, I’m just not too optimistic on that. I know every model does a poor job with the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Spread the wealth. We did it 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Indy: A few interesting observations at 15Z...temperatures throughout the mid Mississippi Valley and into western Illinois are generally running a few degrees lower than the bulk of the CAMs had progged for mid morning. This supports the concern many mets shared over the last 24 hours or so that overall model guidance was attempting to advect temperatures that were too warm too far north by late today. Even now...the HRRR for example tries to bring temps near 40 up to or just north of the I-70 corridor by 21Z which seemed far too overzealous to begin with and in light of the current temp trends looks that much more unrealistic. Even the new 12z Euro is too warm in many areas. The ramifications of this would be less "wasted" snow early on as it should be able to get down to/near freezing more quickly in areas that are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Spread the wealth. We did it You offend our Detroit, Peoria and St. Louis friends. Why can't Jan 99 storms grow on trees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 58 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Repeat of every event this winter. Grinder. Detroit does 'em best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR has been slowly trending colder the last few runs along/north of I-80 in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Even the new 12z Euro is too warm in many areas. The ramifications of this would be less "wasted" snow early on as it should be able to get down to/near freezing more quickly in areas that are above freezing. Since I'm a weenie at heart like everyone on here, waited to see the 12z Euro. Had a feeling models were too warm today. Without a southerly component at the surface and in a retreating dry air mass it's hard to warm much with overcast skies. I think highest I went in the CWA today was 36 degrees, maybe a few spots of 37 far southeast. Tried to do the best I could with hourly temp trends to account for evaporative and dynamic cooling at precip onset. Aside from the areas that'll have mixing issues for a bit, looks all systems go. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Let’s do this. Spitting a few flakes here right now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 light rain here now 35 at airport at 18z but dew of 25 30-35 dBZ suddenly developing south of me near lincoln snow/sleet aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 The CAMs are still doing that thing where the most intense reflectivity sort of hits a wall as it tries to get into Chicago metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The CAMs are still doing that thing where the most intense reflectivity sort of hits a wall as it tries to get into Chicago metro. 17z HRRR just parks and rots it over IKK. It’s like the I-80 wall, but in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I honestly have a pretty good feeling that it's gonna come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 17z HRRR just parks and rots it over IKK. It’s like the I-80 wall, but in reverse. "They" say these things like to drift north at the last minute. Seriously, hope it's not as dramatic as what the HRRR, etc are depicting. The way it hits a wall to that extreme does seem a little fishy but maybe RC or someone else can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: You should be higher than that now in the updated storm total. Your area looks good. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Went up indeed. I'm optimistic that this event will be on the top end of the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: "They" say these things like to drift north at the last minute. Seriously, hope it's not as dramatic as what the HRRR, etc are depicting. The way it hits a wall to that extreme does seem a little fishy but maybe RC or someone else can chime in. They. But yeah, I know the drill. Not my first storm, lol. Hopefully a lot of people do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 To the discussion on radar sites, I get a lot of mileage out of https://www.aviationweather.gov/gfa , COD and MRMS already mentioned; also weathernerds.org for site based. And of course wX on Android (for the Mosaic, set AWC images in the UI settings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone have the 15z plume qpf means for DTW yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z RAP showing over 7 inches of cement for NE Illinois and almost 6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Anyone have the 15z plume qpf means for DTW yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My call as of the moment is 2-4 for the Cincinnati area. I don't buy above that because only a couple models have tracked in that direction, but I also don't buy that this will be a dusting of snow because of the way the temperatures are running colder. But I have got to move north again one day. I miss western Illinois snowstorms. At least 6-8 inches is fun and we'd get 20 inch weenie runs sometimes to be excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z HRRR Kuchera snow map ending at 11 am Sunday. Disregard the lake enhancement part since it'll likely not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The HRRR is ramping the snowfall back up for east-central Iowa. The 18z is the best run since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR is ramping the snowfall back up for east-central Iowa. The 18z is the best run since yesterday. As does the 18z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR is ramping the snowfall back up for east-central Iowa. The 18z is the best run since yesterday. Playing catch up after running warm for multiple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z HRRR significantly increased QPF/snowfall amounts across Chi metro compared to the several previous runs that came in drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, whoosh said: Interesting that none of the guidance is reflecting this in snowfall amounts. if you go one station south of DTW (TTF)and draw a Line East-Southeast from there to where I’m at, I’m near 7 inches and they are forecasting three maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lake effect seems overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Man cutoff will definitely be insanely close to me along I74. Models are wavering on whether I cash in or not. Obviously impossible to nail exact location and timing of the rain snow line when it's highly dependent on dynamic cooling. Temps were 35-36 here but have now dropped to 33 with light rain. If it weren't for that warm nose aloft would probably get wet snow soon. But hoping maybe we're running cooler and can changeover quicker but not holding my breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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