ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z HRRR dropping 16-17 inches in lake county near lake michigan no way its right but can always dream. It was way to high for the last storm with additional lake enhancement/lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Lake effect seems overdone? Lake effect IS overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Already snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yeah, toss the amounts on the western side of Lake Michigan. The lake effect parameters pretty much suck for this setup and the HRRR has been overdoing lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Playing catch up after running warm for multiple runs It also hangs the deformation zone over E IA for several hours early tomorrow morning. Which is why we see 6" as opposed to the 4" it would be otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Already snowing Here too. Light and blowing sideways. Gonna be fun later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, toss the amounts on the western side of Lake Michigan. The lake effect parameters pretty much suck for this setup and the HRRR has been overdoing lake effect. Counterpoint ride it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Spitting flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: You offend our Detroit, Peoria and St. Louis friends. Why can't Jan 99 storms grow on trees? This is definitely not spread the wealth from Detroit to Toronto corridor lol. Of course when that usually happens Chicago misses out. Indiana and Ohio are definitely more due for a 6"+ storm than anywhere north of I 80, but a true spread the wealth storm that would envelop all or most of this sub is extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREF cut QPF back significantly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: SREF cut QPF back significantly model time is over. look out your window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Counterpoint ride it Guess I should rephrase to say those amounts near the lake would only verify if everybody else overperforms. Not gonna have a 6" gradient between the lake and inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Acceptable 18z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Radar looks pretty epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just started snowing here. It’s been all snow with some nice flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Only 1/2SM in TAF for both ORD/MDW. I’ll take the under and say they dip to 1/4SM at some point, especially at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone think NWS bumps snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, vortex said: Just started snowing here. It’s been all snow with some nice flake size. NAM has wrap around going until after 00z tomorrow for NE IL enjoy your 28 hours of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, vortex said: Just started snowing here. It’s been all snow with some nice flake size. I’m downtown today, and it’s been lightly snowing for an hour or so. Mostly rimed flakes. But as you said, flake size is real nice right now. If we can hold onto to that for the meat and potatoes of this event, then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Starting to see some flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam almost looks like the rgem now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I’m downtown today, and it’s been lightly snowing for an hour or so. Mostly rimed flakes. But as you said, flake size is real nice right now. If we can hold onto to that for the meat and potatoes of this event, then... Definitely. Looks like some better returns about to swing through shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Anyone think NWS bumps snow totals. MKE already has, albeit not by much. Went from 5-9 for the far SE counties to 7-10. LOT also working in this so wording on the latest AFD: For an additional tweak from the previous forecast, based off very consistent ensemble probabilities and ingredients lining up for high QPF and heavy snow into portions of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana this evening, confidence has increased in a swath of 8"+ amounts, including interior portions of the city of Chicago. Don’t think they will change amounts (at least not much) but confidence does seem to be growing that we could see some local amounts approaching or maybe exceeding double digits. Wait and see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Nam almost looks like the rgem now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If lake enhancement does happen, ALEK is going to be a very happy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, fyrfyter said: I hope you’re right, I’m just not too optimistic on that. I know every model does a poor job with the WAA. This is 100% the reason why ILN and I are staying low. January 19th 2019 is a prime example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: This is the most confusing forecast ever for us here in Indy. And we both know have been through a ton of these 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'd be a little surprised if there aren't at least isolated 10"+ amounts in the LOT cwa. Favored areas would be near the lake and around/south of I-80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting to see how this plays out, can't see it going too wrong based on radar alone, hope things come together for a respectable hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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