Sciascia Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Current GFS on top, GFS-Elect on bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If you look reaaaaally close you can see the WFO borders lol. I'm surprised that ILN left Delaware county and that CLE left their southern counties out of their warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 FWIW they added a "and locally higher" to the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I feel like I've made out like a bandit in Union county. Clock keeps ticking for most of the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I feel like I've made out like a bandit in Union county. Clock keeps ticking for most of the state. Can you please share the link to this website. Ive seen these kinda days since warnings maps used for severe weather. Something like 2000 days since a tornado watch in detroit i think lol. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Always FWIW, but the 9z RAP was something. NSFW snow totals to the south/southwest of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I feel like I've made out like a bandit in Union county. Clock keeps ticking for most of the state. I’m in the clock keeps ticking range. 742 is also the number of days since we have seen 2.5” of snow at CVG in a 24 hour period. I watch people complain on here about not getting as much snow as they want. I laugh and I think “you really have no idea, what a lack of snow is.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 To be fair. Toledo should be in a WSW. 4-7” is definitely WSW warning. Especially for that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: I’m in the clock keeps ticking range. 742 is also the number of days since we have seen 2.5” of snow at CVG in a 24 hour period. I watch people complain on here about not getting as much snow as they want. I laugh and I think “you really have no idea, what a lack of snow is.” To be fair, climate doesnt support snow and snowcover as much the further south you go towards cincinatti. But yea people need to put things in perspective before they complain about the lack of snow. I live 40 miles north of detroit and I don't think ive had more than 3 inches in a 24 hr period this winter, and it happened maybe once last winter in the early november snowstorm. Kinda rare this far north. The lack of big snows the past 3 winters is frustrating but it happens and we had a good run prior. Ive learned to be more happy for those that cash in on snow. Good karma. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Had a feeling start time would be early Hoping onset earlier than 6-8pm for far NE IL. Would be nice to see some heavier rates before dark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: To be fair, climate doesnt support snow and snowcover as much the further south you go towards cincinatti. But yea people need to put things in perspective before they complain about the lack of snow. I live 40 miles north of detroit and I don't think ive had more than 3 inches in a 24 hr period this winter, and it happened maybe once last winter in the early november snowstorm. Kinda rare this far north. The lack of big snows the past 3 winters is frustrating but it happens and we had a good run prior. Ive learned to be more happy for those that cash in on snow. Good karma. While that may be true, we are down on average winter snowfall by 8” right now. So, we didn’t get much of a winter last year and this year is worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm a bit bummed. My NWS forecast has 3-7. Seems a bit low. SREF plumes for Gary are pointing to almost 10". The NAM versions are on the lower end of the spectrum. You should be higher than that now in the updated storm total. Your area looks good. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 As a special storm day deal, until I go to bed later this morning, if anyone has any LOT CWA specific snow forecast questions, feel free to ask away and I'll do my best to answer. The overnight forecast that I put together in collab with WPC and surrounding offices attempted to toe the line between playing it slightly conservative vs what potential higher end outcome could be and giving an idea of the areas where we think have the best chance to end up in the 8-9" range or even higher. Those are the areas in the 8-12" range on our snow map. Note that even though the snow map range is 8-12" I think the highest point amount I have anywhere is a bit over 9".Enjoy the tracking today and I'll be up to enjoy the ++SN this evening! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Enjoy the tracking today and I'll be up to enjoy the ++SN this evening! Very appreciative of all your contributions, Rick, here and from the office. I'll be resting the day in prep for some long hours shoveling the wet stuff until I exhaust the beer and energy supplies, targeting midnight. It's been a few years since I've partied this hard. Drier event would be welcome tradeoff for higher totals. Will monitor obs for trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: As a special storm day deal, until I go to bed later this morning, if anyone has any LOT CWA specific snow forecast questions, feel free to ask away and I'll do my best to answer. The overnight forecast that I put together in collab with WPC and surrounding offices attempted to toe the line between playing it slightly conservative vs what potential higher end outcome could be and giving an idea of the areas where we think have the best chance to end up in the 8-9" range or even higher. Those are the areas in the 8-12" range on our snow map. Note that even though the snow map range is 8-12" I think the highest point amount I have anywhere is a bit over 9". Enjoy the tracking today and I'll be up to enjoy the ++SN this evening! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk This is great. Thanks. Great write up this AM btw. Unfortunately, alot the chi town crew burnt themselves out model watching until 4 am it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 ^ blip gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Can you please share the link to this website. Ive seen these kinda days since warnings maps used for severe weather. Something like 2000 days since a tornado watch in detroit i think lol. Thanks. It doesn't look like a Winter Storm Warning has been issued yet this season for DTX's CWA. In fact, the last one was issued back on 1/18/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: As a special storm day deal, until I go to bed later this morning, if anyone has any LOT CWA specific snow forecast questions, feel free to ask away and I'll do my best to answer. The overnight forecast that I put together in collab with WPC and surrounding offices attempted to toe the line between playing it slightly conservative vs what potential higher end outcome could be and giving an idea of the areas where we think have the best chance to end up in the 8-9" range or even higher. Those are the areas in the 8-12" range on our snow map. Note that even though the snow map range is 8-12" I think the highest point amount I have anywhere is a bit over 9". Enjoy the tracking today and I'll be up to enjoy the ++SN this evening! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk They had mentioned in the forecast discussion concerns over heavier band rates making it as far north as northern tier counties. Would that be an issue here along with any mixing issues or is that more of a problem out towards I39 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ blip gone. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 They had mentioned in the forecast discussion concerns over heavier band rates making it as far north as northern tier counties. Would that be an issue here along with any mixing issues or is that more of a problem out towards I39 corridor?I think your location should be okay (maybe NW McHenry an exception to that) and you'd also be in the trajectory for lake enhancement tomorrow. Regarding that part of the AFD, it's something we noted on some of the CAMs that the heaviest sim ref seems to hit a wall and those 35-40 dbz echoes don't get all the way north. With it so close I wouldn't want to bank on that actually happening but it's an item to watch. Highest likelihood of being in that snow minima is out by Rockford, so Winnebago, Boone and Ogle. Western portion of Ogle and Lee look to have mixing issues through 5pm to as late as 7pm. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREF plumes for DTW are mean qpf of .62 (9z) and tot SN 6.17 INCHES Go one station further south of there just before you get to the Ohio border and you’ve got over 7 inches at TTF What’s with the poor ratios anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, Powerball said: It doesn't look like a Winter Storm Warning has been issued yet this season for DTX's CWA. In fact, the last one was issued back on 1/18/20. And I know for certain the drought has been even longer for Wayne County (not sure exactly how much longer though). 1-18-20 was the last time we had a Winter Storm Warning here in Wayne County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Can you please share the link to this website. Ive seen these kinda days since warnings maps used for severe weather. Something like 2000 days since a tornado watch in detroit i think lol. Thanks. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=92 Here you go! There's a lot of things to play around with so enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: 1-18-20 was the last time we had a Winter Storm Warning here in Wayne County Yeah, I found the data and edited my post. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2020-O-NEW-KDTX-WS-W-0001/USCOMP-N0Q-202001180300 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Someone is wrong... I don't know who. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Torching here. Up to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Torching here. Up to 33 Been watching that as well. I doubt it will trend colder between now and start time I'll trust the experts. But admitadly a little nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Going to ride a bit of a wire here between potential mixing and where the heavy returns start to diminish. Still fee pretty good about 6-8” provided we don’t mix real long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Reading through these forums, it's depressing moving from the Western Illinois University area, where we see at least some weenie number from time to time, to the Cincinnati metro area, where we're riding the line between 2 and 6 inches. Can we get a 20 mile south Euro shift? Doubtful, but I can hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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