Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Part 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So much boom and bust potential here with the unpredictability of the warm tongue. I feel for the NWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 ukie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GEFS Noteworthy uptick in the mean QPF. Have been looking at 00z soundings from TX and vicinity and the moisture quality is legit. Also on mid level w/v can see our burgeoning synoptic system has a deep layer feed from the Pacific from southwest of the Baja. So we're getting Pacific and Gulf moisture involved. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Guess what dethroned 3/9/1999 on the CIPS list? 2/1/2015 Obviously the nature of the blocking is not going to allow for the snow to get as far north. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Think there's going to be some discussions between KIND and KIWX on whether to upgrade to warnings or or issue advisories with the northern tier and southern tier respectively during the overnight AFD's. I can see points either way. I know the overlords to the NW never pay attention to us lol but I'm serious, this area from about 20 miles N of I70 to about 70 miles N of I70 in eastern IL, Central IN and West Central Ohio has got to be a nightmare for forecasters. It can more often than not be like nowcast central. It's not like I80. You bust the forecast here its the difference of 6 or 8 inches or 0 with ice or nothing. There's no cushion up or down for the most part, no well they said 8 I only got 2. I'm going for 8 with a better than 2-1 chance of busting low with a high of 10. IWX's call I think's good, Kokomowx's call is probably sweating less than I am. Placing all my bets on dynamic cooling and the fact forecast temps have been 2-4 degrees higher than observed for over the last month. Cards all in on this one with no arctic air, I must be nuts lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 10:1 Euro map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I have absolute confidence that we're gonna do good around here, but damn do I feel bad for Eastern Iowa. And miss me with that "they already got theirs" bs; way I see it, the more of us cash in, the merrier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lowering my IC call to 2". Expecting the majority of precip to fall as rain. Rain on top of 8" of snow, positively gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, hlcater said: The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs. Yeah, never underestimate the warm tongue of death. Interesting they are letting the WSW ride, with 2-4 accumulation wording instead of rolling to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Accounting for the above described feature we're bringing mixing into our west and southwest 1/4 to 1/3, which will eat into snow totals some there. East of wherever mixing makes it looks all systems go. 00z EPS 6+ probs actually beefed up for the LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 KIND pulled the trigger on warnings for it's northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 47 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: KIND pulled the trigger on warnings for it's northern tier. I'm a little surprised there are warnings all the way to the Indy area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREF mean is now over 11” at ORD. Most members fall between 10-15” with one over 20” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Snownado said: I'm a little surprised there are warnings all the way to the Indy area. I’m not ride the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Seeming more and more likely that this warm nose is going to be a major issue even further north and west. Hi res models before were at least showing a few hours of rippage here between 9pm and 12am but now looks like I may never changeover with initial band and may have to wait for any potential wrap around as the low pulls east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Seeming more and more likely that this warm nose is going to be a major issue even further north and west. Hi res models before were at least showing a few hours of rippage here between 9pm and 12am but now looks like I may never changeover with initial band and may have to wait for any potential wrap around as the low pulls east. I think Chicago will mix at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Gino27 said: So much boom and bust potential here with the unpredictability of the warm tongue. I feel for the NWS. I expect the warm tongue of death here. The models always underdo the warm air push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: I think Chicago will mix at onset Most everywhere will with marginal temps to start but you will changeover relatively quickly and will be ripping for hours. You're sitting pretty for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think Chicago will mix at onsetUnless you mean the usual mix seen when saturation is first occurring, we’re not going to see a legitimate mix this far NE.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Agree w joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm a bit bummed. My NWS forecast has 3-7. Seems a bit low. SREF plumes for Gary are pointing to almost 10". The NAM versions are on the lower end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 fwiw gfs up again at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Precipitation already being reported in Macomb. Let’s go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Had a feeling start time would be early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 06z GFS: 06z NAM: Yet, the NWS remains conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 shows still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gonna lower the call from 6-8" to 2-5" for this area. As intense as the precip will be there's just too much WAA to overcome. Wouldn't be surprised if we get another mega sleet dump as we transition from rain to snow early this eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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