February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

Phase 7 may be colder...but the cold that is on the table on the UKMET is unreal.  Now, it seems like 95-96 or one of those Nina winters, the MJO had virtually no influence on the pattern - meaning it rotated through the warm phases and remained cold in the East.  The snow from the past two days has been right in the middle of phase 6.  Last winter was phases 5-6 - was awful.  @TellicoWx I want to revisit a QBO conversation that we had last winter(I may have been wrong in retrospect) where you noted that the falling of the QBO was not as correlated to the bottoming out and rising of the QBO.  I am too lazy to dig back through the thread, but makes me wonder(even if the QBO is positive) if maybe the current phase of the QBO is actually helping us.  It may just be as simple as the -NAO has been a good card for eastern areas of the sub-forum.  

[Carvers Gap]

Watching the Euro roll.  Not to notable timeframes yet.  But this thought crossed my mind, we had thunder last week here IMBY...snow in it today.  I am telling ya, that rule works really well.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the Euro, verbatim,  is a little too far north for the Sun - Mon storm, except for SWVA and NE TN. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like it is going to to go for something again post hr 160ish... 

[Carvers Gap]

Just glad the Euro has a storm...IMO obvious the GFS is now pushing the progressive envelope.   Basically a weak reflection tries to cut into west TN, then a low on the SE Atlantic coastline forms and cuts inside of Hatteras.  Move all of that back about 150 miles, and that gets really interesting.  Much improved solution to 0z and very close to 12z yesterday.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like it may try to phase these two pieces 

[Carvers Gap]

Now, the Euro is markedly less cold behind that system than any other model really.  Opens the door for yet another storm.  Let's see where it goes.  

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure where this goes at 156, but that flow is basically just flat from TX to the Atlantic.  Door is open for a slider now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No precip panels yet, but suspect that it will be a minor overrunning event. The TPV strings out the N. stream piece too much to amplify. 

Talking about the two pieces of energy I mentioned above, not a reply to Carver's

[Holston_River_Rambler]

New piece coming onshore in CA at hour 168 might have a better chance at being Carver's slider:

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is now now on its own at 500...the CMC and GFS are waaaay different.  Looks like the Euro is slow coming out of the West again.

[Carvers Gap]

Let's assume the Euro is right about Sunday but gets hung-up not releasing that second wave....that is a 1-2 storm scenario.  Looks like a drag strip from Denver to Wilmington.  Guessing these models don't have the second system modeled well since there is so much spread with storm one.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Should be interesting to see what it does with the energy in Canada and the SW as the run continues:

[John1122]

Wave once is a nice event for east valley areas. It's crazy how tough it's been to get the west areas going this year. 

[Carvers Gap]

Not even sure the Euro is believable at 174.  1030 hp over OH and 1040 in SE NE....yet it rains here?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the Euro will make this next one a slider. The TPV over Manitoba should allow this second wave to amplify. But, I'm not watching the temps as much, so maybe it ends up being too warm, based on what y'all are saying. 

[Carvers Gap]

That second wave is not insignificant as much as the Euro loses the cold behind system on and then the model washes out.  Verbatim, it tries to pop a coastal(VERY weak with storm 2) - I think.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If not amplify, at least get the mid level flow out of the SW. 

[Carvers Gap]

Sounds odd, but I take that run in a heartbeat.  I think the GFS is pushing the cold too far and the Euro is too slow.  Fix those biases, and we are in the cone for at least one potential winter storm.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Be interesting to see how the EPS members deal with both waves. 

[Carvers Gap]

Going to have to see the ensemble.  The 12z Euro is at odds with previous runs and nearly all other modeling within this suite with the exception of the ICON after storm one.  The Euro can be notorious for seeing cold late.  A blend of the Euro and GEFS is not a terrible thing.   Probably what I would do at this point.  Have no idea what the Euro is doing after storm one though....Lots of potential.  Let's be glad we have storm one to track, and then take it from there.  LOL.  Most definitely going to be a lot of movement on modeling during the next few days re: situation after potential storm alpha/one.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS really wants to amplify a trough over the East about every five days.  That is NOT saying there is a permanent trough over the East.  Trough drops in and lifts out on three separate occasions.  That is a recipe for some wild solutions.

[Carvers Gap]

GEFS would likely mean that there is enough cold left over after each trough to cause ice or snow with WAA.  Pretty wild look.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro has yet another wave coming onshore in CA towards the end of its run. That one would have to run under the TPV piece that it says will be over Minn. at that time.  

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly can't decide which would be more interesting - GFS or Euro.  The Euro has a 1058 hp over southern Canada in the Plains at 216!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'd like to see just what wacky solution the Euro would throw out after the end of its run with all this energy:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are all three waves on the Euro:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Look how far south it has snow with the last wave (4) that was coming onshore in CA at the end of its run:

a 1056 with all that energy plowing into and beneath it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro high pressures after 200 are just insane.  There is a 1059 siting in MT late in that run.  I am going to make the assumption that the GFS is too fast and the Euro too slow with the cold.  The UKMET was lights out cold.  So, we have an active southern jet and severe cold(which presses the boundary near our area) coming in the day 5-10.  No idea if we score, but I take that 10/10 times if given the option.  

[Carvers Gap]

There are -66.1F temp anomalies at 240 of the Euro.  LOL.