February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS Para has the S/M event...

[Carvers Gap]

Do yourself a favor and go to Tropical Tidbits, select the 18z GEFS, then temp anomaly, then North American view, and just enjoy the d7-16 look.  

[Stovepipe]

Anybody up for the Euro?  

[snowmaker]

Yep do a little play by play, I haven't heard you do that in a while. I love it when we are in this pattern.

[Stovepipe]

42 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Yep do a little play by play, I haven't heard you do that in a while. I love it when we are in this pattern.

I can't rationalize a subscription this year due to a tight budget, otherwise I absolutely would.  I'm just here to react to others that hopefully post it!  (prepared to be disappointed as there will be ups and downs for sure as we reel this in... hopefully).

[John1122]

It's much warmer and less snowy on wave one. Still cold but with some snow but 1-2 vs 3-6 and 10-15 Monday insead of -5 to 5 above. Basically fell in line with the rest of the 0z suite in that regard. Waiting to see how it affects what was the much bigger wave two that crushed most of the forum area. 

Keep in mind big storms and major cold will cause wild swings. 

[John1122]

The NAO is off the charts negative after that system and it's west based. That should mean good things to come as long as the Pac isn't a disaster. 

[John1122]

The second system is now basically nothing on the Euro.  

From here.

 

To here. 

[John1122]

Looks like it's trying to cook something up towards the end but it's holding energy back in Texas. Not surprising that it's holding back. 

[John1122]

Weaker and suppressed.  Not a bad look at all but I hate that it gets pushed back in time. Potential is still there but it just didn't work out that run. 

[John1122]

All in all the GFS and GFS Para are still snowy forum wide.  The Euro was suppressed as is the Canadian. All are generally cold enough for winter precip.  We will probably see more big hits and misses over the next few days. 

[weathertree4u]

NWS Nashville typically pretty conservative is mentioning next week in discussions. I lost track of the winter events depicted on morning run of GFS for forum

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight EPS members:

 

 

 

[Coach B]

OHX am Disco on next week:

"However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an

developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as
first half of next work week progresses from a surface low
expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow
will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of
passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches
also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid
20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then
lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of
this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good
amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this
could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift
snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast
including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming
model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation,
but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs
advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from
initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set
the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state
region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and
is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this
consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy
snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay
a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a
winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation
event."

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's an interesting tidbit:

 

WPC's 500 mb forecast for days 3 - 7, overlaid with an Ensemble mean (not sure if that is a major global blend mean, or what) and ensemble spread. The green lines are the WPCs forecast and the black are from the ENS Mean. The orange - red fill are the area of greatest spread. Never really looked at it much (mea culpa), but it is interesting to see how WPC uses the ensemble mean. I'm not saying this is better or worse than what we normally look at, but I find it interesting to see where the forecasters sharpen things, as opposed to the ENS mean, smoothing them out, especially the ridge over the Canadian Rockies being stronger. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This all could be for nothing though...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The true prognosticator of our weather fortunes cometh today...

 

Time to do yo thang @BNAwx

[PowellVolz]

Not surprised the Euro lost it. Seems to happen a lot around 5 days out.

[tnweathernut]

38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Not surprised the Euro lost. Seems to happen a lot around 5 days out.

Euro ensembles still on board, showing the pattern can produce.  This isn't a situation where the OP shows 20" and the ensembles are showing NADA.   I'm still in, until i'm out.  lol

[Bigbald]

I let myself get a little too enamored with the 12z euro yesterday.  Not that I thought it would happen verbatim but I miss having a big storm, here is the cold water snippet from MRX:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Keep brining down 1040+ highs and one would think that we eventually hook up with a system that has frozen precip.  The GFS seems too fast this weekend which is causing it to miss the phase, but that is an overall trend so far at 12z with the ICON doing the same.  Still, looks like plenty of opportunities past that.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS just looks way too suppressed to me.

[Carvers Gap]

Want to see some bitterly cold air settling into the Midwest and eastern Plains...12z UKMET has you covered.  Has -32F stuff at 144 in Iowa.

[Jeff H]

First time poster long time lurker. I will be following this forum. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Jeff H said:

First time poster long time lurker. I will be following this forum. 

Awesome!  Glad to have you aboard!!!

[Carvers Gap]

As I look at the 12z suite roll in, becoming apparent that modeling is MUCH colder so far.  The air mass being modeled is just ridiculously cold for Sunday into next week.  What is even crazier is that the MJO is stuck in 6/7.  Makes me think the SER will not be nearly as suppressed as the 12z suite has and that the cold is going to fight it.  Extreme cold battling a SER is pretty much how I would draw up a wild winter weather pattern.  Just a hunch about the SER being a little more active...but for now suppression is the trend.  I am just not buying it right now.  Also, important to remember that the NAO is going place confluence over us and the MA.  The NAO will tend to slow things down as well.  I am not seeing the big storms from yesterday, but am no less interested in the pattern(not in the least).  Cold air masses(even if brief) have been money all winter as the southern jet has rarely been quiet.

[Carvers Gap]

Cold looks overdone on some modeling.  We will see, but off the top of my head, modeling which has been that aggressive this winter has usually verified north.  Also, feb1-5 was supposed to be warm!?  Welp, first two days say otherwise.  If you all remember, Jan 25-30 was supposed to be super cold and then flipped on us at the last minute.  I now wonder if that pattern was simply delayed to the Feb5 amplification.  

[Carvers Gap]

Going to sit down and watch the 12z Euro roll today.  Our schools up here are out today as the NNW flow event slightly overperformed in Kingsport.  I bet we have had 2-3" but it keeps melting and then getting reloaded with the next set of snow showers.   

[Shocker0]

21 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Times like this i wish it was like Deal or No Deal where you smash the button to lock in the payout

"Shocker, you turned down Mother Nature's generous offer of 8" of snow to risk it all and now you're down to your final case. Jennifer, please open the briefcase to see how much snow he has won"

[Matthew70]

The MJO should be heading into 8 I would think.  I also read where phase 7 is colder in February compared to earlier winter months.  I don’t know much about MJO.

[snowmaker]

According to people that no more about it than me when the MJO is in 7 in February the phase is colder.