February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Daniel Boone]

Be nice to get one of the cutoff Low storms, ala, April 1987.

[CG2]

Only +1.5F  at TRI, even with two really warm days.   7 days AN and 5 BN so far.  Hadn't checked this morning, but a fairly strong trough amplification does appear on track now for the second half of the month for the East.  Monster PNA ridge modeled to go up just after mid-month.  By the end of this upcoming week, guessing that we are going to see some quite chilly weather return as I would suspect multiple cold fronts will make this far south.  Again, I suspect what we have just seen is simply a reloading of the pattern which we have had since early December.   Before the last week of April, I would not be surprised to see some flakes IMBY given the current pattern modeled.  And as a final note, the MJO looks like it will indeed verify in at least phase one of the MJO.  Modeling is now beginning to pivot to that colder look for the East.  The Rockies, as Powell noted, may be digging out of a snow storm one week and basking in very warm weather about ten days later.  

And yes, the Rockies get some great snows in March.  Lander, WY, gets a good chunk of its snowfall in what would be our spring(later winter for them).   Two years ago we were listening to the Purdue/TN game in the NCAA tournament as we raced westward across Wyoming ahead of a big storm coming up the front range.  Snowed for the entire four hour drive.  Had to pull over once, not because of the storm, but because TN came back and I didn't want to wreck!   This storm may be a record break, even though climatology supports this during this time of the year.  Some areas in WY have had an incredibly dry winter.  Good to see this heavy snow for those areas.  

[Carvers Gap]

What the EPS is advertising would be a chance at a significant late-season outbreak of cold straight off the pole d10-15.  The is a crazy big PNA ridge - pretty much into the Arctic.

[Carvers Gap]

Some crazy snowfall pics from the record setting Rockies snowstorm this past weekend.  If you get a chance, go on FB and look at Wyoming through the Lens.  Crazy stuff.  (May be two sites with the same name...)

[PowellVolz]

What the EPS is advertising would be a chance at a significant late-season outbreak of cold straight off the pole d10-15.  The is a crazy big PNA ridge - pretty much into the Arctic.

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[Windspeed]

[jaxjagman]

On 3/17/2021 at 8:15 AM, Windspeed said:

 

Can't wait,it already seems to be much better

 

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-announce-major-upgrades-to-us-weather-model-march-22

[Wurbus]

GFS is playing an April Fools joke

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro is in on it, lol:

 

 

 

 

I wonder if this is the reality of the long anticipated storm I posted in banter a couple of weeks ago:

yeah it's few days late, but these things often get pushed back.

Besides, I'm ready for a couple weeks off of severe wx now. 

[John1122]

It's rare for me to escape March and April without snow in the air at least. Thus far that has been the case. Hopefully this gives us a late season treat.

[Carvers Gap]

Snow showers on April Fool's Day for NE TN, SW VA, and the higher elevations?  

[Carvers Gap]

Bout time to start a new thread as Feb/March has pretty much run its course!