February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[PowellVolz]

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[Nash_LSU]

If that TWC outlook is as good as their February outlook, then assume the opposite that's shown.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here comes bowling ball #1:

 

 

Will it be a gutter ball or a strike?

One of the big problems we had with the past systems during the arctic outbreak, is that the energy has never truly taken the low road. That we were even getting any frozen east of BNA was a testament to how cold the air was at the surface, while the 850 lows were running into the midwest. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here comes bowling ball #1:

 

 

Will it be a gutter ball or a strike?

One of the big problems we had with the past systems during the arctic outbreak, is that the energy has never truly taken the low road. That we were even getting any frozen east of BNA was a testament to how cold the air was at the surface, while the 850 lows were running into the midwest. 

Just bring that ball about 150 to 200 miles north.

[Carvers Gap]

My hoop house is up and ready.   That guaranteed what the MJO shows this AM which is a potentially high amplitude rotation through phase 1.  Beginning to see some modeling "feel" the MJO now as SLP tracks are now south of our area.  Have a feeling that much colder air will insert itself into the pattern.  I really don't disagree with the March looks that are AN.  But embedded in that pattern may be a cold and stormy 7-10 day time frame...been that way almost all winter.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Just bring that ball about 150 to 200 miles north.

12z was flirting with something decent.  

[Daniel Boone]

I, like Carvers don't disagree so much of our area averaging AN. My reasoning being due to the Nina forcing in the Pac mainly. However, changing wavelengths, possible continued HLB along with possible MJO effects considerably decreases the odds and magnitude of the AN prospects. 

      The problem I have is NCEP's outlook in basically overamping, if you will, LaNina pattern reflection for March. They have 90 to 95 % of the U.S. forecasted AN.

[Carvers Gap]

You can see the 18z GFS-para with a very good pass of a slp around the 6th.  1040 hp sitting just north of the GL.  If that pulls north(and likely will as spring bowling balls are notorious for shifting north even at the last minute), that is not a terrible look.  We really want stuff in Cuba at this time of year, and let it work back northward.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro with some snow on the Plateau, especially the Smokies, and some light stuff in NE TN/SW VA with the system on the 3rd.  Nothing huge...but not warm.

[CG2]

The 18z RGEM with the quad-low on March 3rd.

[Mr. Kevin]

I think there is too much troughing out west to get anything significant in terms of colder weather lasting more than a day or two. I think mid march could be colder with mjo progression 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

John, you just got quasi NAM'd, what are you gonna do with more snow?

 

MRX is rather encouraged, for precip at least, with a variety  no not even a variety, a veritable smorgasbord of exciting forcing mechanisms

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, a compact short-wave will move
across the Tennessee valley, Gulf Coast states, and southern
Appalachians. Jet structure is complex but northern stream jet over
the mid-Atlantic and southern stream jet with the upper trough will
produce upper divergence. The Ageostrophic Circulations with the
jets will enhance the dynamic forcing over the area. Models show
decent QG forcing which will help cool the column.

This system will produce widespread showers beginning in the evening
south, then lift northeast into much of the area overnight.
Temperature profile tricky with the NAM colder. The GEFS and
ensemble mean from the ECMWF suggest temperatures will be cold
enough for snow across the higher elevations. Snow accumulations of
a dusting (at or above 4kft) and 2 inches (at or above 5kft) are
anticipated. Locally heavier amounts over the peaks of the Smoky and
Roane Mountains. This lines up well with the WPC snow accumulations.

 

They didn't even mention the WAA, meager though it may be:

almost guarantees a NW trend with precip. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The 850 low isn't over Des Moines this time, I don't know what to think

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The MJO continues to advertise a cold shot of air mid-month or just after.  Not saying snow or snow storm.  I would think higher elevations are not done(maybe even folks along the KY/VA/TN/NC border.  Ensembles are beginning to pick up on an eastern trough around mid-month which fits the MJO nicely.   If this fits the pattern of cold shots that make it into the Lower 48, it may be abnormally cold. We will see.  Enjoy this great weather!

[jaxjagman]

Few more days before the upgrade to V16,unless something changes

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn_21-20_gfsv16.0_aaa_update.pdf

 

 

[Ji]

Does it snow in Knoxville. Wife may want to move their smh

[PowellVolz]

Does it snow in Knoxville. Wife may want to move their smh

It honestly depends on what part of Knoxville you are asking about. Inside the city limits don’t usually get much but out in the county can sometimes be a totally different story. I’m north of Knoxville about 30 minutes and I picked up around 8-10” this past season. Most of it came on Christmas Eve. Knoxville had around 3” total. My elevation is about 400 to 500 feet higher and that makes a huge difference considering the majority of our snows have boarder line boundary temps. North and East Knox Co usually do much better than south and west Knox Co.


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[Ji]

It honestly depends on what part of Knoxville you are asking about. Inside the city limits don’t usually get much but out in the county can sometimes be a totally different story. I’m north of Knoxville about 30 minutes and I picked up around 8-10” this past season. Most of it came on Christmas Eve. Knoxville had around 3” total. My elevation is about 400 to 500 feet higher and that makes a huge difference considering the majority of our snows have boarder line boundary temps. North and East Knox Co usually do much better than south and west Knox Co.


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Thanks. Very helpful. How did you do in February? More ice? Does the area get the benefit of Cad?

[John1122]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

Thanks. Very helpful. How did you do in February? More ice? Does the area get the benefit of Cad?

CAD is virtually nonexistent in the Eastern Tennessee Valley. There may very occasionally be a small amount of cold backing up against the Plateau and not scouring out that can lead to precip staying frozen. The entire Tennessee valley is very prone to the warm nose of systems. Especially the further south/west you go. On the east side of the state it really powers up the valley into Knoxville between the Plateau and Mountains.

Historically Knoxville got plenty of pure snow events but these days it's rare that some kind of mix/warm nose isn't involved. The guys who live there could tell you more but they've probably not had 10 pure snow events with no warm nose, of more than 3 inches in the last 10-15 years in all but the far north/northeast ridges area of Knox county.  I worked there 5 days a week from the late 90s to 2005 or so and I don't remember seeing snow on the ground in West Knoxville in those 7 years. Granted, those were probably some of the worst winters in East Tennessee history for that area. 

If you're willing to move maybe 40 miles from Knoxville to the West, East or North you'll basically double or triple your average snowfall because you can find places to live above 1500 feet in elevation, which that extra 400-500 feet makes a big difference in many events. If you can get above 2000 feet you'd see 4-5 times the snowfall of Knoxville in an average year that only would increase every extra 1000 feet up you go.

[Carvers Gap]

If I was moving to the area and location was not an issue....western NC on a northwest facing slope @Ji.

 

As for everyone else.  The 12z CMC spitting out single digits late in its run.  Whew.  Modeling starting to sniff out a trough amplification during the d10-15.  Location TBD but likely east of the Rockies.

[PowellVolz]

If I was moving to the area and location was not an issue....western NC on a northwest facing slope [mention=514]Ji[/mention].
 
As for everyone else.  The 12z CMC spitting out single digits late in its run.  Whew.  Modeling starting to sniff out a trough amplification during the d10-15.  Location TBD but likely east of the Rockies.

I would live up on Roan Mt about 4k feet.


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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I would live up on Roan Mt about 4k feet.


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In a heartbeat.   There is a beautiful valley just below that with an apple orchard.  Lots of great homes there.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I would live up on Roan Mt about 4k feet.


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That last saddle below Carvers is the place to be.  

[Coach B]

17 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I would live up on Roan Mt about 4k feet.


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Tom Niziol, a retired winter weather expert from the Weather Channel and the NWS, is a great Twitter follow. He has a house at Roan Mountain and consistently posts great weather updates from there as well as winter themed things from around the nation. He is one of my favorite follows!

[PowellVolz]

Tom Niziol, a retired winter weather expert from the Weather Channel and the NWS, is a great Twitter follow. He has a house at Roan Mountain and consistently posts great weather updates from there as well as winter themed things from around the nation. He is one of my favorite follows!

Yes I follow him. Would love to live where he does or have a “retirement” cabin up there. Could also have a place near Beach MTn.


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[Carvers Gap]

Going to be interesting to see this storm in the front range of the Rockies this weekend.  Could be a record breaker.

[PowellVolz]

Going to be interesting to see this storm in the front range of the Rockies this weekend.  Could be a record breaker.

2 feet in Denver is insane and it will probably be 70° by the end of the week, because it’s Denver.

 

 

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[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

2 feet in Denver is insane and it will probably be 70° by the end of the week, because it’s Denver.

 

 

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Crazy!!!!


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MST SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 24
  inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near
  Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver,
  Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley.

* WHEN...From 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Finish preparation for this storm by Friday.
  Conditions will likely deteriorate quickly Saturday as the storm
  arrives.

[PowellVolz]

Crazy!!!!...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MST SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDTMONDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 24 inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.* WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley.* WHEN...From 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Finish preparation for this storm by Friday. Conditions will likely deteriorate quickly Saturday as the storm arrives.

My goodness


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[John1122]

Usually see those in the Rockies in April.  Spring was early this year but not shocking after 3 winter months that all were actually wintry at times.