February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Calderon]

Oof, going from a wintry threat to what very well could be widespread flooding problems. Welcome to the great transition period.

[PowellVolz]

Yes!  Have a great time.  Sunshine, is that even a thing anymore?  LOL  

No kidding!!!! I played golf yesterday and it was pretty chilly, my face and lips got dried out from the sun and low humidity. I’m not complaining though.


.

[PowellVolz]

Oof, going from a wintry threat to what very well could be widespread flooding problems. Welcome to the great transition period.

Hopefully it’s nowhere near the last 2 years.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The National Blend of Models this AM says start warming up those floaties

All OP runs overnight look similar. 

 

 

 

[Kentucky]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The National Blend of Models this AM says start warming up those floaties

All OP runs overnight look similar. 

 

 

 

Took out a round bale of hay to the field yesterday, was so dang muddy. Was thinking how difficult it must be for power restoration crews. And that was before the rain...

[PowellVolz]

The National Blend of Models this AM says start warming up those floaties

All OP runs overnight look similar. 
 

 
 

I was literally driving by when that dude went down that creek in N Knoxville right there at Fulton HS.


.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies 500 look looks like a very slow progression into spring.  NAO refires and sends additional shots of cold into the East - at least two in March.  Looks like a normal-ish spring time pattern.  Keep in mind the 2m temps on the Weeklies are always warm.  Have to actually look at the 500 pattern and temps at 850.  Think we get a warm-up and more of the pattern from February.  Looks very much like a pattern reload.

 

[CG2]

I know what the models look like, but I also know the MJO is modeled to go into cold phases.  Something is going to have to give....Either we see quite cold temps (and LR modeling is shaky)or the MJO forecast is wrong.   Phase 8 is not overly cold in March, but does favor a trough over the EC.  Phases 1-2 are cold.  With the EMON forecasting the MJO to head into a cold background state...going to be tough for an extended warm-up.  This basically is saying we turn cold after 3-4 days into March.  We will see.   Beware of ridges in the LR over the East.  

[dwagner88]

The Euro and the GFS are not at all in the same camp this weekend. The Euro says bust out the life rafts with 6-8" widespread over my corner of the state. The GFS has less than 1" qpf with the heavier totals along I-40. Either way, I'm expecting to see a hydro outlook from MRX any time now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro seems to be wanting to go for a western ridge out in fantasy land, and that would align with Carver's thoughts.

 

Good news dwagner, latest Euro aims the firehose along I 40:

 

aligns with the WPC's thinking:

 

That western ridge would def. be a welcome break from what seems like will be a rather wet week. 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

February has pretty much become Floodurary the last few years. This one may be no exception albeit a bit late if, it floods b4 Month's end.  

     Also, i believe winter weather is pretty much over if we don't get a western ridge. Blocking without that ridge this late in winter is most likely not enough to get it done at our latitude. However, it does spell WET.

    So, hopefully Carvers is right and we can get all to coincide. If so, there would exist the possibility of an old fashioned March Big Dog.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS at 270 is textbook phase 8 for March.  Trough tucked east of the Apps with ridging out West.  Makes me think that ensemble may correct more.  

[Carvers Gap]

Rally cap...long shot stuff.   I didn't feel like the 0z Euro was exactly benign centered on March 3.  Also, the 12z para-GFS has a low which takes the low road, but with a less than optimal thermal profile around the same time frame.  Cold is not exactly in play, but this is a ways out and things could change(for the better or worse).

[PowellVolz]

Rally cap...long shot stuff.   I didn't feel like the 0z Euro was exactly benign centered on March 3.  Also, the 12z para-GFS has a low which takes the low road, but with a less than optimal thermal profile around the same time frame.  Cold is not exactly in play, but this is a ways out and things could change(for the better or worse).

Got to think SER shows up sooner than later and we start seeing cutters with thunderstorms.


.

[Daniel Boone]

This late in the game, need that ridge in the west.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Got to think SER shows up sooner than later and we start seeing cutters with thunderstorms.


.

Short term, yes.  Been saying the last week of Feb through March 3rd was going to be warm.  If the MJO rolls to 1-3, the SER will be squashed at some point after that time frame.  Seeing that scenario on some LR modeling operationals. Nothing a given at this point.  Real question is does the MJO loop back to 7 or turn to 1-2.  SER for the next week for sure.  Going to be a swampy mess.  I am of the opinion this is the same reset pattern that we have seen already twice this winter.  I could be wrong...won’t be the first and certainly won’t be the last.  

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely seeing bowling ball season commencing.  Just need to get one below us and time it with a trough.  

[Carvers Gap]

Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up!  @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?

[Stovepipe]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up!  @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?

Nice!  It's a downscaling year for me.  I've got a bunch of other things going on so I'm just going to buy a few plants.

[PowellVolz]

Daffodils are showing up now. Fruit trees are probably not far behind assuming we don’t get a harsh cold snap.


.

[blue sky vol]

Hiya, all.

Just wanted to say hello and introduce myself. A fellow fan of the UT Vols suggested this site to me so that I could learn a little something about meteorological matters, and I'm hoping to do that.

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, blue sky vol said:

Hiya, all.

Just wanted to say hello and introduce myself. A fellow fan of the UT Vols suggested this site to me so that I could learn a little something about meteorological matters, and I'm hoping to do that.

Welcome

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Daffodils are showing up now. Fruit trees are probably not far behind assuming we don’t get a harsh cold snap.


.

Fortunately stuff around TRI is still well behind the last 2-3 years.  Weeklies still hinting that some troughing is going to show up in the East around mid-March.  Looks like the March 3 window will be a an amplifying trough into the OH Valley and deepens as it swings east which means just backside cold.   The EMON MJO (connected to the Euro Weeklies which as just released this evening) is adamant that we rotate into very cold phases around the 15th.  That would be jarring given the warm temps we are experiencing right now.  IF that pattern is correct, I would not rule out a snowfall which is well out of normal climo for us in the valley.  Man, I kind of like the weather today...MJO is just nasty around mid-March in terms of prolonged cool weather.   

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the MJO...that is not warm for weeks 3.  We will see if this verifies as US modeling is not really in support of that look right now.  If the Euro verifies, we are currently in a reloading of the pattern very similar to what happened in January, and honestly, not sure many actually want to hear that cold might return.  LOL.  

[PowellVolz]

Hiya, all.
Just wanted to say hello and introduce myself. A fellow fan of the UT Vols suggested this site to me so that I could learn a little something about meteorological matters, and I'm hoping to do that.

Glad you jumped in with us.


.

[Carvers Gap]

US modeling has now moved decidedly towards the EURO model suites in regards to the MJO moving into phases which correlate to early spring cold.  Makes me think cold, maybe significant, might be lurking right past what operational models can reach with their 16 day range.  If real, we should begin to see LR modeling over the weekend produce some cold solutions periodically from run-to-run and then get more consistently so by mid-week next week.

[Daniel Boone]

I see some outlets have already jumped the gun and pulled the trigger on their March outlook. Above to much above Temps for everywhere except Pac NW...Lol.

[Carvers Gap]

LOL...I don't envy having to release a March forecast for a living.  

I think we could see AN temps for March, especially the first 10-12 days.  This kind of has the feel of the cold spell earlier this month where it go pushed back a few days, and a few more...then just finally arrived.  Guessing a 7-10 time frame of abnormally cold temps gets sandwiched in there at some point.  I don't see that on modeling at some point, but the MJO in phase 1 would flip modeling in a hurry without a lot of warning.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC ensemble mean is flirting with a trough around the 13th.  So, that is the first model to maybe show some hint of a response to the MJO.  We will see if that occurs in reality, but worth watching in the LR>

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

I’ve had my 3 days of sun. I’m recharged for one more run until April, lol.