February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 hours ago, mempho said:

 

 

I need know such thing. I would lock this cold in and keep snow on the ground til May if I could.



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

 

So cold, like stone. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Also, someone is going to have to point out the doggo to me from the CMC's map. 

[Dsty2001]

48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Also, someone is going to have to point out the doggo to me from the CMC's map. 

Look in AL, GA & LA

[Jed33]

I put it in the obs. thread, but it’s absolutely ripping fatties here in Mtown this AM! A nice closing shot to this storm I guess! Looks like a healthy band is setting up!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

37 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Look in AL, GA & LA

Now I see it:

[Kentucky]

Overachiever here yesterday, roads are solid ice this morning

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Kentucky said:

Overachiever here yesterday, roads are solid ice this morning

It is crazy.  We are in a pattern where we have a threat about every 7-10 days.  I really like the March 3rd -15th timeframe.  MJO is less hostile(unless it dives into 6).   The EMON and Euro really like the MJO heading into background cooler/colder phases.  US modeling is not there yet.  Just get us some cold into this active weather pattern, and let's see what it can cook up!  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Jed33 said:

I put it in the obs. thread, but it’s absolutely ripping fatties here in Mtown this AM! A nice closing shot to this storm I guess! Looks like a healthy band is setting up!

Had yet another day running in the snow.  I have never seen so many days of snow with so few inches of it!   LOL.  

[Math/Met]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Had yet another day running in the snow.  I have never seen so many days of snow with so few inches of it!   LOL.  

What is your seasonal total so far? Just wondering. 

[John1122]

18z GFS just honked loud that run. Definitely a window to keep an eye on next week. 

[John1122]

18z GFS

[Bigbald]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

18z GFS

In normal starving times I'd be glued to this storm, almost all the 12z suites had it in some form or fashion, some more a bit north.  I believe we must be collectively burned out ha

[Stovepipe]

2 hours ago, Bigbald said:

In normal starving times I'd be glued to this storm, almost all the 12z suites had it in some form or fashion, some more a bit north.  I believe we must be collectively burned out ha

I'm burned out from seeing clown maps, then checking the meteograms and seeing a bottoming out of 34-35 degrees and knowing that will be a fat flaked dusting at best for here.  I've really become conditioned to hate the word "marginal".  Just the sound of it makes me nauseous.  Marginal.  Blah

[John1122]

19 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm burned out from seeing clown maps, then checking the meteograms and seeing a bottoming out of 34-35 degrees and knowing that will be a fat flaked dusting at best for here.  I've really become conditioned to hate the word "marginal".  Just the sound of it makes me nauseous.  Marginal.  Blah

Granted, it's the GFS at range but the column is great on it for the event on that 18z run. No sign of a warm nose anywhere. Just sub-freezing all the way down to just above the surface and 33 at the surface with plaster dumping.

[John1122]

Great Euro run. It's been further north/slower which is its bias. The GFS is further east/faster, also its bias. The Euro ticked south and colder. There's also some heavy sleet on the Euro too. 

[jaxjagman]

Looks to warm unless you are elevated

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z FEB20
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -5.3    -5.7     128       0    33005                           
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -8.1    -6.3     127       0    03003                           
SAT 12Z 20-FEB -10.3    -5.0     128       0    13004           0.00            
SAT 18Z 20-FEB   2.6    -4.4     129     752    21001           0.00            
SUN 00Z 21-FEB  -0.8    -2.3     130    2387    05002           0.00            
SUN 06Z 21-FEB  -5.6    -0.6     131    4058    15006           0.00            
SUN 12Z 21-FEB  -4.3     0.1     131    4436    16006           0.00            
SUN 18Z 21-FEB  10.0     0.4     132    4647    18008           0.00            
MON 00Z 22-FEB   5.1     0.9     133    4707    18007           0.00            
MON 06Z 22-FEB   7.9     2.9     133    6512    18013           0.00            
MON 12Z 22-FEB   4.8     1.1     132    5224    24007           0.27            
MON 18Z 22-FEB   8.7     0.7     131    4778    29007           0.02            
TUE 00Z 23-FEB   3.1    -0.1     132    4049    28004           0.00            
TUE 06Z 23-FEB   0.6     2.5     132    6433    23006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 23-FEB   0.8     4.8     133    7502    23006           0.00            
TUE 18Z 23-FEB  13.2     6.0     134    9433    25004           0.00            
WED 00Z 24-FEB   7.9     6.2     135   10031    21005           0.00            
WED 06Z 24-FEB   4.4     6.6     134    9931    20007           0.00            
WED 12Z 24-FEB   2.3     5.3     134   10326    19007           0.00            
WED 18Z 24-FEB  16.0     6.2     135    9596    21008           0.00            
THU 00Z 25-FEB  10.6     6.1     136    8827    19006           0.00            
THU 06Z 25-FEB   8.3     4.5     134    7069    29003           0.00            
THU 12Z 25-FEB   5.3     2.7     132    6221    35007           0.01            
THU 18Z 25-FEB  11.4     2.5     133    6300    01006           0.00            
FRI 00Z 26-FEB   6.9     0.0     132    5103    01006           0.00            
FRI 06Z 26-FEB   4.4     1.1     131    4848    04010           0.01            
FRI 12Z 26-FEB   0.7     0.2     130    2997    06009           0.49            
FRI 18Z 26-FEB   3.1     1.6     131    5693    05009           0.15            
SAT 00Z 27-FEB   2.9     3.4     132    8998    05004           0.01            
SAT 06Z 27-FEB   4.2     2.7     133   11602    16004           0.00            
SAT 12Z 27-FEB   5.5     2.1     133   10924    20006           0.03            
SAT 18Z 27-FEB  10.2     4.0     133    8749    23007           0.03            
SUN 00Z 28-FEB   8.0     3.1     133    6680    26005           0.00            
SUN 06Z 28-FEB   4.8     1.5     133    7566    29003           0.00            
SUN 12Z 28-FEB   0.4     1.5     132    7215    09004           0.00            
SUN 18Z 28-FEB  14.1     4.6     134    8342    10005           0.00            
MON 00Z 01-MAR   9.9     5.4     135    8915    08004           0.00            
MON 06Z 01-MAR  10.7     9.5     135    8657    16009           0.00            
MON 12Z 01-MAR   9.8     8.8     136    9381    16007           0.32            
MON 18Z 01-MAR  16.9    11.5     136    9833    21008           0.08            
TUE 00Z 02-MAR  15.2     9.7     137    9378    16006           0.02            

[Holston_River_Rambler]

9 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm burned out from seeing clown maps, then checking the meteograms and seeing a bottoming out of 34-35 degrees and knowing that will be a fat flaked dusting at best for here.  I've really become conditioned to hate the word "marginal".  Just the sound of it makes me nauseous.  Marginal.  Blah

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%.

 

 

I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! 

Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up:

 

I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

14 hours ago, Math/Met said:

What is your seasonal total so far? Just wondering. 

Off the top of my head(and I probably need to dig through the obs threads),  I think my seasonal total is between 7-8" of actual events more than 1".  I honestly have lost track of the nickel and dime stuff under 1".  Rough calculation from the airport is 10" or so.  That is probably pretty close for me.  The airport for DJF has recorded 19 days with a trace or more.  I have rarely scored so little while having so many days of recorded snow.  LOL.  But I am not complaining....Christmas Eve Storm along with the west/middle forum area event(and many other smaller events)...I have really enjoyed this winter.  The Christmas Eve tracking will be one I will remember for a long time.  Our mountains have had snow most of the winter which is kind of cool.  @Math/Met, what is your total now?  I think you might be running higher than me.

[Carvers Gap]

My advice for folks is to pick a window which looks good, see if it has model support, look at the MJO for support, look for blocking, and see if modeling works back to your idea.  MJO on US models this AM shows it migrating towards and into cold, very low amplitude background phases.  I think we have a shot at snow right before the big warm-up, and then right as we get colder again as we should in early March if the MJO is only halfway right.  Ensembles this morning don't look great for early March, but I am riding with the MJO right now and NAO block.  We have seen this pattern all winter where models take some time to find the cold shot.  Guess is that we see the NAO form on the east side of the block, retrograde back west in very early March, cold builds into Alaska, dumps down the front range, and then pours eastward for one last shot.  It is not a certainty, but looks like a strong possibility.   If the MJO cooperates, that could be a problem for the Eastern half of the country.  Time will tell.  

[fountainguy97]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%.

 

 

I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! 

Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up:

 

I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method. 

 

 

I have the same feelings and my total is 20” on the year. It certainly doesn’t feel like an above average season.  I’ve had 3 events completely bust.  All 3 had models in agreement on decent snow 18hrs out then poof! 
 

the NW events really saved me this year because the standard storms haven’t panned out at all. 

[Silas Lang]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%.

 

 

I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! 

Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up:

 

I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method. 

 

 

I am with you and Stove on this one. If it keeps showing a storm, I am gonna expect a sloppy dusting until the ground shows otherwise. 

This year: 

 

[Daniel Boone]

Speaking of Totals guy's,  I've been fortunate I guess in that many of the marginal events worked in my favor.

   Officially,   28.4 inches at my location east of Jonesville, Va. 1732 ft. Ele.

    Something noteworthy ; This Total would be average in the 1950 to 1980 climate Record period. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

State o the state for future reference:

[John1122]

It's wild to me that Holston has had such rough luck this winter. If you go 10-15 miles or so NE to 1300 feet on the other side of Cross Mtn there's been 20 inches of snow.

I've had a 3+ inch snow event in November, December, January and February, plus ice and the Alaska level freezing fog for days on end,  All with only one day of temps below 10f.  Here on the Plateau systems that work for the East work for here and systems that work for the mid valley also tend to work for here to some extent. I'll always prefer a big high over the top in eastern Iowa and Northeastern Ohio and a slider/miller A but my next favorite is anafrontal Arctic events like the one for Christmas. Those are the kind that leads to 24-36 hours of snow in the air and super cold behind the system. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Honestly, I can't complain too much. I would say I have a total 7" on the year, better than the last two for sure. I think its maybe just the first time I've been posting on these boards where there have been so many chances that were truly near misses. 2 full days of sunshine now, is doing wonders for the snow batteries.  Pattern looks progressive for at least the next week, so should have a nice balance of rain vs sun days. I suspect the Euro has lost the late week system only to bring it back in some form or another once it is in Hi-res range. 

[nrgjeff]

Following up on John's post top of this page, the temp profiles do look good Friday Feb. 26 along/north of I-40 and possibly just south of that. Just need the system to actually happen and track that way. 12Z EC lost it, what a shock, but the GFS has it most runs. 00Z EC has it and both EPS runs have the system. 

First and most importantly, it's not an ice profile. 850 zero line is south of surface freezing. Partial thickness cross check verifies; 850-700 mb key line is at/below the 540 dm 1000-500 mb thickness. The 700 mb temps are ideal around -6C in the forecast area. Both the latter are excellent cross checks of each other, and just 850/surface Ts.

Even this late in the season a degree or two above freezing surface works with those nice 850-700 mb partial thicknesses. Usually that partial is just north of the full 1000-500, but this time they are on top of each other (bullish snow). It is a little early to use partial thickness and soundings; however, it's nice when the models at least starts them in a better place.

For once I have the time to talk about a system. Also I'm eyeing a NC ski day, to be honest. 

[jaxjagman]

Still to warm here to show those snows in Nashville,but I-40 N is colder

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hopefully the NAO can flex again in early March and knock this down a bit, buuuutttttttttt......starting to see hints of the "hydrological concerns" pattern trying  showing up on the ensemble means:

EPS mean:

GEFS mean:

 

 

Some of the OP runs look yucky too:

GFS:

 

para GFS:

 

Euro:

 

It's hit and miss with these sorts of OP runs though, so like I said above hopefully an NAO can flex enough to keep it south of the TN Valley watershed, (or it could just help create a funnel between it and the SE ridge as a boundary keeps getting hung up over our area ) [runs and hides and buys an ark or two]

[PowellVolz]

Beautiful day today. Going to do some lawn work at my moms.


.

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Beautiful day today. Going to do some lawn work at my moms.


.

Yes!  Have a great time.  Sunshine, is that even a thing anymore?  LOL