February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

So, go check out the MJO stuff this morning.  The EURO and GEFS are now both doing exactly what the EMON showed a few days ago....headfake to warm phases and then quickly heading towards colder phases.  I have noted many times that actual modeling in MJO areas looks like phases 1-2 will fire and that the MJO "should" loop to cooler phases just based on the modeling themselves and not the plots.  Will post the EMON with my other account.  

[CG2]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was actually looking at Ventrice's plot's earlier. The filtered 6 variable one looks nice:

 

 

[PowellVolz]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Is there a MJO users manual in the “weather links” thread?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

 

Here are a couple good sources, @PowellVolz

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually here's a good one for just the RMM diagrams:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CPC_MJOinformation.pdf

[PowellVolz]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

 

Here are a couple good sources, [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention]

 

 

Thanks buddy. Has the 12z HRRR been talked about on here? It’s an absolute paste job across ETn

 

 

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Thanks buddy. Has the 12z HRRR been talked about on here? It’s an absolute paste job across ETn

 

 

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I think MrWolf posted it in the 2/17 - 18 storm thread. 

[PowellVolz]

I think MrWolf posted it in the 2/17 - 18 storm thread. 

Ok. Didn’t realize we had one going. Thanks


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[PowellVolz]

My daytime high is supposed to be 30. It’s 22-23 degrees at noon. Don’t see it going up much if any.


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[Greyhound]

For the MJO......correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 8,1,2 the cold phases?

 

 

[Shocker0]

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

My daytime high is supposed to be 30. It’s 22-23 degrees at noon. Don’t see it going up much if any.


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Our high says 18, but it's 13 currently and feels like -1. It was also 13 when I woke up at 6:30 so it hasn't moved really. It's also been snowing unexpectedly all morning (very light and fluffy) so I'm hoping it will help us cool off a little more than expected to help the next system a bit.

[tnweathernut]

8 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

For the MJO......correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 8,1,2 the cold phases?

 

 

For Feb, March, and April phase 8 is generally correlated to average temps in the TN Valley, but colder than average as you head toward the east coast. Phases 1, 2, and even 3... are generally correlated to colder than normal in the TN Valley region for FMA.

[CG2]

6 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Is there a MJO users manual in the “weather links” thread?


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I like this.  Just center the phases on FMA and that is what I use for early March.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[CG2]

4 hours ago, Greyhound said:

For the MJO......correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 8,1,2 the cold phases?

 

 

During March, 8 is less cold.  1, 2, and 3 are cold.  I like that modeling is aimed in that direction.  Now, if someone likes an early spring...maybe not.  Makes me think we should see modeling turn quite cold during early March.  

edit: @tnweathernut got it!   

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Let's chase 70 for a few days! Will it prove as elusive as snowfall? 

 

 

 

Ensembles like our chances in the 8 - 12 day period. 

 

Euro Op for next Wed:

 

 

 

But there's a TC near the Philippines that could foul things up (probably after next week, if it does anything), depending on how it interacts with the flow over the NH:

 

You may also notice that there is a trough moving through East Asia, too:

Have to see what jax thinks about that. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Before anyone says anything, I'm not saying winter is over at this point. But I do think many of us could use a couple of weeks of warm weather to recharge our snow weenie batteries. 

 

And sunshine, don't forget the sun. Just don't look at the para GFS 15 day precip totals if you value your sanity, lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

Last two windows I am looking at before we break for spring:

1.  Outside shot around the 25th...Most model looks are cutters for the now.  The para-GFS is close to something good.  For now though, looks like a cutter.

2.  Time frame after March 3rd looks like an actual significant trough amplification or a big bowling ball.  Each trough amplification this year has pretty much produced somewhere in the forum.  This amplification might well be more than just a 1-2 day event,  but it also could just be a big storm showing up on LR 500 modeling.  

I "think" that last window mentioned is just a repeat of the current pattern which we have been a part of all winter.  Big amplification somewhere between the Rockies and Apps, followed by significant moderation in the pattern(a reload), and wash-rinse-repeat.  Think we cycle through that one more time.   Even though climatology works against many at this point, I would suggest that the amplification potential in early March doesn't rule anyone out.  Late winter and spring chasing is full of uncertainty, so beware.  But it does snow in March sometimes.  Looks like Cosgrove late month warm-up will verify.  He also says the pattern will recharge.  Normally, I would say we are about to break for spring.  In reality, I think we are about to experience another 7-10 warm-up before yet another cold shot into the Lower 48.  

[Carvers Gap]

It is worth noting, and I can tell this due to my running journal, that we are getting events about every 7-10 days in NE TN.   We have run in a lot of snow and slop this winter - more days than I have seen in some time.   We have also run in A LOT of mud.  

[Carvers Gap]

We haven't had a load of snow at TRI this winter, but I decided to see how many days in the snow we have run.   Double checked it with records at TR...looks like TRI has received 17 days of a trace or more.  Talk about nickel and diming.   It doesn't amount to a lot as there are a ton of dustings.  We do a lot of running above 2,000', and that has been out of commission due to mud and snow during the past couple of weeks.  Again, I "think" one last window awaits just after March 3rd.  One word of caution, some of these warm-ups have actually had chances during those time frames.  Wavelengths during spring can cause abrupt swings as you all know.

[Wurbus]

The elusive "It's a week away" storm. Para has it as well, but it is more north and hammers mid-northern KY. CMC is a completely different solution and has the storm in the Midwest.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I put it in banter because I just couldn't face it at this point, lol. 

 

I'm hugging the CMC:

[PowellVolz]

I put it in banter because I just couldn't face it at this point, lol. 
 
I'm hugging the CMC:

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[Carvers Gap]

So the 12z GFS and the Euro at 192 are trying to snow during the warm-up.  That is a change.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like another system for middle and west just glancing through the 192 panels.   GFS is all E TN, but it really struggled with this current system.

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I put it in banter because I just couldn't face it at this point, lol. 

 

I'm hugging the CMC:

Look at that dog face in that image ! Or is that some chick from the 70's with her mouth open. Lol

[Dsty2001]

Holy smokes I see a doggo

[mempho]

Before anyone says anything, I'm not saying winter is over at this point. But I do think many of us could use a couple of weeks of warm weather to recharge our snow weenie batteries. 
 

I need know such thing. I would lock this cold in and keep snow on the ground til May if I could.



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[Wintersnow888]

2 hours ago, mempho said:

 

 

I need know such thing. I would lock this cold in and keep snow on the ground til May if I could.



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Agreed!!! So often it melts the next day in the South, would like it to stay and multiply

[John1122]

Euro is still all in for next week.