February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Evolution at H5;

 

Several pieces of energy flying around, so time for more positive or negative changes. 

[CG2]

This is one of these systems where a big slug of precip busts out in front of the main low which is why the WAA is more significant.  This is a fairly strong little system.

[CG2]

Now for west and middle folks...there is more after this.  Basically a low spins up the Piedmont.  Verbatim, I am not sure NE TN would even change over.  This is how these overrunning systems normally operate.  One system pushes the boundary just a step further.  Does it happen?  NO IDEA!!!!  LOL.  Just sharing maps...

 

[PowellVolz]

Evolution at H5;

 
Several pieces of energy flying around, so time for more positive or negative changes. 

This one digs a couple hundred miles further east which helps us a lot.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

This one digs a couple hundred miles further east which helps us a lot.

I'm really interested to see how the N stream shortwaves interact with this system. That TPV has blocked that kind of interaction off for our current system. 

[PowellVolz]

I'm really interested to see how the N stream shortwaves interact with this system. That TPV has blocked that kind of interaction off for our current system. 

I think it was 2018(?) we saw a similar set up with a front end thump to sleet to rain and back to snow but the valley north of 40 never really ever changed over because of CAD up against the upper Cumberland into eastern Kentucky mountains. I ended up with 8-10” where Ober Gatlinburg was mostly rain with temps in the mid 40’s.


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[Kentucky]

Happy about the busted ice forecast here, that's 2 back to back bust by JKL, need more kymesonet sites here.

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

This one digs a couple hundred miles further east which helps us a lot.


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Yep.  And the comparison loop(just too big to load...Holston???) of the surface pressure locations is much less warm nose and has a tendency to slide and then turn up the coast in the coastal plain.  Really jumps on that first batch of precip and gets it out in front of the low.  

[Stovepipe]

26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pivotal's version of events:

 

The Euro is playing with my emotions.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Kentucky said:

Happy about the busted ice forecast here, that's 2 back to back bust by JKL, need more kymesonet sites here.

What is that Kentucky?  Also, did the thermals bust or did it just speed up?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

The Euro is playing with my emotions.

I thought the same thing.  Thing is, the 12a Euro looks like the 12z GFS which looks like the 12z CMC which looks a lot like the 12z RGEM.  The whole suite is a giant set-up!!!!   LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro:                                                                                                                                         0z Euro

 

 

@Carvers Gap

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro:                                                                                                                                         0z Euro

 

 

@Carvers Gap

Thanks.  That is a really good look.  Man...don't know whether to trust this suite of models or not, but that is three straight model suite(0z, 6z, and 12z) which have trended towards that solution.  My guess is that it would trend back NW at some point.  That said, if it trends one more time...money.  Two more times...Atlanta.

[tnweathernut]

Just once, I'd like to see a clean surface and 850 low pass.  Seems almost impossible to not send energy into east TN that wrecks the thermals.  I appreciate @Carvers Gap for trying to will a winter threat to our area over the last couple of days.  lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think there's more wiggle room with this one. No clue how it turns out, but prefer to have the unknowns of those two N Stream vorts rushing in than the giant TPV gyre pulling everything N and W. 

[Kentucky]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is that Kentucky?  Also, did the thermals bust or did it just speed up?

precip went NW,  29 now. We have ice but nothing like forcasted just yesterday. Ice have moved all the way into central kentucky. I don't even know if mesonet sites would help in this situation. But it sure isn't over yet....

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think there's more wiggle room with this one. No clue how it turns out, but prefer to have the unknowns of those two N Stream vorts rushing in than the giant TPV gyre pulling everything N and W. 

It never made sense to me seeing modeling send a strong system through middle Tennessee only to have the boundary come west for a system just a couple of days later.  That seems to have been an error.  Biggest question is how close to reality is it now?  More changes incoming, IMO.  A front end thump is possible for many in east Tennessee (outside Chattanooga of course).  I didn't think that was possible just a day or two ago.

[Shocker0]

Guessing game: Which system was only a WWA and which was a WSW here 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS through hr 90:

 

[Sweetpea Farms]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

EPS through hr 90:

I like all those maps, speaking selfishly. Thanks.

[Kentucky]

Don't see this everyday, 43 on black mountain.  https://www.kymesonet.org/

[Shocker0]

10 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

Don't see this everyday, 43 on black mountain.  https://www.kymesonet.org/

It's opposite day. The warmest part of the state is the highest peak.

[John1122]

33 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

precip went NW,  29 now. We have ice but nothing like forcasted just yesterday. Ice have moved all the way into central kentucky. I don't even know if mesonet sites would help in this situation. But it sure isn't over yet....

The next wave will hit you pretty hard I suspect. Hopefully you get sleet. I'm losing trees again because of damn freezing mist and fog. I never thought I'd see freezing fog get this thick.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For anyone who wants to see/ discuss, here is the EPS LPs and HPs for the next system:

 

ands the Means

 

12z EPS MSLPs:                                                                                                                                       0z MSLPs

     

[John1122]

I'm sub 32 from 850 to 925 to surface during the height of the front end thump per the Euro...what could possibly go wrong?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm sub 32 from 850 to 925 to surface during the height of the front end thump per the Euro...what could possibly go wrong?

And I $*&^ you not, when I click on the pink (presumably heavy snow area) for a sounding:

 

This is what I get, lol :

 

 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And I $*&^ you not, when I click on the pink (presumably heavy snow area) for a sounding:

 

This is what I get, lol :

 

 

It doesn't shock me. I will note that in my experience the model depicted ptype comes to pass more often than the sounding ptype. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I just noticed in my MSLP gif brought Dandridge Dollop back. :

 

aimed right at us. We need @Stovepipe's analysis. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

RGEM sticking to its guns:

18z                                                                                                                                                                  12z

   

 

Meanwhile the 18z NAM is in another world:

 

 

MA folks seem to think that the NAM did take a step, prior to 48 hours, towards the rest of the models, so I'll hug that idea for now. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think the NAM is just amped....only model showing that up to this point.  As for the 18z RGEM and the 1" of ice for MBY....