February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

Latest EMON is out for the MJO....well, isn't that interesting.  Makes a beeline out of 7 into the COD, makes a move to 6, and then back to background cold phase COD.   Ya'll, I don't think winter is over yet in eastern areas.  It might be, but I think we have a system or two yet to track.  Climo definitely begins to work against some with each passing week after this week...but this year just has the feel that this is now actually winter.   We will see.  And not the pattern hasn't been pushed back...it is just not centered over E TN.  This is a middle and west TN pattern and a doozy at that.  It is one that may well be remembered for some time in the western areas of our subforum.  

[Daniel Boone]

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Latest EMON is out for the MJO....well, isn't that interesting.  Makes a beeline out of 7 into the COD, makes a move to 6, and then back to background cold phase COD.   Ya'll, I don't think winter is over yet in eastern areas.  It might be, but I think we have a system or two yet to track.  Climo definitely begins to work against some with each passing week after this week...but this year just has the feel that this is now actually winter.   We will see.  And not the pattern hasn't been pushed back...it is just not centered over E TN.  This is a middle and west TN pattern and a doozy at that.  It is one that may well be remembered for some time in the western areas of our subforum.  

We'd been in business forum wide had blocking stayed strong. 

    Hopefully, we can either get that to rebuild or get ridging more n2 the west b4 too late as that bermuda high is pretty formidable. MJO going decent amp ph. 8 would of done the trick. I am still in hopes we at least get enough nudge eastward to get Eastern areas in the game. That trough orientation as well as bermuda high is pretty locked, unfortunately for a good while it appears.

 

[Olhausen]

3 hours ago, bearman said:

Glad the guys out west are getting in on the winter WX.   Just hope it can shift into sleet and snow rather than freezing rain.  I hate the ZR. if I had my choice between it and a torch i would take the heat.

Me too and I hate the heat.

[John1122]

My forecast is just ugly today.

Tonight A chance of freezing rain, mainly after 3am. Patchy fog before 10pm, then patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday A chance of rain or freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of freezing rain between 8am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Saturday Night A chance of rain or freezing rain before 11pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 11pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday A chance of freezing rain after 10am, mixing with rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Washington's Birthday A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night Freezing rain. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Sleet likely before 8am, then a chance of snow between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

0z Euro pulls the boundary through after the early week storm and the next system is able to hit a bit further east:

 

It may not happen that way, but that is at least a reasonable evolution of the pattern that could help eastern areas. 

All other modeling has that system too far west for eastern areas, but the CMC does have a second wave ride the front of teh second system, so some hints taht it sees that evolution as possible. 

EPS members see some possibilities there:

 

Again I like that window because it seems a reasonable way that this pattern could hit areas east of BNA. But I've also noticed (and others have mentioned that they've noticed it as well) that these ensemble members seem to follow the OP, at least if you are looking for an individual system. The dispersion is probably good for seeing the pattern's evolution out in time, but I'm not sure it is so great for a specific system. 

Here's an interesting way to visualize that:

 

This is a gif of the 24 hr snowfall at Crossville as the 50 EPS members see it, for the past 7 runs. At first they saw a distinct window centered on the 17th, but over time, that window shifts to the 19th. This seems to follow how far the Euro has seen the boundary making it. I just can't decide if it is a legitimate window, or will the EPS push it back yet again? 

 

 

[Utvols235]

OHX

Early this Friday morning, temperatures were mainly in the 27-32
range with patchy freezing fog/drizzle. The fog was most dense
across the Upper Cumberland. Much of the surface moisture left
over from yesterday had dried up thanks to steady north winds, but
any lingering moisture had likely frozen. With all this in mind,
we have issued a Special Wx Statement highlighting the potential
for ice, especially on elevated surfaces, continuing through the
morning rush hour. For the daytime, skies will remain cloudy
with a chilly north wind. We have lowered forecast high temps
several degrees from our standard model blend, more in line with
the colder NAM guidance.

Through this forecast period, we will be dealing with several
winter wx events that could have significant impacts on travel. An
arctic air mass will continue to be centered over the Upper
Midwest and extend down into Tennessee. As the arctic air mass
sprawls southward, the cold, dense air will be more shallow. This
will maintain our current setup of cold temperatures at the
surface with warmer air several thousand feet up above the
surface. With each expected disturbance through the next 7 days,
the warm air aloft and cold air near the surface will result in
mixed wintry precipitation. At times, the atmosphere will be warm
enough for all rain, and at times the cold air will become deep
enough for all snow. But lots of transitions will make
forecasting exact amounts and impacts very challenging.

The first system will come late tonight through midday Saturday.
This system will track to our southeast and spread moisture up
across the cold air already in place over Middle Tennessee. We
think freezing rain will be the result, but the big question is
how much moisture and precipitation will occur. The latest models
show very light amounts, mainly over the southeast half of our
area. No headlines will be issued at this time, but later today or
tonight, a brief Winter Weather Advisory may be required for
localized travel impacts.

The next system- a much stronger one- will impact the area late
Sunday through Monday and Monday night. This will be a
transitioning system with mainly freezing rain / ice to start,
eventually changing to all snow with accumulations possible.
Details of this complex system are in question at this time, and
model cycles leading up to events have not been very consistent
this winter season. But, significant travel impacts are likely, so
we will highlight that in our Hazardous Wx Outlook and social
media posts.

Yet another round of wintry wx is expected late Wednesday and
Thursday with travel impacts possible.

Other than the winter wx potential, the next 7 days will be very
cloudy and cold. Temperatures will average 10-20 degrees below
normal.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro for middle and western areas:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight Ukie is just redonkulous:

 

If that happens, @AMZ8990  and @Tobiewx will be in for it, lol

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Some fairly significant trends with the MJO today.  The EURO is now forecast to hustle out of 7 and even duck into 8 for a couple of days.  The GFS is now forecast to hustle out of 7(big trend last it was not even getting out of 7 a few days ago...and looping back into 6 if memory serves me correctly), into the COD, and then back to warm phases.  The good news is the MJO is forecast to get out of 7.   Now, both head towards warmer phases at some point...but check the EMON (posted it above) as one potential that might occur.  I suspect we are about to see some model discontinuity coming up.  Often, when we see this push by the Euro...we see changes just after d5.  Let's see its next couple of runs.  That, at the very least, shows a trough in the East for 3-4 days.  With the cold in the pattern right now, 3-4 days of a trough in the east would be nice.

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Overnight Ukie is just redonkulous:

 

If that happens, @AMZ8990  and @Tobiewx will be in for it, lol

 

 

 

Thanks, man, for keeping our middle and west TN folks in mind.  I know we have been focused on the eastern sub-forum areas this winter, but glad we can get the folks out in those areas (who have waited patiently...Memphis has waited seemingly forever) involved in our winter discussions.

[Carvers Gap]

Do we need a new storm thread for the next system or just want to rename the other thread as some sort of multi-day overrunning thread?  It doesn't matter to me as I have no horse in the race...but what is being modeled is significant.  Maybe wait until 12z and then work it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Blue Moon said:

I think we need a new thread. This one could be huge for Middle and West

 

And it is probably fair that the people impacted (y'all) get to pick. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No, I really meant y'all should pick whether we rename or start a new one. 

[AMZ8990]

 We can make a new one or we can integrate into the thread westtnwx made.  I’m flexible either way.  If westtnwx doesn’t respond by lunch then we can make a new thread though.

[Tobiewx]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Overnight Ukie is just redonkulous:

 

If that happens, @AMZ8990  and @Tobiewx will be in for it, lol

 

 

 

Well the mid south is definitely due for a nice event.

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Tobiewx said:

Well the mid south is definitely due for a nice event.

Thinking this is west TN and middle continues its streak of Nada.

[Tobiewx]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Thinking this is west TN and middle continues its streak of Nada.

Well in most cases, when Dallas gets snow, normally that comes right up through even middle Tennessee, I believe middle Tennessee will not be shut out of this event, just may not be all snow, may be lots of ice to deal with, I’m by no means a meteorologist but I have lived in the mid south all my life and more times than not, when it hits Dallas, it normally moves right through the mid south into middle Tennessee, now there are occasions that this has not happened but this is a very cold airmass, we are not dealing with marginal cold here.

 

[Utvols235]

Thinking this is west TN and middle continues its streak of Nada.

Do you have anything positive to say? Always doom and gloom man


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[PowellVolz]

Do you have anything positive to say? Always doom and gloom man


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If this made me as miserable as it seems to make him I would put it down for a while.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think Middle and west TN folks will like the para GFS 16. Will post once its out through next week. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually we won't look past next Thursday for now:

[MSSnow]

Been a longtime lurker and member (under another name but couldn’t remember my password and for some reason could never get the email to reset so created another account) Just wanted to say thanks for the posts that include Mississippi in the discussions. I’ve learned a lot from everyone here just not enough to comment! LOL Will post observations though.

[Utvols235]

If this made me as miserable as it seems to make him I would put it down for a while.


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Been a tough year for Nashville/Mid TN for sure but have two chances (obviously our best in the two years I’ve been in Nashville) to cash in this week. Really good opportunities for something to happen. If models are showing me half decent chances tomorrow I’m going to start getting pretty excited.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Actually we won't look past next Thursday for now:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now. 

[Hilton01]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now. 

Even the minuscule pretty gray burying knox county! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Hilton01 said:

Even the minuscule pretty gray burying knox county! 

If you liked that gray, you'll surely like the National Blend of Models:

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

True, I understand. This is mostly an East Tennessee board it seems

Nope.  We just follow each threat.  Been middle and west for several days.  Totally fine with that BTW.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC/RGEM is developing a low which takes the low road Tuesday.  Modeling seems to be split between sending some energy up the west slopes of the Apps and then developing a lee side low or hybrid Miller A OR just going with a Miller A.  Some fairly different solutions out there right now regarding Tuesday.  ICON/CMC camp vs GFS.

[WestTennWX]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

 We can make a new one or we can integrate into the thread westtnwx made.  I’m flexible either way.  If westtnwx doesn’t respond by lunch then we can make a new thread though.

I went ahead and edited the existing thread, if someone wants to make a new one I'm totally fine with that. Looking forward to the discussion either way.

[AMZ8990]

7 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

I went ahead and edited the existing thread, if someone wants to make a new one I'm totally fine with that. Looking forward to the discussion either way.

Thanks, I’m cool with the existing thread for now.  If we get to Sunday and things are looking great then we may want to make a new thread just for historical reference since a lot of people like to go back through our winter storm threads for data, learning material, etc.