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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

John1122

By John1122,
in Tennessee Valley

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Bigbald said:

Echo this, there has been some dramatic easterly shifts on the gfs suites.  It went from running the low west of the apps, to the spine (transfer to asheville), to the 6z that looks just east of the apps to me. It still looks like ktri need the cold to push further east (still our downfall?) but interesting. Is there a mechanism that can extend the cold east by 100 miles or so?

A little more push via, Hp, kicker systems etc,. Could at least to Clinch Mtn. But, if does cross Cumberlands would probably bank against Smokies. Stick there . For those in at least the western Great Valley, hope for that if u want frozen or snow with early week system.

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AMZ8990
AMZ8990

I’m still in Des Moines guys so I figured I would share a pic with y’all.  Light snow most of the day today.  Wind chill tonight is supposed to be around -30!!!  Next 5-7 days are going be brutally co

Math/Met
Math/Met

Carver,  Just wanted to say that you do a great job with these pattern discussions. It always makes for a good read.

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted

Pretty good consensus amongst the models right now for the storm on Monday into Tuesday.  Euro was the most bullish on totals, keeps West/Middle Tn In rain/ice longer than any of the other models but still puts down an inch for a good portion of west Tn.  All 5 models are on the same page at this point though, so that’s something we’ve got in our favor

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB11
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
THU 12Z 11-FEB   0.6     6.8     131    9227    02008                           
THU 18Z 11-FEB   1.8     4.8     131    9157    02007                           
FRI 00Z 12-FEB   0.7     3.1     130    9465    00006           0.02            
FRI 06Z 12-FEB   0.1     3.4     130    9170    01005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 12-FEB  -2.2     2.5     129    8950    36006           0.00            
FRI 18Z 12-FEB   4.8     2.7     130    8890    01006           0.00            
SAT 00Z 13-FEB   2.8     1.9     130    9218    36007           0.00            
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -0.5     4.2     131    9394    02005           0.00            
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -0.5     4.5     131    8585    01006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -0.1     3.0     130    8963    35007           0.08            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -0.5     2.5     130    8153    35007           0.02            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -1.6     1.7     129    8102    36006           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -3.2     2.0     129    8310    01008           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB   0.9     1.3     129    8914    01008           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB   1.1     1.0     129    8207    02007           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -1.9     2.4     129    8603    01008           0.05            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -4.2    -0.7     128    7846    01009           0.30            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -4.0     0.2     128    7397    03009           0.07            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -3.5     0.3     128    6623    35007           0.11            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -4.9     0.5     128    4141    33006           0.21            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  -7.4    -6.6     126       0    28007           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -3.0   -10.7     125       0    27007           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.7    -9.1     126       0    31005           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -7.8    -5.7     126       0    06003           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -6.2    -0.7     127    2136    05004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   2.1     0.6     129    6065    05004           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB   1.0     1.9     131    6687    00006           0.00            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -1.5     0.4     130    7528    01006           0.08            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -0.6     4.9     131    9725    04006           0.56            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   2.2     4.7     131   10410    02007           0.33            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB   0.1     3.2     130    9797    00008           0.25            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -3.6    -3.2     127       0    31009           0.15            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -6.5    -8.0     126       0    29008           0.02            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -2.5   -10.3     126       0    28008           0.01            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -4.9   -10.8     127       0    28005           0.00
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
Poor Memphis,alot of that is probably IP,not sure if i'd like that ot not,wouldnt go anywhere to soon..lol

  

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB11
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
THU 12Z 11-FEB  -1.3     8.1     131   10162    01008                           
THU 18Z 11-FEB   0.5     5.5     131   10066    01008                           
FRI 00Z 12-FEB   1.2     5.8     130   10160    02008           0.00            
FRI 06Z 12-FEB  -0.7     5.0     130    9947    01008           0.00            
FRI 12Z 12-FEB  -3.6     3.4     129    9413    02009           0.00            
FRI 18Z 12-FEB   2.6     3.9     129    9665    02010           0.00            
SAT 00Z 13-FEB   1.8     3.9     130    9827    01008           0.00            
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -0.8     4.8     130    9554    03009           0.00            
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -2.7     3.0     130    9309    01010           0.00            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -2.0     2.9     129    8390    00011           0.02            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -2.1     2.8     129    9369    01011           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -3.4     2.1     129    8808    02011           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -6.6     1.8     128    8888    02012           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.3     1.8     128    9218    02012           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -1.1     1.8     128    8045    01012           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -4.4     0.6     127    8528    01012           0.04            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -6.7    -1.3     127    6958    01012           0.19            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -3.5    -0.6     127    7327    04010           0.02            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -6.9    -4.1     126       0    35010           0.26            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -8.0    -8.7     125       0    32009           0.01            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -11.1   -12.4     124       0    30006           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -7.3    -9.8     124       0    29005           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -9.9    -5.8     126       0    36005           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -9.2    -1.6     127       0    05003           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -7.4    -1.5     127    3090    04003           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -0.7     0.4     129    5069    07005           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -2.1     0.2     129    7351    03010           0.09            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -2.3     2.0     130    7980    02009           0.88            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -3.5     1.7     130    9310    00010           0.23            
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -3.6     1.0     129    7043    36011           0.18            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -4.6    -3.8     127       0    34012           0.15            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -5.4    -6.4     126       0    33009           0.09            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -9.7    -8.2     126       0    30006           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -3.4    -7.5     127       0    29005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -5.0    -4.7     129     436    21006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.7    -2.1     130    3011    19007           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -4.9    -0.7     131    4197    19007           0.00            
SAT 18Z 20-FEB   5.7     3.6     132    7543    21009           0.00
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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: 

Poor Memphis,alot of that is probably IP,not sure if i'd like that ot not,wouldnt go anywhere to soon..lol

  


CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB11
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
THU 12Z 11-FEB  -1.3     8.1     131   10162    01008                           
THU 18Z 11-FEB   0.5     5.5     131   10066    01008                           
FRI 00Z 12-FEB   1.2     5.8     130   10160    02008           0.00            
FRI 06Z 12-FEB  -0.7     5.0     130    9947    01008           0.00            
FRI 12Z 12-FEB  -3.6     3.4     129    9413    02009           0.00            
FRI 18Z 12-FEB   2.6     3.9     129    9665    02010           0.00            
SAT 00Z 13-FEB   1.8     3.9     130    9827    01008           0.00            
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -0.8     4.8     130    9554    03009           0.00            
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -2.7     3.0     130    9309    01010           0.00            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -2.0     2.9     129    8390    00011           0.02            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -2.1     2.8     129    9369    01011           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -3.4     2.1     129    8808    02011           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -6.6     1.8     128    8888    02012           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.3     1.8     128    9218    02012           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -1.1     1.8     128    8045    01012           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -4.4     0.6     127    8528    01012           0.04            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -6.7    -1.3     127    6958    01012           0.19            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -3.5    -0.6     127    7327    04010           0.02            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -6.9    -4.1     126       0    35010           0.26            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -8.0    -8.7     125       0    32009           0.01            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -11.1   -12.4     124       0    30006           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -7.3    -9.8     124       0    29005           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -9.9    -5.8     126       0    36005           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -9.2    -1.6     127       0    05003           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -7.4    -1.5     127    3090    04003           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -0.7     0.4     129    5069    07005           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -2.1     0.2     129    7351    03010           0.09            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -2.3     2.0     130    7980    02009           0.88            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -3.5     1.7     130    9310    00010           0.23            
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -3.6     1.0     129    7043    36011           0.18            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -4.6    -3.8     127       0    34012           0.15            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -5.4    -6.4     126       0    33009           0.09            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -9.7    -8.2     126       0    30006           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -3.4    -7.5     127       0    29005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -5.0    -4.7     129     436    21006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.7    -2.1     130    3011    19007           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -4.9    -0.7     131    4197    19007           0.00            
SAT 18Z 20-FEB   5.7     3.6     132    7543    21009           0.00

  Would be similar to our last good winter storm it seems like, (january2018). An inch or so of sleet and ice on the bottom with a few inches of snow on top.  With another system 2-4 days after that dropped another 1-3 of sleet/snow.  We were in a similar situation with brutal cold air in place for a week or so also, don’t think it was quite as cold as what’s being modeled now though. Snow/sleet stayed on the ground nearly 10 days.  Longest I’ve ever seen the ground stay white in my 20 years in west Tn.  The similarities of these two time frames/storm systems is interesting.  

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just looking at the snowmegeddon snow axis for west TN, it has shifted into that SE region....there is definitely a press going on there.

The folks in the Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas Arkansas thread are pretty pumped up from what I’ve read.  Euro dumps a lot of snow on them on Sunday to start the show off

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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

IMO the Euro was a bit better, but still drives the low over my head, here in Morgan County. 

Euro ice (FRAM accums, whatever that means):

vpAJY4d.png

 

Euro snow:

ESe3kOK.png

FRAM is the Freezing Rain Accumulation Model..similar to how Kuchera is used for snowfall...simulates the ice to liquid ratio for freezing rain events

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Jed33

Jed33

Posted
Posted

I didn’t see anyone post the crazy Uncle Canuck today? It had light snow across the whole state early next week. It tried to bring in some ice/sleet in the east but the cold deepened just in time it looked like to keep it all snow. It’s the only model that I saw that had that solution today though.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Sort of baffled by the MRX disco talking about freezing rain being an extremely rare event in East Tennessee. It may not happen but to talk about them like they are something so rare is unusual to me. I'd guess there's an ice event in the region every 2-3 years at worst, on average. They were even more frequent prior to the 2000s..

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted 
NWS Memphis taking the threat seriously right now.  Looks like winter storm watches have already gone up In southern Oklahoma and north central Texas.  Below is what NWS has to say for West Tennessee.  




WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

Active winter weather is forecast through next week. Extended
Cold temperatures are expected well into next week as several
weather systems cause a mixture of winter precipitation, some of
which could be significant.

Wind chills Sunday and Monday are forecast to fall below zero
north of I-40 with single numbers in most other places.

Friday night into Saturday light freezing rain/drizzle may cause
travel hazards, especially across north Mississippi.

There is increasing confidence in a major winter storm later
Sunday and Monday over the Mid-South. Significant snow, sleet and
freezing rain may occur causing noteworthy impacts.

Yet another winter weather event may follow for Wednesday/Thursday
next week.

Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and weather conditions. Learn
about winter weather safety and prepare ahead of time at
www.weather.gov/safety/winter

$$

 

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