February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Matthew70]

That’s just cruel.  Winter hates mid TN.  It would take forever for that much sleet to melt.  Tornadoes to ice dams in gutters.  Unreal. Plus roof damage.

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'd love to see it leave 7 behind. 

[John1122]

Another barrel getting ready to fire towards Tennessee and Arkansas next Wednesday. 

[John1122]

Canadian is much colder than the GFS and just has light snow across the state early next week. 

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'd love to see it leave 7 behind.

Yep. It has definitely put a hurting on us here. Crappy things what killed a great pattern getting ready to set in here.

     It along with the IOD was a thorn in our side all Winter last year.

[John1122]

Sharp cutoff on the UKIE. Not sure if it throws out zr/sleet as snow on this map or not. 

[John1122]

Euro continues to live on an island temperature wise vs all other modeling. Way warmer than everyone else. It's predicting highs tomorrow in Southern Illinois in the mid 30s. NWS is predicting upper 20s. 

[Uncle Nasty]

Looking at all the maps that have been posted, the Chattanooga area is oh so close, as usual, for a chance at frozen early next week. It's usually too warm here but a little drop of that lurking cold air can be the difference. This far out it's a toss up. With that said, I found the verbage interesting on the Weather Channel app. I know it's the Weather Channel and their forecast changes with every model run but I found it interesting.

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[Mrwolf1972]

6z gfs moving ice Strom towards the valley on the 16th 6 degree drop in temp compared to 0z.

[John1122]

The GFS is getting colder each run with that big early week event. Snow and sleet in Nashville, probably 2 inches of each. 4-6 inches of snow in west Tennessee. Freezing rain east with the sleet line creeping closer. 

Another big storm after for the western areas. NW Tennessee has a 22 inch snow depth 9 days from now. 15 inch depth in Memphis. 

[John1122]

After looking the gfs snow depth must see all frozen as snow depth for some reason.  Still impressive that western areas keep enough various frozen ptypes on the ground long enough to have the equivalent of 20+ inches of snow on the ground. 

[John1122]

That run of the GFS my high temp during the precip is 24 degrees next Monday and .85 liquid falls at 23-24 degrees. 

My poor satellite will not survive. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Th extended part of the UKMET brings yet another storm with ice over middle TN, after 144:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In other news this morning, the GFS 16 has once again abandoned us for a time  

I'm ready for whatever wildness the NAM will bring over the next few days when it gets the bigger storm early next week into some of its runs. 

[Nash_LSU]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Th extended part of the UKMET brings yet another storm with ice over middle TN, after 144:

It seems like a repeat of 2015 with back to back ice/sleet events for the midstate.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Nash_LSU said:

It seems like a repeat of 2015 with back to back ice/sleet events for the midstate.

I hope y'all don't get so much ice, but it sadly looks like someone in our region is going to. I do think (hope) there is still time for a snowier solution for BNA west, though. 

[Nash_LSU]

This aren't the best pictures, but all that I could find. This is Nashville from February 16, 2015. All of this is sleet/ice. It was a tad slippy.

[Icy Hot]

All the while NE TN will be mid to upper 40s and even 50s all next week. Time to put out grass seed.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN.  And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just  not the NE corner...yet.  Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture.  I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm.  That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday.  This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.  

[Bigbald]

45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN.  And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just  not the NE corner...yet.  Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture.  I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm.  That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday.  This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.  

Echo this, there has been some dramatic easterly shifts on the gfs suites.  It went from running the low west of the apps, to the spine (transfer to asheville), to the 6z that looks just east of the apps to me. It still looks like ktri need the cold to push further east (still our downfall?) but interesting. Is there a mechanism that can extend the cold east by 100 miles or so?

[Wurbus]

GFS about 4 degrees warmer across the board through 84 compared to 06z.

[Wurbus]

FRZ/Sleet across the whole state by 96 except for extreme east TN. Looks like FRZ for Knoxville as well sitting at 32 degrees. We will see if the big chunk of precip comes in as rain or not here in a few.

[TellicoWx]

GFS is just one system after the next for middle/west TN

[Wurbus]

Mostly rain for the 1st system in East TN after the initial onset of FRZ. Middle/West TN still gets in on all the "fun". 2nd system shifted east some, but still all rain for most of middle TN and all of East TN. West TN still has snow/sloppy mess with some backside snow for west/mid TN.

[TellicoWx]

Ugly 12z...systems almost train over the same areas

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET still likes BNA west for snow with the early week system:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The other extended UKMET won't be out until around 130, but looks like it might hit western areas with another snow. 

[AMZ8990]

24 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET still likes BNA west for snow with the early week system:

How did the UKMET do at range with your Christmas snow?  I feel like I remember the GFs being pretty locked into it from a ways out but I may be remembering wrong 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

How did the UKMET do at range with your Christmas snow?  I feel like I remember the GFs being pretty locked into it from a ways out but I may be remembering wrong 

To be honest, IMO, the UKMET has usually been off in its own little world this winter. I still can't tell if the one I post the precip maps from (F5 wx's UKMET that goes out to hr 168) is any different. The visuals pivotal and F5 create for their respective versions of the UKMET data are so different, that it's hard to tell. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro is digging the shortwave for the early week system a little more over N Mexico. Will see if it has any impact as the run wears on.