February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Dsty2001]

I'm guessing a lot of ice?

[Icy Hot]

Wow look at that convection from the GOM feeding into NC. What a frozen tundra that would be!

[Stovepipe]

I'll gladly take my cold shower while y'all go ice skating.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

and that's exactly where it runs the LP:

 

The old killer, "Tn Valley effect". as dubbed years ago .

[Icy Hot]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

The old killer, "Tn Valley effect". as dubbed years ago .

Could the warm nose really reach all the way into OHIO? Seems overdone.

[AMZ8990]

Wind chill values may drop into the single digits along and north
of I-40 Friday morning and across much of the Mid-South Saturday
and Sunday mornings. Below zero wind chills are possible across
northern areas of the Mid-South Sunday morning.

Snow will be possible by early next week with accumulations
possible.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis already mentioning the Sunday thru Tuesday possible system in their hazardous weather outlook.  They’re usually pretty bullish on these things so it’s somewhat note worth that they mention it. 

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Wind chill values may drop into the single digits along and north
of I-40 Friday morning and across much of the Mid-South Saturday
and Sunday mornings. Below zero wind chills are possible across
northern areas of the Mid-South Sunday morning.

Snow will be possible by early next week with accumulations
possible.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis already mentioning the Sunday thru Tuesday possible system in their hazardous weather outlook.  They’re usually pretty bullish on these things so it’s somewhat note worth that they mention it. 

 

I think you guys may have a week of winter weather you talking about for years after this.  

[John1122]

Not sure where it will lead but the GFS is colder to the spine of the Apps this run. 9 degrees colder in Knoxville. Monster winter storm in the western areas still locked in place. 

[John1122]

Still trying to cut on the GFS but a little further east. Probably 3 inches of sleet in Nashville on this run. 

[John1122]

Low went to Tri Cities and then transferred or redeveloped south around Asheville. 

Trend east is better. Wonky Tri to Asheville development unlikely imo. 

[John1122]

Probably the most unrealistic portion of that GFS run is extremely frigid air to the N and W of the low that somehow doesn't get pulled into our area when the low is E and NE of us.  

[AMZ8990]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 

I think you guys may have a week of winter weather you talking about for years after this.  

I hope so!  Would be a once every 30 year type storm if it verifies.  GFS 

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I hope so!  Would be a once every 30 year type storm if it verifies.  GFS 

It won't just be the storm either. It will be the cold before, during and after. 

[Wurbus]

There is a 2nd storm nailing Memphis with snow late next weekend as well. Memphis is going to look like the North Pole if those verify.

[Mrwolf1972]

V16 still gives valley ice 16th 

[John1122]

The V16 takes the low road and scoots the low off the coast of South Carolina, which means more winter state wide with a good thump of snow west of the Plateau. 

[John1122]

West Tennessee has 12-16 inches of snow plus ice, sleet and Arctic air next week. Basically a repeat of February 2015 that happened in the East. 

[AMZ8990]

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It won't just be the storm either. It will be the cold before, during and after. 

Most definitely.  Those are some down right frigid temps being depicted

[John1122]

The GFS is insane. It just never stops snowing and icing. There's also non accounted for sleet in here too. Epic sleet in some areas. 

 

[Wintersnow888]

Don't know if it means anything, but the TWC forecast for here nw of Crossville, close to Monterey, is 1-3 inches of snow for Monday and 3-5 inches for Monday night.  I only mention it because they were closer to right on the last storm than NWS 

[Wintersnow888]

Kinda hoping....

[dwagner88]

I can’t recall ever seeing such a sustained temperature gradient as seen on the 18Z GFS. Comparing CHA to BNA over the next 10 days looks more like a comparison between CHA to CHI in January. We barely even get below freezing, they essentially stay below for 10 days straight with what appears to be 1.50” of ZR and barely any snow. 

[Wintersnow888]

[Icy Hot]

35 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

What's the location?

[Shocker0]

24 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

What's the location?

Wintersnow888 is between Crossville/Monterey like me. Looks like it'll be on the eastern edge of the front currently 

[Stovepipe]

That GFS looks DGEX level crazy.  I'm gonna be over here eating popcorn watching all this unfold.  Stay warm west and middle friends and don't break a hip!

[John1122]

The absolute blowtorch warmnose on the east side of the state whenever any kind of low starts to form anywhere in the west is impressive. This may be close to the set up from the massive 1951 multi day ice storm in Nashville. That was 62 in tri cities and teens in Nashville. 

[John1122]

The sleet storm is just incredible on the GFS. Middle Tennessee and Kentucky would get several inches of it.  

[John1122]

I stayed freezing rain the entire time that run for the Monday Tuesday storm. About .8 freezing rain from it. 

[John1122]

Brutal.