February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Wurbus]

That is a warm nose from hell. I'm not sure I've ever seen one go all the way up into Ohio

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The next piece of energy is going to have a better chance on this run, if it can amplify. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the next one is going to be a hit for someone in the area 

(hedges bets and hides) 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The 12z GFS was 200 miles east of 6z. The Euro shift south from 0z was 700 miles. 

It moved 700 miles?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stole this from southern wx. Run to run temp change on the Euro:

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I mean, this looks like it should end well...

Wow.  I am not sure the cold will get out of the way quickly enough with that.  That is a bananan1046 high over an incoming storm.  That is winter storm city there.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stole this from southern wx. Run to run temp change on the Euro:

It is way more extreme than that.  Let me see if I can grab a map and post it under CG2.

[John1122]

The shifts south and east are determined by blocking over the Great Lakes vs the NAO region. Last night there was a 1040ish high over Minnesota and another in Pennsylvania. The one over Minnesota literally disappeared in 6 hours on the EURO and the storm cut. That run it kept the storm suppressed then got out ahead of it and allowed it to gain latitude. 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It moved 700 miles?

Last night at 0z the storm cut to Ohio. 

[CG2]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stole this from southern wx. Run to run temp change on the Euro:

This is a little earlier in the run....

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Last night at 0z the storm cut to Ohio. 

that was a huge jog wasnt it..lol

[John1122]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

that was a huge jog wasnt it..lol

It went from Detroit to Atlanta in one run. I may rename the Euro the Bandit it got to Atlanta so fast. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Look at how the HP breaks as the storm attacks:

What's to say the high wouldn't break the other way and the storm run up the coast? 

Sure there's no 50/50 to lock the HP in, but we've seen bigger shifts at 5 days out this winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Look at how the HP breaks as the storm attacks:

What's to say the high wouldn't break the other way and the storm run up the coast? 

Sure there's no 50/50 to lock the HP in, but we've seen bigger shifts at 5 days out this winter. 

Thing is the HP might get moved...but that is some really cold air that is going to likely get trapped north of I-40 if that is legit.  That is nasty.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like Miller B on the second one too, at least on this run:

[John1122]

This entire winter we've had one storm that just went from a great track to a cutter and it pulled 400 mile west shifts on all models for 3 consecutive runs. We've had several that tried to come north that ended up further south and east. 

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing is that it is very likely that more precip overruns that boundary earlier.  If that happens, it would quite likely trap the cold in the valley from TYS to SW VA.  It would scour over time, but that is ZR city right there for the eastern valley and way worse for middle TN.

[tnweathernut]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I mean, this looks like it should end well...

We need something to lock the cold air in place.  I don't see that when looking at 500.  It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible.  In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. 

As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way.  Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not ever stop throwing ZR in west TN, and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

We need something to lock the cold air in place.  I don't see that when looking at 500.  It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible.  In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. 

As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way.  Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not every stop throwing ZR and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.

Thing is...the Para-GFS, UKMET, and CMC are even further SE with the cold boundary with the Euro still trending that way.  This might be a case where the cold makes it to the Apps on Tuesday and banks right up against it.  With a 1046 in that position, the cold would run down the spine of the Apps into the eastern valley unit it gets moved out of the way.  IF, IF that looks is legit....eastern valley could be much colder if the precip gets out in front of the low.  Again, I think this boundary keeps pushing eastward to at least the Apps before the SER beats it back.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Another thing to consider, that I've been kicking around in my mind, is the Momentum that's being added to the Polar regions right now (see:

 

Does that aded momentum help push the energy that causes the storm east more quickly (forces it further south and east in its ultimate evolution?), or is the that momentum added too far north to do anything except for the big TPV? 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the 10km UKMET is going to be a sight to behold when it finishes its run out to hr 168, lol. 

Here's how it looks at  hr 120:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not the sight I was hoping for (but still out to hour 138), but still noteworthy for its ice depcition:

 

[Coach B]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not the sight I was hoping for (but still out to hour 138), but still noteworthy for its ice depcition:

 

Frozen in New Orleans and Macon, but a warm nose into middle TN. 

[AMZ8990]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the 10km UKMET is going to be a sight to behold when it finishes its run out to hr 168, lol. 

Here's how it looks at  hr 120:

The magnitude of this is jaw dropping honestly.  I realize it’s still a long way out but you don’t see scenarios like this on models everyday!  

 In regards to Holstons second post.  The ice depiction is not something we’d want to see in this setup, the sheer duration of the event/events could lead to devastating outcomes if ice is involved.  

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Coach B said:

Frozen in New Orleans and Macon, but a warm nose into middle TN

and that's exactly where it runs the LP:

 

[BNAwx]

Unfortunately, like most systems this winter, I don’t think we’ll get a good consensus until about 3 days before the even so I’m sure we’ll see more waffles over the next couple of days.  I can see justification for more of a NW solution as well as a more southerly/easterly track.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the H5 evolution (vort panels aren't loading for some reason):

[tnweathernut]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

and that's exactly where it runs the LP:

 

Looks very similar to the 12z euro at the surface.  That's a heck of a wedge (all the way back into northeast Alabama).  Don't see that depicted every day!

[Carvers Gap]

Tuesday set-up is not good - and I don't mean rain.

[crossbowftw3]

The implications of what these model outputs are putting out is almost staggering. Understanding that they're still just outputs by this point this could be a seriously ugly storm for a large amount of the eastern 2/3 of CONUS if it were to play out verbatim