February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[John1122]

Beautiful UKIE run. It's frigid with more snow. 

[Carvers Gap]

Think E TN will get some looks eventually with this pattern.  The pattern doesn't appear to be going anywhere.   And this is not a pattern that is not producing for the forum area...it is just not producing for all backyards which is understandable given the size and microclimates of our region.  However, this looks like west TN's pattern for now, and it is wild.  I am not complaining.  Yeah, I would like to see more snow IMBY(knee high to a giraffe always!).  However, west TN has had to see the many of us talk about winter for years and years with few results, especially the Memphis area.  Would really like to see Chattanooga sneak into this pattern as well at some point.  West TN(especially Memphis) and Chattanooga have been in a snow/winter wx drought.  

[CG2]

Yet again, the 6z GEFS is depicting a strong snow mean for NE TN and SW VA...and really much of the state given the time of year.  Bet folks in NW MS haven't seen a Feb snow mean like that in a long time!   That is the full run....

[snowmaker]

Here in nw middle tn I stayed between 33-34 all night. Clarksville is just too my east is now at 35. It does look like to me that the temps have started back to dropping a little back in eastern ark and southwest missouri and extreme western ky. Tonight should get interesting here I would think.

[Bigbald]

11 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

I have a feeling this one is going to be very frustrating to watch for those of us East of the Plateau. That SE ridge just isn’t going to allow the cold air into the valley.  

And this sentiment has not changed much through 160....great looking 12z gfs for Memphis 

[Bigbald]

12z downright gaudy for you middle and west folks

 

Edit: this would be the frame to the wall depiction

[BNAwx]

3 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

And this sentiment has not changed much....great looking 12z gfs for Memphis 

It could be right but I still believe these models will correct south and East somewhat as we get closer to the event.  That’s been the seasonal trend and I’ll rise with it until it bucks me off.  LOL!

[Kentucky]

buried 

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

It could be right but I still believe these models will correct south and East somewhat as we get closer to the event.  That’s been the seasonal trend and I’ll rise with it until it bucks me off.  LOL!

I am not so sure on this.  It seems we have had GREAT blocking for a while now, but at the time when the air is coldest our blocking vanishes.  The storms next week may well correct north and/or west.  I still think middle and especially west Tennessee have a LOT of winter coming at them the next 7-10 days.  Hope it provides a memorable period for you guys out that way.....

[Daniel Boone]

I'm with you there bna. The trend has been realized,albeit slow , with this one . The MJO phase is the difference this time. Hopefully, the SE press, trend will be enough to put us all in the game for snow our of this b4 all is settled.

[Daniel Boone]

Should of added what tnweathernut mentioned irt less blocking now. Best we can hope for is MJO propagation to ph. 8. 

[BNAwx]

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I am not so sure on this.  It seems we have had GREAT blocking for a while now, but at the time when the air is coldest our blocking vanishes.  The storms next week may well correct north and/or west.  I still think middle and especially west Tennessee have a LOT of winter coming at them the next 7-10 days.  Hope it provides a memorable period for you guys out that way.....

I'm not so sure the blocking has vanished or will vanish at the timeframe we're looking at (2/15 - 2/17).  Again, I could be wrong.  I'll be anxious to see where it ultimately ends up.  

 

[Stovepipe]

This is not all snow of course, but it's amazing to see how relatively little frozen gets past the plateau.

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

I'm not so sure the blocking has vanished or will vanish at the timeframe we're looking at (2/15 - 2/17).  Again, I could be wrong.  I'll be anxious to see where it ultimately ends up.  

 

Vanishes is probably a poor choice of words.  It does appear it is projected to re-strengthen down the line, although nothing close to what we are coming out of.  The GFS seems to move toward a thumb ridge of sorts around this time in central Canada.  That might help, but the NAO as a whole definitely seems to wane for a period early next week.  Probably doesn't take west and middle TN out of the winter crosshairs though.  Further east, I see it as a problem.

[Carvers Gap]

Para-GFS, CMC, and UKMET at 12z all have something frozen in the eastern valley on Tuesday.  GFS cuts further west.

[BNAwx]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Should of added what tnweathernut mentioned irt less blocking now. Best we can hope for is MJO propagation to ph. 8. 

True.  That's one factor that can definitely point to a more NW track.  Frankly, I'm about 50/50 with this whole setup.   Anthony Masiello had a good tweet recently about the movement of the TPV as well that might shed a little more light on how the models might progress.  Who knows....?

 

[Daniel Boone]

Tnwxnut, I see your concerns, particularly over there. Man, u all have been shortchanged irt snow again this season. I've been fortunate here with 25.1 inches so far. I sure hope something occurs that delivers for you all. 

      Glad for the western forum snow lovers.  Still believe there'll be a couple decent shots further east as well.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Tnwxnut, I see your concerns, particularly over there. Man, u all have been shortchanged irt snow again this season. I've been fortunate here with 25.1 inches so far. I sure hope something occurs that delivers for you all. 

      Glad for the western forum snow lovers.  Still believe there'll be a couple decent shots further east as well.

I feel we have had a good winter.  Any time you can score a Christmas snow it automatically becomes at least ............  good!  Then, we have had a couple of minor snows as well.  All in all it's felt MUCH closer to what I remember winter being when I was a kid.

Looking forward, I'm a bit of a pessimist for northeast TN this AM.  I thought the very cold air would have an easier time pressing more east vs. south. Up here, we can hope the SE ridge doesn't flex and continues to be overdone on modeling when looking at next week. 

As a side note, I have gotten to the point where I enjoy hunting 6-12 inch snows more than nickel and dime events.  I know I can go to the mountains to see them, but nothing like a snow in your back yard.  Back in the 90's (considered a blazing hot decade and relatively snowless) I got to experience 2 separate 12 inch snows, and just missed the other (blizzard of 93, left JC to go home - Gallatin - for spring break).  I'm not sure what changed since then, but we have managed to elude the 12 inch mark since 1998...... where I live.  Seems we are well over-due, so maybe we find a big one before this year is done?

At any rate, it looks golden for winter weather in west and parts of middle TN, which is awesome to see!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

30 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I'm not sure what changed since then, but we have managed to elude the 12 inch mark since 1998.....

Same for me, but since 1996. Just bad luck in the places I've lived in E TN. I can't complain too much though, since I've occasionally lucked out in some of these marginal  setups. 

UKMET looks like it should be interesting once it finishes running. Pivotal ends the 12z run with this 6 hour total snowfall image at hr 144:

 

My version goes out to hr168. 

[Jed33]

I definitely would enjoy a 12+ event here too, as I’ve never experienced one in my backyard. There have been some where I’ve lived, but during the time I’ve lived there, it just hasn’t worked out for me to experience it. Now that said, Memphis is probably overdue a big snowfall more than any other city in this state. I couldn’t tell you when the last 4in snow there was, and certainly not the last 6 or 12in snow was. I’d say you’d have to go back to 1988 to find a snow of greater than 6in for Memphis. It’s funny though, bc if you look at their records, 12in events used to happen even there about once every 10-20 years on average and sometimes, like in the 80’s it was even more common than that.  Snowfall in general has been less than normal across the whole state, but it seems Memphis has suffered the most, followed by Nashville, then Chattanooga. The Eastern Valley has done better this year and really the past couple, but you’d have to go back to 2015 and 2016 to find the last good ones even here until the Christmas storm came around.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Same for me, but since 1996. Just bad luck in the places I've lived in E TN. I can't complain too much though, since I've occasionally lucked out in some of these marginal  setups. 

UKMET looks like it should be interesting once it finishes running. Pivotal ends the 12z run with this 6 hour total snowfall image at hr 144:

 

My version goes out to hr168. 

Pivotal looks good through 144.  Looks like the entire state has 2+"...maybe almost the entire forum area.

[Nash_LSU]

Y'all talking about a 12" event are getting greedy I'll settle for a 2" event. I haven't had anything in a few years.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Normally you would think this was a good look, lol:

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro run has pushed the gradient further eastward on Tuesday through 123.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I mean, this looks like it should end well...

[jaxjagman]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB10
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
WED 12Z 10-FEB   3.7     6.5     134    8382    04002                           
WED 18Z 10-FEB  13.6     6.8     135    9018    25003                           
THU 00Z 11-FEB   6.4     7.3     134    9271    35008           0.02            
THU 06Z 11-FEB   2.0     6.2     132    9462    00006           0.07            
THU 12Z 11-FEB  -0.1     4.7     131   10029    01008           0.12            
THU 18Z 11-FEB   1.3     3.2     131    8800    02007           0.14            
FRI 00Z 12-FEB   2.1     2.7     130    9386    01005           0.03            
FRI 06Z 12-FEB   0.0     3.3     130    9328    00005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 12-FEB  -3.0     3.0     130    8850    01005           0.00            
FRI 18Z 12-FEB   4.7     5.6     131    8799    01005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 13-FEB   3.3     3.0     131    8934    36006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 13-FEB   1.1     4.7     131    8438    01006           0.00            
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -0.5     4.5     131    8155    36007           0.23            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -0.2     2.4     130    7887    35007           0.11            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -0.2     1.3     129    7567    35007           0.01            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -0.8     1.9     129    8804    01006           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -2.6    -0.4     129    8372    01008           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB   0.6    -0.7     129    6389    01008           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB   0.3    -0.9     129    7092    02007           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -1.6     0.6     129    7345    02009           0.00            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -4.6     1.4     128    6987    02009           0.06            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -3.3     1.3     128    7815    03009           0.06            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -2.0     4.2     130    7568    03007           0.03            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -1.1     4.3     132    7508    05004           0.60            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  -2.4     0.6     129    3314    28007           0.06

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's what we end up with:

 

the main energy just runs too far north:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the evolution in terms of precip:

[John1122]

The 12z GFS was 200 miles east of 6z. The Euro shift south from 0z was 700 miles. 

[Carvers Gap]

That is a significant move eastward of the boundary.  In NE TN temps are almost 20F+ colder than the previous run...