February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[CG2]

My temp next Sunday just went from 40 to 10 for the low!  Now, again there is a storm that almost phases in time for our area...it shoots up the coast and brings the cold down.  But this is a great illustration of how I don't think late next week is nailed down yet.  The GFS has been adamant that things get pretty wild after Wednesday.  The Euro, while not there yet, made a very big move towards the GFS (colder) solutions.  Really, the CMC did TR/F but lost the cold over the weekend.

[CG2]

Now, it is very normal for wx patterns do get moved around d6-7.  What is interesting, the EURO is more aggressive in moving the MJO out of 7 and into the COD or the lowest corner of phase 8. - meaning background phase is cold at the very least.  I told @tnweathernut that I was perplexed that the GEFS was cold while the EPS had the better MJO look...maybe they are now correcting towards a meaningful solutuion.  Check out the difference next Sunday in terms of the cold anomalies.  The Euro just moved the coldest air from Montana to the Great Lakes.  Great pattern if we can get a storm...

[WestTennWX]

Watching this closely here in NW Tennessee...been waiting for the Euro to cave. I'm liking our chances with this setup!

That is some brutal cold being modeled- going to bring some firewood in and gas up the generator just in case some of the ZR verifies.

Gong to be an interesting week.

[Daniel Boone]

The evolution all makes sense as the Euros western bias was most likely culprit of it's recent depictions. Models in general will probably trend more South and east in response to blocking as has been the case this season. Add the now active MJO and it should aid further propagation later on, providing it goes phase 8.

[CG2]

MJO for both the GFS/GEFS and EURO...

 

Note the Euro moving quickly out of 7 and into background phase 8.  Makes sense for that model to trend colder.

 

Note the GEFS is stalled in 7...

CHI diagram from yesterday...Note the new wave off Eastern Africa which would be phases 1-2.  It propagates eastward which I infer to mean the MJO will make another full circuit if that verifies.  

Will throw in the hi-res GFS/GEFS for good measure...I do NOT like that it appears to curl back.

 

Here is the CA, but it has had a bias for phase 8 all winter(keep that in mind).

[CG2]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

The evolution all makes sense as the Euros western bias was most likely culprit of it's recent depictions. Models in general will probably trend more South and east in response to blocking as has been the case this season. Add the now active MJO and it should aid further propagation later on, providing it goes phase 8.

The 12z Euro has come back to other modeling.  Easier now to work through details now that the models are not in two different camps.  

[Daniel Boone]

Phase 7 can be good here in snowfall terms as long as blocking is present. Today's an example. Actually, just coming into it.

[Matthew70]

It is pretty crazy four days ago it was predicted to be sunny and 55 here then two days ago it was 45 and cloudy now the high is 32 to 33 and cloudy.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

It is pretty crazy four days ago it was predicted to be sunny and 55 here then two days ago it was 45 and cloudy now the high is 32 to 33 and cloudy.

I think two pieces are on the playing field which is giving models fits

1.  -NAO

2.  Very cold air in southern Canada and northern tier of the lower 48

Just going to have to roll with pattern recognition.  Storm tracks should be suppressed and the NAO should force the cold east either in pieces or one lump sum payment.  If the Euro is changing that much now, there may still be changes afoot - in either direction to the good or bad regarding wintery precip.  

[Daniel Boone]

That mid week system still bares watching, particularly northern and western areas. Se trend ftw .

[BNAwx]

I also like to keep in mind the seasonal trend.  Thanks to the -NAO, the SER has been beaten back after showing up strongly on modeling in long lead times.   I think persistence is the key here.  I guess "dance with the one that brung ya'" is my way of looking at it. 

[PowellVolz]

Had I known it was going to be this nice in Knoxville today I would have played golf.

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[John1122]

They'll probably not change that and leave it as an AN day.  

I saw a story about snow measurements, someone at the obs site in one city didn't clear the snow board at all for 30 hours and recorded a measurements 8 inches less than surrounding sites. Another cleared it too frequently and recorded 4 inches more than any site around them. They lowered the extra 4 inches measurement by 6 inches and left the one that was 8 inches short alone. 

That's part of the reason yearly snow numbers are down so dramatically around the country.  1996 here is filled with missing data. It was one of the snowiest if not the snowiest year in Knoxville in the last 25 years. Same with Tri-Cities. Yet there's a ton of M for missing snow data in the record and official totals are less than half what actually fell that year.  

[Matthew70]

38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Had I known it was going to be this nice in Knoxville today I would have played golf.
 

 

 

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It was 62 in Knoxville today?  Sheesh here in Nashville barley above freezing.

[John1122]

Theres tons of sleet on top of this for the western half of the forum region too. With snow inbound just after it. I don't have the sleet maps but it's a long duration heavy sleet event. 

[John1122]

There's a 33 degree difference between NW Tennessee and NE Tennessee the 16th. And it's 28 degrees in far NE Tn. That's just how cold the west side of the valley is at that time. 

[Mrwolf1972]

This run of the gfs not good for snow or cold so far hope it's not going backwards on us.

[Matthew70]

Call me skeptical.  Another 7-9 day chance at winter wx.  The mirage stays at that distance and never gets closer.  Try to keep positive but after 3 winters the same eventually become woke and say just a mirage. 

[John1122]

26 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Call me skeptical.  Another 7-9 day chance at winter wx.  The mirage stays at that distance and never gets closer.  Try to keep positive but after 3 winters the same eventually become woke and say just a mirage. 

Wintery precip is in the forum region at day 3 on that run. 

[Icy Hot]

MRX says no frozen precipitation in NE TN Valley this week. Wish it were false, but it is what it is.

[snowmaker]

GFS still showed a round of ice and then snow with the first 2 systems on the GFS from what I seen. 

[Dsty2001]

31 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

MRX says no frozen precipitation in NE TN Valley this week. Wish it were false, but it is what it is.

MRX also discounted snow for a good chunk of this forum for yesterday/this morning, and tend to play on the conservative side of things. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the 18z GFS and 12z Euro have indeed reversed rolls for next weekend.  Well, at least both now correlate their MJO looks.    

 

[PowellVolz]

It was 62 in Knoxville today?  Sheesh here in Nashville barley above freezing.

No. It didn’t make it out of the 30’s. Not sure how they made that mistake though


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[PowellVolz]

Call me skeptical.  Another 7-9 day chance at winter wx.  The mirage stays at that distance and never gets closer.  Try to keep positive but after 3 winters the same eventually become woke and say just a mirage. 

Would you rather us not conversate about the weather more than a day or two before a system gets here? IMO there’s something very satisfying about tracking a storm 10 days out and walking it home. I’ve learned a lot just this year in the 5-10d range with the mods tendencies and biases.


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[jaxjagman]

Nice trough going through East Asia today in the long range.Euro didn't show this yesterday.This should possibly effect us around the 22-23rd if it does not change any.

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Would you rather us not conversate about the weather more than a day or two before a system gets here? IMO there’s something very satisfying about tracking a storm 10 days out and walking it home. I’ve learned a lot just this year in the 5-10d range with the mods tendencies and biases.


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Not at all saying not to discuss.  I love wx but winter wx is extremely hard to forecast.  Maybe it’s me but to me winter forecast are much harder than any other season to forecast. 

[PowellVolz]

Not at all saying not to discuss.  I love wx but winter wx is extremely hard to forecast.  Maybe it’s me but to me winter forecast are much harder than any other season to forecast. 

I absolutely agree with that and I understand your frustration living in the mid state where you all have hit a dry spell the last 10 years. We in Knoxville usually share that same frustration but this season has been a good one for us. My location is a good one for living in the valley but 4 to 5 times a year I can drive 20 minutes and be in a completely different climate while back at my house it’s 33 and rain. It sucks but it is what it is. I wouldn’t trade living in ETn for nothing even though I’m always on the outside looking in. Your time will come, just keep a positive outlook and enjoy the ride.


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[TellicoWx]

41 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Not at all saying not to discuss.  I love wx but winter wx is extremely hard to forecast.  Maybe it’s me but to me winter forecast are much harder than any other season to forecast. 

Winter weather isn't as difficult to forecast as it seems, starts with pattern recognition at 500. What is difficult, is living and dying by every model run. Remember models are just one small piece of the puzzle. Learn from Carvers/Jax/John/Holston (just to name a few), and figure out if what those mods are showing makes any sense.

[snowmaker]

Looks like the 18z euro went colder.