February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

You are a Debbie Downer on every single forum.

Well growing up with snow and never seeing it.  Well it gets to one.  Being a realist is not being a downer.  We bit on the gfs and really should know better.  Take a look many others are frustrated in mid TN and west TN.  It’s not just me. 

[jaxjagman]

28 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

You're not being a realist if you make claims without evidence to support them.

I understand the frustration, but you made the choice to live in a region with paltry snowfall. You should consider a drive to a snowy area- the Apps are having a pretty good winter- or you could always move to a place that gets more snow.

Drive to the Plateau, man. It's Sunday, so I'm assuming you're off work. Would be a great day to get out and see those spots that have picked up 4-6". Stop at a state park and make it a day trip.

What kind if claim are you looking for,we live in a hole surrounded by rims.We don't get snows like you guys do  in the east,never will

[Shocker0]

30 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

You're not being a realist if you make claims without evidence to support them.

I understand the frustration, but you made the choice to live in a region with paltry snowfall. You should consider a drive to a snowy area- the Apps are having a pretty good winter- or you could always move to a place that gets more snow.

Drive to the Plateau, man. It's Sunday, so I'm assuming you're off work. Would be a great day to get out and see those spots that have picked up 4-6". Stop at a state park and make it a day trip.

We have a campground right by I40 here in Crossville that is always beautiful. If I can wake up early enough I'm gonna try to get pics of it with the snow on the trees. Here was a pic from a few hours ago. It's peaceful there. Only 1.5 hours from Nashville and literally right off the interstate so it's easy to get in and out of.

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

We have a campground right by I40 here in Crossville that is always beautiful. If I can wake up early enough I'm gonna try to get pics of it with the snow on the trees. Here was a pic from a few hours ago. It's peaceful there. Only 1.5 hours from Nashville and literally right off the interstate so it's easy to get in and out of.

That's purty

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I live in the Mid-State

Then i stand corrected,my bad

[Shocker0]

34 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

That's purty

Yeah I try to go there every time it snows now since I don't really have any woods by my house and that place is just down the road. Id like to get a cabin there some day before a big snow is in the forecast and just relax on the porch and watch

[John1122]

The GFS and Euro continue to battle for our very souls. Massive differences and neither is backing down really.

06Z is icy and snowy both for the area. 

 

All the snow in the  middle and west and about half of what is shown here east of the Plateau falls after the event happening now.

 

So either the south is primed for some harsh winter weather or maybe not, according to which wins between the Euro and GFS/Canadian model suite.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At least we aren't flooding yet. Though.....

The Parallel Euro that hammered Atlanta with snow just a couple of days ago, now gives us a good start:

 

EPS has a few concerning members, but few and far between:

Some of that would be snow though, at least for Crossville:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wintersnow888]

Hey how do I upload photos over the size allowed?

[Carvers Gap]

I continue to lean towards the GFS in the medium and LR.   The Euro does well once it gets past the time time frame where it plays in the West.  All modeling lost last night's system for about 36 hours if I remember correctly.  Just have to roll with pattern recognition.  This "should" be a very wintery pattern if the cold presses east to the Apps.  It makes sense for cold to bank up against the Plateau or the west slops of the Apps.  That is kind of an old school pattern modeled on the GFS and CMC to some extent.  Again, I think we see the first bout of winter in west TN and then the gradient pushes slowly eastward.  Several systems likely ride this boundary.  I could easily be wrong, but that is my current thinking.  The 6z GFS is really a perfect run in terms of set-up. 

[tnweathernut]

I noticed the GFS next Saturday morning at 7am had temps between 1 below and 6 above across all of far western TN.  The euro at the same time has 41 to 45.  Have fun forecasting the weekend with that kind of difference..........

[Carvers Gap]

I am really liking western areas of the forum for winter weather this week and into the weekend.  I know these past few winters have been hot garbage out there and discussion has been minimal for there, but this may well be a really good pattern there.  I think the cold presses eastward over time, but west TN gets first dibs with this - I think.  Reminds me of some of these patterns during the 70s.  The temp gradient across TN next week may be something to behold.  

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am really liking western areas of the forum for winter weather this week and into the weekend.  I know these past few winters have been hot garbage out there and discussion has been minimal for there, but this may well be a really good pattern there.  I think the cold presses eastward over time, but west TN gets first dibs with this - I think.  Reminds me of some of these patterns during the 70s.  The temp gradient across TN next week may be something to behold.  

Agree, 100%.  Hope you guys can score 1 or 2 out that way.....  amd I hope it’s more sleet and snow vs ZR.

[Carvers Gap]

As BNA notes, highly doubt modeling has this boundary "right" at this point.  That needs to be said often.  Looks like we have phase 7(maybe pushing to phase 8).  To me that means cold pushes, the ridge fights, and this forum area is in that battle zone.  If you want winter storms, that is where you want to be.  Early idea, again, would be to favor western areas, and then things push east.  It is also important to remember how tough a time models have with modeling cold air.  Sometimes it has a tendency to sneak further than what is modeled.  And sometimes it is slower than modeled, but still gets there.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to give Larry Cosgrove some credit on this before hand...He really likes the time frame just before and around Valentine's Day. He has done well this year.  Should just be able to sign-up for his newsletter.  I follow him on FB.  His newsletter from last night was really good.  Just looking at the 0z EPS, he might be on to something.  Looks like the next legit window for eastern areas of the subform.  He also thinks this pattern may push into March as well.  

[Kasper]

12z GFS is still holding solid with Cold this weekend.Those Temps are brutal.

[Mrwolf1972]

Nice system for the valley and mountains on the 14th again. On gfs

[Save the itchy algae!]

7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

What kind if claim are you looking for,we live in a hole surrounded by rims.We don't get snows like you guys do  in the east,never will

If Nash is a hole surrounded by rims then Knox is the Mariana trench surrounded by the Himalayas.  

[Olhausen]

56 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

If Nash is a hole surrounded by rims then Knox is the Mariana trench surrounded by the Himalayas.  

To be fair We do score much better up on the rim just 35 minutes north of Nashville. Heck even 20 minutes south of here in Hendersonville doesn’t do nearly as good with winter events. I guess my point is I understand the frustration of those living in the bowl / snow dome. Hopefully west and middle Tennessee can get a good storm here soon.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Going to give Larry Cosgrove some credit on this before hand...He really likes the time frame just before and around Valentine's Day. He has done well this year.  Should just be able to sign-up for his newsletter.  I follow him on FB.  His newsletter from last night was really good.  Just looking at the 0z EPS, he might be on to something.  Looks like the next legit window for eastern areas of the subform.  He also thinks this pattern may push into March as well.  

Used to correspond with Larry quite a bit. Great guy ! He is who talked Dave Dierks into taking Meteorology at Iowa State with him. 

     Very knowledgeable and one of the best pattern recognition and long range guys .

[snowmaker]

10 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

To be fair We do score much better up on the rim just 35 minutes north of Nashville. Heck even 20 minutes south of here in Hendersonville doesn’t do nearly as good with winter events. I guess my point is I understand the frustration of those living in the bowl / snow dome. Hopefully west and middle Tennessee can get a good storm here soon.

I live just outside of clarksville in western Montgomery County. Not too far from you.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC is definitely less cold for next weekend.  Thing is...it presses the ice/snow line much further south for Weds/Thurs.  Moved it from the Ohio River to almost Corbin.  Seems like the trend is to press that cold a bit more at 12z(and has been for several runs).  Starting to agree with a comment that Bob Chill made in the MA...deep cold and monster SERs are not verifying in modeling this winter.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I continue to lean towards the GFS in the medium and LR.   The Euro does well once it gets past the time time frame where it plays in the West.  All modeling lost last night's system for about 36 hours if I remember correctly.  Just have to roll with pattern recognition.  This "should" be a very wintery pattern if the cold presses east to the Apps.  It makes sense for cold to bank up against the Plateau or the west slops of the Apps.  That is kind of an old school pattern modeled on the GFS and CMC to some extent.  Again, I think we see the first bout of winter in west TN and then the gradient pushes slowly eastward.  Several systems likely ride this boundary.  I could easily be wrong, but that is my current thinking.  The 6z GFS is really a perfect run in terms of set-up. 

Depending on how much blocking , things could still come a bit further east than the basically, phase 7 depiction. For cold/snow lovers particularly in the entire forum, hope for it to go healthy phase 8 next week. As you noted Carvers , phase 7 bordering 8 puts us in the game for alot of action. Constant bitter cold probably western areas with that. 

   Just my old school worn out ,out of date 2 cents.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Depending on how much blocking , things could still come a bit further east than the basically, phase 7 depiction. For cold/snow lovers particularly in the entire forum, hope for it to go healthy phase 8 next week. As you noted Carvers , phase 7 bordering 8 puts us in the game for alot of action. Constant bitter cold probably western areas with that. 

   Just my old school worn out ,out of date 2 cents.

The 12z Euro has taken a step towards the GFS.  Compared to yesterday(for next weekend), much cooler.  The run-to-run map for next Friday is much cooler.  Not wintery yet, but one more step and it might be.

[Carvers Gap]

That is almost a "cave" by the Euro for next Thurs-Sat for this subform area.  The run-to-run temps are 20-30 degrees colder than 0z for Saturday.

[Carvers Gap]

There is very nearly a storm next Saturday with the phase just missing.  BIG change.

[Carvers Gap]

By 162, the 12z Euro is sporting a trough over the eastern US.

[Mrwolf1972]

Looks like the cold invades on Sunday according to the 12 euro. But not as cold as gfs.

[CG2]

From my bootleg account, here is the run-to-run change for the 12z Euro for next Sunday.

[CG2]

2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Looks like the cold invades on Sunday according to the 12 euro.

Check this R2R change out for later in the day(from what I posted above)...