February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, CG2 said:

40 MB stronger, my friend.  Will post some more later.  LOL!!!!

Just went for it, huh, lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No Feagin's Gap, lol? 

Eastman_Bubble_Destroyer

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS looks like it is pushing the cold east a little quicker than the OP, but tough to tell since I'm having to switch back and forth between services to see the differences. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Def. quicker with the front. Nice product from TrueWeather:

 

Mean isobars in black, mean Hs and Ls (large in red and blue) and individual members in red and blue (little hs and ls)

[Stovepipe]

39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run.  Not used to seeing it so robust.  Some of you might be wondering about maps.  It is not a tease.  Been out of memory for about two years.  Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space!  LOL...kidding, not kidding.  CG2 might be in my future.

You should consider signing up for a free account on imgur.com.  Copy map, paste on imgur, copy image URL, past here.  Unlimited.

[John1122]

The Euro tries to cut at the end of it's run, even though massive blocking is in place. That has shown up before this year, it didn't happen. I want to say our early January snow event was a cutter on the Euro initially.

[John1122]

The EPS has a banana high set up going at the time the OP is a cutter.  I would guess it will trend away from that and probably keep trending colder. The OP is warmer than the ensembles and that is often the case, the OPs are usually more extreme one way or another.

[Kasper]

3 hours ago, Olhausen said:

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

That’s a hard pass for me, I would be cleaning up for months 

[AMZ8990]

 I’m still in Des Moines guys so I figured I would share a pic with y’all.  Light snow most of the day today.  Wind chill tonight is supposed to be around -30!!!  Next 5-7 days are going be brutally cold as well, I’m gonna freeze my butt off!  

[Matthew70]

Any EPS mean members to be posted?

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Any EPS mean members to be posted?

I’ve glanced at the individual panels day 5, mostly rainy with a few throwing frozen and day 7 and 10 which include MANY more panels with snow/ice.  There are numerous individuals that get the front all the way to the east coast.

[CG2]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

No Feagin's Gap, lol? 

Eastman_Bubble_Destroyer

Man, would either would have been awesome.  We run that hill at Feagins Gap some days.  Makes me hurt to think about it.  LOL.  (not the hill from Feagins to Cherry Knobs though...check engine light would come on while going up that beast).  

[CG2]

Pretty sure the 18z GFS just gave E TN 16-20" of snow for the run....looks like one of those ensemble run members.  LOL.

[CG2]

In the realm of "not gonna happen," but just for kicks and giggles here is the d1-16 snow map from the happy hour run of the GFS...

[CG2]

Here is WxBell for the same run...I don't even know what to say.  Just file this away..WRDSR - World Record Digital Snow Run.  

[John1122]

The long range is showing the potential of the pattern if nothing else. Much better than endless warmth or cutters like last year  and the year before. 

[Jed33]

1 minute ago, CG2 said:

Here is WxBell for the same run...I don't even know what to say.  

Looks like a repeat of February-March 1960!

[CG2]

It is Friday night and time to enjoy this map...take a look at the max on this map.

[Bigbald]

At dinner, can someone give me the synopsis for how that happened ha? Boundary setup east along the Apps?

[CG2]

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Lake Effect cities, the Panhandle in Maryland, New Jersey, Mountain City, and Boone..........LOL.  

 

(For new folks...this is all in fun.  Just enjoying a wild run.  I am 100% aware this is unlikely, but it is worth a post)

[CG2]

4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

At dinner, can someone give me the synopsis for how that happened ha? Boundary setup east along the Apps?

Great question.  One big storm after another and cold air sitting over the Great Lakes which cranks Lake Effect snow.  Basically the southern branch just rips along the Arctic boundary.  

[TellicoWx]

Okay, who's the wise ass that overlayed Siberia's snowfall map over the eastern US

[BNAwx]

9 minutes ago, CG2 said:

It is Friday night and time to enjoy this map...take a look at the max on this map.

 

[Stovepipe]

14 minutes ago, CG2 said:

It is Friday night and time to enjoy this map...take a look at the max on this map.

[BNAwx]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Okay, who's the wise ass that overlayed Siberia's snowfall map over the eastern US

Can you imagine what the old DGEX would look like?  

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

Can you imagine what the old DGEX would look like?  

Wish it still ran, miss some of its output maps...47" in Miami FL lol

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The long range is showing the potential of the pattern if nothing else. Much better than endless warmth or cutters like last year  and the year before. 

For sure.  Agree.  It has been interesting to see multiple models produce crazy runs at various times.  Wonder what it would have been like during those great winters of the past to see the pattern on computer models well in advance?  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, CG2 said:

Here is WxBell for the same run...I don't even know what to say.  Just file this away..WRDSR - World Record Digital Snow Run.  

[Wurbus]

CMC just killed the power across all of TN again.There is still freezing rain coming down in west/middle TN at 240!

[Matthew70]

Well GFS and CMC are all alone and most likely will come back to reality any day now.  Warm rains are on the way.