February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Matthew70]

Will be interesting what the Doc says.  He may say 75 and severe storms with way he’s been going.  

[VOLtage]

51 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Holly ice storm on 16th on gfs

That would be absolutely devastating if that occurs.

[Bigbald]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

Will be interesting what the Doc says.  He may say 75 and severe storms with way he’s been going.  

I doubt it, this is remarkable model agreement right now at 12z less a few details.

[Olhausen]

5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I live in same area. The Woodlands still show the scars of the last really bad one we had in 1994

I drove through Kentucky I believe in February 09 a few weeks after a bad one and knew it was one type of winter weather I didn’t want. We were actually forecasted to get that one but temps rose a degree or two over freezing and we ended up with less then a half inch of zr. About 50-75 miles north in Kentucky stayed below freezing and got hammered. The thing that worries me the most is the temps it’s showing following this storm. All of middle Tennessee will be a skating rink with no power if this were to verify.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is rolling.  Will split my commentary between two threads...the storm thread for tonight's potential even and then back here for the overrunning event.  Will be interesting if the Euro finally moves to the CMC/GFS combo.   Wasn't there overnight...so really looking for trends - especially if it speeds up the front next week or has more cold behind it.

[PowellVolz]

One thing we’ve always agreed on though, is that you don’t want to be the bullseye 5-10 days out. Hopefully this doesn’t pan out for anyone but it’s not a good look at this point.


.

[TellicoWx]

If I was you folks west of the plateau, I would be very concerned. Been a long time since I had to look at the research OU did. While the study mainly focused on the southern plains, it held true during the last ice storm here in the valley. Models tend to do two things when dealing with this type of true arctic cold...they underestimate how far the low level cold extends (while our resolution has improved over the years, globals still don't have the resolution to sim the very lowest levels with a great deal of accuracy this far in advance..so they bust to the high side) and two they scour it out to quickly for the same reason (surface level resolution). Only thing saving the eastern valley is the plateau, but if the shallow layer arctic air is a tad deeper, it will spill over that as well.

[Bigbald]

I am not real familiar with Ukie,  Orientation is quite different here at 140ish.  Does anyone have beyond that hour?

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 66, the 12z Euro is a tick faster with the front (maybe 30-40 miles faster).

[Silas Lang]

Is there any chance that ice could fall as sleet, snow, or mix? Anything else is better than ice. Or any chance it could cut north? Would rather a cutter than ice. 

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Silas Lang said:

Is there any chance that ice could fall as sleet, snow, or mix? Anything else is better than ice. Or any chance it could cut north? Would rather a cutter than ice. 

More as sleet, yes. Depends on how thick the surface layer is. It's waves overrunning the boundary, southerly flow in the mid levels..so wouldn't be a cutter unless you can get cyclogenesis at the surface

[Carvers Gap]

Can't see the surface yet, but the Euro is much colder at 82 re: run-to-run temp change.  

Edit:  Think this is just a case of the Euro being overly warm and coming back to other modeling.   

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

I am not real familiar with Ukie,  Orientation is quite different here at 140ish.  Does anyone have beyond that hour?

UKie Op only runs out to 144

[Carvers Gap]

On a very small scale(just looking at KY/TN, the Euro has trended further SE with its cold at 102.  It isn't by much at this point, but may bake a difference down the line.

[Carvers Gap]

Overall, the 12z Euro has trended colder over the SE in general though AN temps certainly remain south of the TN border - they just are't as warm.  So right now, the trend is towards the GFS in regards to temps.  Not there yet and likely won't be this run, but a move in that direction.  At 111, it is 5-10 degrees colder than 0z over middle and west TN.  

[Carvers Gap]

Overall, the 12z Euro looks to hold the ZR over the Ohio River.  BUT, the model has cooled considerably.  

[Kasper]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Especially north of 40. Euro is the third mod today laying down 4-6” in my area.


.

Clouds have been our friend today!

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro at face value looks similar to 0z.  However, it is finally correcting to placing more cold in the Plains.  A step towards the GFS if you will.

[jaxjagman]

Euro has a boundary over Tn with DP's 60 in some places very little SHOWALTER but instability is showing.I remember when the Euro use to be money even in the long range especially 5-6 days out it was locked in,not no mo.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB06
                 2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    6 HR    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     DEW    CAPE     QPF     CVP     NCP     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    J/KG    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 06-FEB   0.0    -3.5       0                             549     534    
SAT 18Z 06-FEB   8.2    -1.1       0                             552     536    
SUN 00Z 07-FEB   5.2    -0.8       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     551     539    
SUN 06Z 07-FEB   1.4     1.4       0    0.20    0.03    0.17     548     535    
SUN 12Z 07-FEB  -1.7    -3.0       2    0.08    0.00    0.08     547     531    
SUN 18Z 07-FEB   3.2    -4.8       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     551     533    
MON 00Z 08-FEB   0.7    -5.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     555     537    
MON 06Z 08-FEB  -3.6    -7.5       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     560     541    
MON 12Z 08-FEB  -4.6    -6.7       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     562     543    
MON 18Z 08-FEB   9.7     1.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     564     546    
TUE 00Z 09-FEB   6.9     3.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     564     549    
TUE 06Z 09-FEB   6.4     3.5       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     564     549    
TUE 12Z 09-FEB   6.7     5.7       8    0.01    0.00    0.00     563     548    
TUE 18Z 09-FEB  11.4     8.5       0    0.01    0.00    0.00     566     550    
WED 00Z 10-FEB   7.5     5.9       7    0.03    0.00    0.03     568     550    
WED 06Z 10-FEB   4.9     3.2       4    0.02    0.00    0.02     568     550    
WED 12Z 10-FEB   4.2     3.7      12    0.06    0.00    0.06     567     551    
WED 18Z 10-FEB   6.7     6.1       4    0.21    0.00    0.21     568     552    
THU 00Z 11-FEB   7.4     6.6       0    0.03    0.00    0.03     568     552    
THU 06Z 11-FEB   7.8     7.3       3    0.01    0.00    0.01     569     555    
THU 12Z 11-FEB  10.9    10.7     126    0.01    0.00    0.01     568     556    
THU 18Z 11-FEB  14.7    14.4     357    0.57    0.39    0.17     567     559    
FRI 00Z 12-FEB  15.5    15.4     215    0.36    0.19    0.17     566     559    
FRI 06Z 12-FEB   8.3     8.2      84    0.27    0.10    0.16     564     555    
FRI 12Z 12-FEB   4.9     4.5      51    0.44    0.27    0.17     564     553    
FRI 18Z 12-FEB   4.6     2.2       5    0.17    0.03    0.14     564     553    
SAT 00Z 13-FEB   3.0    -1.0       0    0.02    0.00    0.02     563     552 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro at 168 has rediscovered cold in the eastern Plains which was completely absent at 0z.   I think it is still biased in holding this cold back...Who know, I learned long ago not to discount it.  

[Carvers Gap]

Light mix is showing up next Saturday over the Plateau at 168.

[Carvers Gap]

Major change at 174 as the 12z Euro pushes the front through.  Much colder run at this time frame.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is nearly 30 degrees colder over middle TN next weekend.

[Carvers Gap]

Re: 12z Euro.

Anyway, fairly substantial changes in temps beginning Wednesday and really deviates from its 0z run by Fri/Sat next week.  Tells me the Euro "might" be playing catchup.  The run-to-run temp changes (later in the run) over the East are more drastic than what I posted above.  About it.   Good luck to everyone tonight.  Will give the ensemble a look later and see if the EPS has any changes for midweek.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

45 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

I am not real familiar with Ukie,  Orientation is quite different here at 140ish.  Does anyone have beyond that hour?

12z UKMET from hr 114 - 168:

[Carvers Gap]

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run.  Not used to seeing it so robust.  Some of you might be wondering about maps.  It is not a tease.  Been out of memory for about two years.  Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space!  LOL...kidding, not kidding.  CG2 might be in my future.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run.  Not used to seeing it so robust.  Some of you might be wondering about maps.  It is not a tease.  Been out of memory for about two years.  Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space!  LOL...kidding, not kidding.  CG2 might be in my future.

I would post it, but weathermodels doesn't have a lot for the GEPS. It's not even in their regular model "selection" and you have to go to model labs and click through it frame by frame, without a ton of panels. 

[jaxjagman]

Lots of resemblence in East Asia,IMHO.You have a Upper Level low in the NE with a trough coming in the NW,then you have ridging in the south

[CG2]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I would post it, but weathermodels doesn't have a lot for the GEPS. It's not even in their regular model "selection" and you have to go to model labs and click through it frame by frame, without a ton of panels. 

40 MB stronger, my friend.  Will post some more later.  LOL!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, CG2 said:

40 MB stronger, my friend.  Will post some more later.  LOL!!!!

Welcome aboard...pretty average poster at best(and maybe a tad on the ugly side), but we will take you since you have more memory.