February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

Yep.  12z GFS looks like it may double down on its 6z run...out to 108.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like west and middle TN are going to get hammered again on this run.  As of 132, places in middle TN have 1" of ice accumulation on the 12z run of the GFS.  Wow.

[Carvers Gap]

The axis for ice has pressed about 50-100mi southeast(depending on location) on this run which surprises me as I though the initial onset was a bit warmer on the souther fringe of this.  Massive hit for some areas.  There are areas along the KY/TN border with 1.5+" of ice accumulation.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The axis for ice has pressed about 50-100mi southeast(depending on location) on this run which surprises me as I though the initial onset was a bit warmer on the souther fringe of this.  Massive hit for some areas.  There are areas along the KY/TN border with 1.5+" of ice accumulation.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just glancing at the boundary, looks like the GFS has pressed it steadily southeastward since 0z.  If trends hold from previous systems...it will keep pressing SE for a few more runs, then lift it back northwest, and then back SE a hair....been going on all winter.  

[Bigbald]

For TRI folks, it looks like there's less backside/enhancement at 156 hrs when compared to 6z, when the cold front punches through.  But at that far out its devil in the details anyways and bound to change.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC now has a significant winter storm in middle and west TN at 126

[Bigbald]

This maybe a scenario where I am happy to live vicariously through you middle/west Tennessee folks ha. Wow at that ice

[Carvers Gap]

Give me no part of the GFS at 246 - none at all.   Want no part of that.

[Carvers Gap]

The Tropical Tidbits 12z GFS 258 snow accumulation map is full Euro from the other day...obviously it includes ice.  But it is pretty hilarious.  Nearly the entire state is green!   Never seen anything like it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The front finally makes it to the plateau on the CMC at hr 240, lol. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like it will be another fugly ice map for middle and western TN though, even into places like Louisiana. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC reloads the ice pattern again for middle and west TN late in the run.  My guess(and it is only that) is that modeling is underestimating the extend of the cold front.  My gut says that cold slides along the surface for 100-150 miles further than what is shown there - if that model is even right.  I can't decide right now if I want any part of that!!!!!

[Bigbald]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Give me no part of the GFS at 246 - none at all.   Want no part of that.

Tough thing is, it's been my experience that models scour residual cold artic too fast, so maybe it's worse than depicted at that hour given that bitterly cold air entrenched is harder to rid.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Tough thing is, it's been my experience that models scour residual cold artic too fast, so maybe it's worse than depicted at that hour given that bitterly cold air entrenched is harder to rid.

Just a nasty, nasty set-up.

[Mrwolf1972]

Holly ice storm on 16th on gfs

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And the CMC looked to me like it was just going to have another wave ride that front after hr 240. 

 

[Coach B]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The front finally makes it to the plateau on the CMC at hr 240, lol. 

 

Cold all the way to Tampico! 

[Carvers Gap]

If the 12z Euro comes on board, likely time for a thread.  This event literally lasts for a week on the GFS.  So, looks like modeling has the cold again.  As BNA notes, really tough to know where that boundary goes.  Might even wait until 0z (to make a thread) to see if modeling continues to hone-in on this.  But this is thread worthy if ever there was one - if it holds.

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Holly ice storm on 16th on gfs

Need a "wow" emoji.   Not a "good wow", but just "wow."  That is craziness.  Might be the only time I am glad to be inside of the little white circle in NE TN.  Quite literally, I would be the only place in TN without ice...ya'll come on over if it gets bad!!!!

[BNAwx]

To be on the safe side, I’ll prolly go today to make sure I’ve got gas for the generator...

[Holston_River_Rambler]

CMC ice accums:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just realized I hadn't even looked at the mid range overnight UKMET:

 

the 12z run is still out to only about hr 40 or so on F5

[PowellVolz]

This is shaping up to be very similar to the last couple of February’s except it’s winter precip falling.


.

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS?  There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada!  The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward).  The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this.   The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE.  Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Carvers Gap

 

 

No worries, just killing time till lunch and the Euro right now, lol. 

[Olhausen]

5 hours ago, Looking to the skies said:

Those same signals were here on the Gulf coast  less than 36 hours ago. That is how far the cold has been shoved back and warmth pushed up per models thinking. 
 
How many times will this continue? Models sgnal an Arctic outbreak then poof it is magically gone or shoved so far back north it should be counted as their Normal winters

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap

 

 

No worries, just killing time till lunch and the Euro right now, lol. 

That is awesome and thanks.   What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest.  The highs migrate to that cold.  What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high.  It is non-stop on that run.  I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy.  Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

Ditto that.

[weathertree4u]

3 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

I live in same area. The Woodlands still show the scars of the last really bad one we had in 1994