February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

To say this would not be catastrophic and dangerous with that much ice and cold temps to me is an understatement.

Will depend on precip amounts.  The orientation of that axis and slow movement of the front could be a problem.  But definitely don't want to lose power and then have record cold.  The CMC does not push as much cold eastward FWIW.  Stalls the boundary which is why it is bad in terms of zr.

[Wurbus]

Me waiting on the ice accumulation map to load on pivotal for CMC

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC only takes 150 hours to push the cold boundary across the entire state.  That is a wide open window for all kinds of winter weather.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Me waiting on the ice accumulation map to load on pivotal for CMC

Edit:  .3-.4" ice accums through 153 for portions of west and middle TN.

[Carvers Gap]

.7" ice accumulations in portions of eastern Kentucky through 153.

[Carvers Gap]

And that is before the big stuff hits....

[tnweathernut]

17 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

To say this would not be catastrophic and dangerous with that much ice and cold temps to me is an understatement.

Best thing you can do is hope for sleet...........  zr is crippling at those temperatures.

[Wurbus]

Nice color coded chart of East/Middle/West TN

[Kentucky]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

.7" ice accumulations in portions of eastern Kentucky through 153.

[Wurbus]

Icepocalypse. Nearly the whole state gets involved over the run!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Kentucky said:

It gets worse...LOL.  Wurbus just turned out the lights on most of the forum.

[Wurbus]

Single digit and teens for temps as well afterward. That ice won't be melting anytime soon.

[Wurbus]

Luckily, we still have a ways to go and watching each model run feels like the ups and downs of a basketball game. Euro had all the ice in south Georgia and SC on last night's run, so we will see where it goes on this upcoming run.

[Kentucky]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It gets worse...LOL.  Wurbus just turned out the lights on most of the forum.

 

6 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Icepocalypse. Nearly the whole state gets involved over the run!

 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Icepocalypse. Nearly the whole state gets involved over the run!

That is crazy, man.  I am just looking at who doesn't have ice so I can show up unannounced like Cousin Eddie.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS not any better over middle TN.  Looks like the 12z suite really wants to stall the boundary right at the Plateau or Apps - take your pick.  Looks like modeling is wanting to come out of phase 7 on the MJO into the COD with phase 8 as a background state.  Certainly looks like what we are seeing on modeling right now.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em. 

Holston has to be thinking right now...might be time to schedule a trip to Kingsport and the EB.  

[Wurbus]

Lots of pick and purple on the GEFS members as well toward the end of next week, so definitely a lot of support for a lot of ice for someone in the forum area.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Holston has to be thinking right now...might be time to schedule a trip to Kingsport and the EB.  

Yeah for sure. Although I remember a few ice storms right on the Holston River in west Kingsport.  I’m hugging the 0z para Euro right now (posted on the SE forum in the mid - long term disco) 

[kvskelton]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is crazy, man.  I am just looking at who doesn't have ice so I can show up unannounced like Cousin Eddie.  

I don't know, Carver's; looking at that map we may be in he best spot possible!  Is that area of less zr from Johnson City to near Wytheville caused by the warm air taking longer to be scoured out after being trapped by the front or are the Apps wringing out moisture? Or the TEC dome?  Oh and be sure to get yourself something REAL nice! 

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

People better stock up on beer and cigs, cause the police ain’t bringing em. 

Holston, in case you didn't hear that full story, that was an actual announcement made on the radio (WQUT) several times during the Blizzard of 93! I'm honored that Stovepipe keeps it alive in his signature! 

[1234snow]

12z GFES pretty much has 40+ hours of frozen precip for the whole area. Continuously.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

12z GFES pretty much has 40+ hours of frozen precip for the whole area. Continuously.

It is craziness.  Was just looking at it myself.  

[Carvers Gap]

Switching back to this thread for the late week look from the Euro....

[Wurbus]

If the upcoming potential ice storm does happen, it reminds me a lot of the storm we had back in Feb 2015, at least IMBY. We had ice and snow, followed by very cold weather and it hung around for awhile. Now the one being modeled on the CMC is much worse. Also, I had an ice, wolverine claw form over several days next to my house back then.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro seems to be beginning the overrunning event on Wednesday.  It has a light mix along the KY/TN border where it had none at 0z.  That is quite a different look.

[Carvers Gap]

At 144(132 this run...144 0z run), the Euro has again lost a hp over the Plains which is allowing for a more robust southerly flow.

[Carvers Gap]

MASSIVLEY different run on the 12z Euro...doesn't fit with its other runs nor the rest of the 12z suite.  Completely loses the high over the nation's mid-section later next week...poof.  We will see if he ensemble supports that.....

[Carvers Gap]

Take a look at this at 174.  The big high has just vanished.  So, this run is either going to score a massive coup or be tossed as an outlier.  I know better than to disagree with the Euro when it makes big changes.  However, that is just a massive massive break in continuity.  We will see if other models follow suit during the next few runs.   New is on the left.

[PowellVolz]

MASSIVLEY different run on the 12z Euro...doesn't fit with its other runs nor the rest of the 12z suite.  Completely loses the high over the nation's mid-section later next week...poof.  We will see if he ensemble supports that.....

So I’m assuming it’s much warmer later next week?


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