February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Daniel Boone]

Winter of 76-77 was similar as far as cold(actually colder January) and being out of School but, although snow was on North facing and shady areas from early Dec. To Mid Feb.. the total was much less with just over 30". The River in Pennington gap froze solid and was snow covered .

[PowellVolz]

Icon through next week. Looks a lot like the Euro a few days ago.

 

 

 

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[dwagner88]

49 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

Don't know how reliable they are, haven't followed TWC much ....?

In this pattern, nothing is reliable at that range. 

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Icon through next week. Looks a lot like the Euro a few days ago.

 

 

 

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Just maybe the models are figuring out where the frozen precip will be.  Now how much and what type is the next thing to figure out. 

[PowellVolz]

FYI... the 18z Para-GFS didn’t run again

 

 

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[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS is setting up a multi-day overrunning event.  Nearly impossible to know the details at this range, but not a bad look.  

[Carvers Gap]

Yep,   0z GFS has a significant overrunning event later next week.  

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z GFS is setting up a multi-day overrunning event.  Nearly impossible to know the details at this range, but not a bad look.  

Looks like the orientation of the icon no?

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Bigbald said:

Looks like the orientation of the icon no?

Quite similar and quite similar to the para gfs yesterday.  

[Carvers Gap]

0z is depicting multiple waves of wintery precip(the kitchen sink if you will) later next week.  Impressive look.

[Carvers Gap]

Like someone turned a firehose loose on an Arctic boundary.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS has some foot totals on the Plateau from multiple events through 222.  Pretty much the entire forum area has something.  Eastern half gets hammered.  We will see if that holds, but the signal for an overrunning event is still apparent on both the 0z GFS and ICON.

[BNAwx]

There’s gonna be lots of ups and downs over the next week.  It’s all gonna depend on where the arctic boundary sets up shop.  Fun times ahead.

[Carvers Gap]

Obvious at this point that modeling is struggling to find the Arctic boundary and also the strength of the cold.  Still, nice look.  BNA got me with the ninja!  LOL edit.

[Carvers Gap]

TRI has 16" with the Kuchera/WxBell through 252.

[Carvers Gap]

TYS also has 16" through 252.  

[TellicoWx]

Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South

[Jeff H]

Check out that high pressure on the cmc. 

[BNAwx]

My favorite look is an arctic boundary with that WSW orientation...as long as it’s far enough south to allow a deeper penetration of an arctic air mass.  

[TellicoWx]

True Siberian air is very shallow..if modeling is even remotely close, it's either gonna back right against the plateau or the Apps. There's very few instances where I can remember NWS office raising a red flag like CPC did a week in advance.

[Bigbald]

It's amazing the jump that occurred from 12-18z to 0z on most of the models now honing in on the artic boundary, even if alot of the details and precise placement will still vary. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South

Yeah, total mess.  Fill in those blank areas in the sub-forum with either sleet or heavy snow.  

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South

Close to an 1.00",ice,this is Jackson,MS

 

FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: HKS    LAT=  32.33 LON=  -90.22 ELE=   341

                                            00Z FEB05   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 00Z 05-FEB  15.3     9.7    1009      85      55             567     559    
FRI 06Z 05-FEB   8.5     6.5    1013      78      56    0.20     564     553    
FRI 12Z 05-FEB   2.9     4.5    1016      84      50    0.00     561     548    
FRI 18Z 05-FEB  10.3     4.1    1018      46      72    0.00     560     546    
SAT 00Z 06-FEB   6.5     3.1    1015      65      79    0.00     561     548    
SAT 06Z 06-FEB   4.9     2.8    1017      78      99    0.00     562     548    
SAT 12Z 06-FEB   6.0     2.4    1016      79      98    0.00     561     548    
SAT 18Z 06-FEB   7.2     4.5    1015      83      94    0.03     560     548    
SUN 00Z 07-FEB   7.1     5.7    1011      90      95    0.04     557     548    
SUN 06Z 07-FEB   7.3     1.6    1015      94       3    0.03     559     547    
SUN 12Z 07-FEB   5.3     4.0    1018      89       7    0.00     564     549    
SUN 18Z 07-FEB   9.2     6.6    1020      71      19    0.00     568     551    
MON 00Z 08-FEB   7.0     7.5    1020      82      17    0.00     570     553    
MON 06Z 08-FEB   3.6     8.9    1022      94      12    0.00     571     554    
MON 12Z 08-FEB   2.4     8.8    1021      96      10    0.00     571     553    
MON 18Z 08-FEB  13.5     9.2    1021      57      34    0.00     573     555    
TUE 00Z 09-FEB  10.4    10.8    1017      77      48    0.00     573     558    
TUE 06Z 09-FEB  10.5    10.5    1019      89      12    0.00     575     559    
TUE 12Z 09-FEB  11.4     8.2    1017      93      17    0.00     574     559    
TUE 18Z 09-FEB  16.3     9.7    1018      82      45    0.00     575     560    
WED 00Z 10-FEB  13.1    10.0    1015      95      36    0.02     574     561    
WED 06Z 10-FEB  12.5    10.7    1015      97      21    0.00     574     562    
WED 12Z 10-FEB  14.0    11.3    1014      99      31    0.00     573     562    
WED 18Z 10-FEB  17.9    11.0    1015      93      30    0.02     574     561    
THU 00Z 11-FEB  14.0    10.7    1015      93      36    0.01     573     561    
THU 06Z 11-FEB   6.4    10.8    1018      90      88    0.01     573     559    
THU 12Z 11-FEB   2.7     9.6    1018      93      94    0.12     571     556    
THU 18Z 11-FEB   3.1     8.7    1020      90      90    0.02     572     555    
FRI 00Z 12-FEB  -0.6     9.7    1019      92      98    0.03     570     555    
FRI 06Z 12-FEB  -3.3     5.5    1022      95      99    0.56     569     552    
FRI 12Z 12-FEB  -7.4     5.8    1024      93      63    0.23     566     548    
FRI 18Z 12-FEB  -6.0     2.9    1025      92      44    0.00     565     546    
SAT 00Z 13-FEB  -6.4     1.5    1024      94      99    0.15     561     542    
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -9.4     1.5    1025      96      50    0.01     562     543    
SAT 12Z 13-FEB -12.3     0.8    1025      96      31    0.00     562     543    
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -7.7    -2.9    1027      94      56    0.00     564     543    
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -7.8    -2.3    1027      95      62    0.00     564     543    
SUN 06Z 14-FEB -10.3    -2.6    1029      95      11    0.00     565     543    
SUN 12Z 14-FEB -12.3    -2.5    1030      94       9    0.00     563     540    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -4.8    -2.7    1032      86      28    0.00     564     539    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -7.6    -3.6    1032      93      58    0.00     564     539    
MON 06Z 15-FEB -12.3    -6.7    1036      94       6    0.00     564     537    
MON 12Z 15-FEB -13.8    -6.7    1037      94       3    0.00     564     536    
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -2.2    -4.9    1038      85      10    0.00     568     539    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -4.6    -3.6    1036      95      13    0.00     570     542    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -7.7    -1.9    1037      95       7    0.00     572     544    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  -8.0    -2.0    1037      93       6    0.00     571     543    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB   1.4    -1.6    1037      94      21    0.00     573     544   

 

[Carvers Gap]

Don't assume the western areas of the forum are left out of the frozen fun...mostly sleet and zr in addition to the amounts show.  Tellico has already highlighted the ZR threat.

[Matthew70]

I saw where someone said this starts Wednesday if we really look at it.  Am I missing something?

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

There’s gonna be lots of ups and downs over the next week.  It’s all gonna depend on where the arctic boundary sets up shop.  Fun times ahead.

Yep, great post and worth a read by everyone.  

[TellicoWx]

Wish I could find the surface analysis for this...but a similar situation where you had a 1050 high move from the Rockies east, with a stalled frontal boundary right along the Apps with multiple waves..Jan 29 - Feb 1, 1951.

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Wish I could find the surface analysis for this...but a similar situation where you had a 1050 high move from the Rockies east, with a stalled frontal boundary right along the Apps with multiple waves..Jan 29 - Feb 1, 1951.

I posted this the other day

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm#:~:text=The worst ice storm in,inches of ice and snow.

 

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I posted this the other day

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm#:~:text=The worst ice storm in,inches of ice and snow.

 

Wow.  Yikes!  I bet they were ready for spring after that mess.  

[Carvers Gap]

0z GEFS snow totals are impressive for the eastern half of the state.  Chattanooga has a roughly 4-5" snow mean, TYS is 6-8", TRI is 8-10", Plateau is roughly 7-8", Nashville is 3-4", Memphis is almost 3", northern sections of the GOM states are 1-3", Arkansas is 3-4",  and southern KY is 3.5 -8."   That is through 324.