February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Stovepipe]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Take a look at the 500 anomaly at 222 on Tropical Tidbits.  

[PowellVolz]

Holy smokes


.

[Carvers Gap]

Cold air is just pouring over the pole on the 18z GFS.

[jaxjagman]

Ice storm

[Stovepipe]

[John1122]

Models struggle with how far eastward cold makes it in setups like the GFS is snowing. I'd probably shift the sleet and zr areas southeastward by a good bit.

[John1122]

More impressive than those lows would be the highs under 5 so widespread.  That is rare to see any time of year, very rare for Mid February. 

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, John1122 said:

More impressive than those lows would be the highs under 5 so widespread.  That is rare to see any time of year, very rare for Mid February. 

Nashville's all time record low on record was -17 in 1985,figured it would have been much earlier,but this was in a moderate NINA

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Nashville's all time record low on record was -17 in 1985,figured it would have been much earlier,but this was in a moderate NINA

I was looking at notable Mid Tenn weather and found quite a few -15 or below all time records in February. Some of those places may have been colder in 1985 but lost reporting stations. Even more record breaking winter events in the mid-state happened in February.

[snowmaker]

Yep in 1985 I remember Clarksville recorded a -17 without wind chill. That was a great year and plenty of snow and super cold.

[TellicoWx]

1985 was when the Tellico River froze solid...have old family albums with pics of cars/trucks driving up the middle of the river on the ice. Only time I have ever known the water to completely freeze and stop flowing at the Bald River Falls.

[McMinnWx]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

1985 was when the Tellico River froze solid...have old family albums with pics of cars/trucks driving up the middle of the river on the ice. Only time I have ever known the water to completely freeze and stop flowing at the Bald River Falls.

Dad lives up on the Skyway. He has got some pictures of this event. 

[Kasper]

I remember this well as a 12 year old, we had major ice as well, probably the worst ice storm I’ve ever seen

[Wintersnow888]

AccuWeather all of a sudden changed the forecast for my area to 1-3 inches for Saturday night, after having a dusting all week. Afraid to hope......

[Stovepipe]

22 minutes ago, Kasper said:

I remember this well as a 12 year old, we had major ice as well, probably the worst ice storm I’ve ever seen

Your avatar cracks me up every time I see you post.  Thanks.

[jaxjagman]

41 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

1985 was when the Tellico River froze solid...have old family albums with pics of cars/trucks driving up the middle of the river on the ice. Only time I have ever known the water to completely freeze and stop flowing at the Bald River Falls.

Think it was Jan 21 Nashville hit -17 and the night before Jan 20 it hit -16 ,must have been some cold spell

[Kasper]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

Your avatar cracks me up every time I see you post.  Thanks.

Hahaha, You serious Clarke?

[Kasper]

10 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

AccuWeather all of a sudden changed the forecast for my area to 1-3 inches for Saturday night, after having a dusting all week. Afraid to hope......

I just looked they changed mine to 3-6 inches...... Lock it and give me a pack of smokes! 

[Kasper]

14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Your avatar cracks me up every time I see you post.  Thanks.

Oh and BTW I love seeing your posts, I can’t wait to see the latest gif or Meme

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Think it was Jan 21 Nashville hit -17 and the night before Jan 20 it hit -16 ,must have been some cold spell

Knoxville set an all time record of -24. 

[BNAwx]

I lived in Cookeville at the time and I believe we hit either -23 or -24.  Our pipes had frozen up and my mom went under the house with a hair dryer in an attempt to thaw them out.  Well, it was so cold that the extension cord froze and just crumbled up.

Good times..

[AMZ8990]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is bringing the hammer to west TN with storm #2.

Lots of energy flying around the lower 48 that run.  Pretty cool to see so many different systems modeled to come near or threw the forum.  Gotta love all that potential!

[TellicoWx]

Posted this in wrong thread...don't remember CPC posting a heavy snow threat 8 days in advance before

 

A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with an increasing chance that a wave of low pressure develops along the front by Feb 12. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. A negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. along with subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic supports a continued risk of winter weather across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The week-2 analog tools (Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means) imply this outcome with elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation for these areas. Based on these factors, a likely outbreak of Arctic Air, and 24-hour precipitation amounts of a 0.25 inch or more, liquid equivalent, from the ensemble means at varying daily intervals, a slight risk of heavy snow (2 to 4 inches, or greater) is posted for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic.

[Daniel Boone]

With the predicted 500 MB features progged, conditions will be ripe for a major Winter Storm.

[John1122]

There's nothing better than snow followed by Arctic air.  Throw back to my childhood there. We used to stay cold and snowy for days on end.  I remember one 2 week period  in January in the late 70s where it snowed at least some every day or two. 

[BNAwx]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There's nothing better than snow followed by Arctic air.  Throw back to my childhood there. We used to stay cold and snowy for days on end.  I remember one 2 week period  in January in the late 70s where it snowed at least some every day or two. 

Those were the days.  I remember in 77-78 it would snow and we’d go back to school for a couple days and then it would snow again and we’d be out another week or so.   I’d love to have another winter like that again someday.

[snowmaker]

8 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

Those were the days.  I remember in 77-78 it would snow and we’d go back to school for a couple days and then it would snow again and we’d be out another week or so.   I’d love to have another winter like that again someday.

January of 77 we went on Christmas Break on the 19th of december and we headed back to school the morning of the 4th of January only to be turned around before arriving. We didn't go the entire month of January. That was a great winter in Montgomery County.

[Daniel Boone]

77-78 my all time favorite. 72 inches ! The ground was covered from early December until the end of February. I remember being out of school over a month, going back 1 day the end of January only to be out another 3 weeks !

[Wintersnow888]

Ok so now TWC site is calling for 3-5 inches for my area around Monterey on Thursday 11th......and of course NWS has nothing......

[Wintersnow888]

Don't know how reliable they are, haven't followed TWC much ....?