February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[PowellVolz]

Hr 72-96 all winter long has had major changes occur at 500...this seems par for the course so far. Ride the ensembles until within hr 48. 

Seems like the last couple of years the Euro has been better 7-10 days out than 3-5 days out.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday

I nominate @Stovepipe with the caveat that he has to start it with an epic photoshop involving Johnny Cash, the Doof Warrior from Mad Max, and the birthday cake dog. On second thought that one may need to be saved for later, lol. 

[TellicoWx]

On side note...got light sleet falling here now

[tnweathernut]

Out to 30, the energy coming at us is much stronger on the GFS in Idaho vs. the Euro.  Yes, Idaho.  This is the piece of energy that is set to make it to northeast TN in 42 hours.  This thing is SCOOTING!  I will say the energy is a tad more prominent than on the 0z Euro.  Still doesn't look anything like the American modeling suite.

[tnweathernut]

Out to 48, it's TRYING to be better at 500.  Energy trying to sharpen a bit in north Texas and western Oklahoma

 

[tnweathernut]

Surface responds between 54 and 60, with precip breaking out across Arkansas in the form of rain and snow north of there. Also much more precip in the deep south.  This is definitely going to be more like the GFS

[tnweathernut]

Don't think this will be anything like the GFS suite, but it's a big step toward it.

Just goes to show somewhere in the middle won't work for most.  Gets going a little later it looks.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[tnweathernut]

Mostly light rains across Tennessee, but changes to snow across much of east Tennessee.  I don't think the snow maps will be pretty, but this is moving toward something for someone in TN.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Thanks, PBP's are not near as useful when you can simply throw a GIF.  I'm just a relic of the past I suppose.  lol

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Thanks, PBP's are not near as useful when you can simply throw a GIF.  I'm just a relic of the past I suppose.  lol

Oh noooo PBP's are my fav. I just threw that up for reference 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I suck at them though. Almost always a given if I anticipate X change in a model, it will go the other way. 

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

That’s a big change from sunny and 55 on Sunday.  Lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For the connoisseur of snow maps, I just saw the weatherbell maps on southernwx and they look better than my weathermodels map. If you're into that sort of thing, like, me, lol. 

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I suck at them though. Almost always a given if I anticipate X change in a model, it will go the other way. 

Same here..also goes for posting trends on ensembles for me...usually goes exactly opposite on the next run after I post it lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The supposedly new version of the Ukie. I can't really tell if it is much different from what I posted earlier:

[tnweathernut]

Will try to show you what I was looking at. It’s closer than I thought when watching it in real time...... at 500. First the GFS at 30, 54, and 66.




The vort looks a little more pronounced than on the Euro. Also, you can see the speed of this rascal. By 66 it’s in a great spot for producing precip across TN and the surface shows that as a nice little snow.

Now, the Euro at the same times.





Very similar placements wrt timing. Maybe a touch sharper on the American modeling which likely accounts for more snow shown.

Threat looks legit, congrats to the GFSv16, which has had this for a couple of days now.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Twitter convo about the storm re: initialization error and RAOB network:

 

[Carvers Gap]

NA view 500 sort map at 144 (animate it) is like a conveyor on the Euro.  No idea if it goes to the para-gfs multi-day over-running event, but the set-up is almost there.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Twitter convo about the storm re: initialization error and RAOB network:

 

So, is the 12z GFS wrong or is it wrong(in a good way) - meaning that storm should did a bit more and trend well west of even the current modeling?

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Twitter convo about the storm re: initialization error and RAOB network:

 

What does this mean?  The GFS is wrong?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

What does this mean?  The GFS is wrong?

I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol

I think there has been something wrong with modeling for about 48 hours....have seemed way, way to benign given then pattern.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol

That's how I take it too.  The thing is, at our latitude................ really............. the GFS and GFSv16 is about perfect.  Nice vort pass, goes negative in a perfect place, and is moisture laden.  If it digs more, the storm is likely bigger, but warm air advection likely makes this a Kentucky to Virginia snow storm vs a Tennessee Valley snow storm.

[John1122]

Possible reason for the shift to Tennessee looking better. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I don't know.  The SLP pops off Charleston, SC.  It has plenty of room to correct northwest.  Would likely mean the entire storm spins up and we could have a very potent inland runner.  Confluence would be earlier which could really force that thing to go neg tilt.   tnweathernut is far better with that stuff than I!   

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And there’s still energy in the SW that’s gonna run that boundary lol 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has some eerily similar characteristics to the 12z para-gfs multi-day overrunning event.

[BNAwx]

Would love to see some snow on snow in the parts.  Hasn’t happened in quite a while...

[Carvers Gap]

When we consider that the Euro had nothing for several runs....that is a really big jump.