February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

To balance out the effort, the 12z CMC is basically the opposite of US modeling right now.  The 12z GFS, though, is about to bring the final hammer with the cold.

[Matthew70]

I’m totally lost.  Sunday it’s supposed to be 55 and sunny here in Mid TN the forecast says.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Para-GFS already has a foot over middle TN at 200 with the event still ongoing.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

I’m totally lost.  Sunday it’s supposed to be 55 and sunny here in Mid TN the forecast says.

12z US modeling has just changed.  We will see if they get support from other modeling....Forecasters will be very conservative until these runs get support.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z regular GFS is bringing temps to -16 to -17F along the TN/KY border in middle TN late next weekend.  Obviously, that is WAY out there but if we get snow pack and the cold lurking in the eastern Plains, that is possible.  

[Carvers Gap]

So now we wait to see if US modeling has support.  The para-GFS looks like it is cooking up yet another winter storm just inside of d10.  It may be toying with a Euro-lite version from the other day.  The 12z CMC is much lighter with its qpf.  So there are two total plausible runs.  One shows how to whiff and one shows how to score.  I do like that the GFS seems to have had the hotter hand of late - especially the para.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z para-GFS is just going nuts.  Frame that run.  Crazy.  Not saying that verifies...but wild, wild multi-day over-running event.  Overall accumulation map is pretty will as well...think it doesn't go past 240 or it would be more due to the storm just after 240.

[Matthew70]

Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the UKMET is coming north a bit for the Sunday system (the one that goes out to hr 144 on pivotal). 

0z on the left and 12z on the right:

 

 

The other one I post won't be finished running for a bit, but I will post that one too later, just to see if the newer UKMET is different.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol

You may still get to yet!  LOL.  I am not ruling out any scenario.  Mine need washing as well.  Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again.

[Matthew70]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

You may still get to yet!  LOL.  I am not ruling out any scenario.  Mine need washing as well.  Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again.

Trust me I would rather them be covered in snow!

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol

If the para is even half right, there will be PLENTY of car washing coming up the next 2-3 weeks.

[Matthew70]

Be nice if the King Euro jumped on board

[tnweathernut]

15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Be nice if the King Euro jumped on board

Without a doubt!  How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes?  It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-(

 

[Vol4Life]

Does anyone have the accumulation map for Para-GFS?  I’m having a hard time getting it to load.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Does anyone have the accumulation map for Para-GFS?  I’m having a hard time getting it to load.

You want the whole run, or a specific time frame?

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

You want the whole run, or a specific time frame?

Request for the entire run here.  Pivotal goes to 240...can you get more?

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Without a doubt!  How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes?  It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-(

Thanks for asking.  Most in Nashville have recovered.  Mt. Juliet is mostly recovered.  Cookeville will be awhile for most.  My brothers house is done.  A few of his neighbors houses are built but not in theirs yet. 

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

You want the whole run, or a specific time frame?

If you have the whole run, that would be great!  Thanks Holston! I’ve never really paid attention to the Para until the last several days.

[Matthew70]

I’m still in shock that 55 and sunny on Sunday could be opposite so quickly.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Carvers Gap all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all:

[BNAwx]

Is Para Spanish for DGEX?

[PowellVolz]

[mention=769]Carvers Gap[/mention] all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all:

EURO a couple of days ago




.

[tnweathernut]

I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today.







.

[Wurbus]

Most GEFS Members are on board with something as well.

[BNAwx]

4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today.







.

That’s pretty amazing actually.   You don’t see that much consensus very often..even if it’s just the ensembles of 1 global model.

[TellicoWx]

Hr 72-96 all winter long has had major changes occur at 500...this seems par for the course so far. Ride the ensembles until within hr 48. 

[tnweathernut]

Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday.  Even if it ends up a miss................  the signal is there and growing stronger.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro just started up on TrueWeather

[tnweathernut]

12z Euro has initialized.  We won't have to wait long to see if it's moved in a positive direction.  lol