February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it. 

What's the EPS members look like Holstons? Don't have access...will kinda tell if GEFS is out to lunch.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The energy depiction looks similar and (I think?) if the energy verifies a tad stronger and digs just a bit, the Euro would look more like the GFS:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

What's the EPS members look like Holstons?

I should have those in about an hour or so and will post when they come in. 

[fountainguy97]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it. 

Yeah 06z euro trended NW “only” by 200miles haha. IMO gfs family is on top of it. It nailed the heavy snow across NC while euro and others didn’t find it until a day or two out.

[Carvers Gap]

So, the 0z Euro is now getting to UKMET levels over Iowa now in terms of cold....not once but twice. -20s on M/T and again on F/S.  One of the lows with the second round of cold is -25.9F.

[Carvers Gap]

Good trends on the 6z GFS regarding the Feb13 time frame as well...really good trends if you live along the Southern border of TN or northern edges of the GOM states.

[Carvers Gap]

There are three minor/moderate events for various areas of the forum area on the 6z GFS...Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC has light snow along a frontal passage around Tuesday, but whiffs on Sunday and is suppressed with the Friday system.  We will find out if the GFS has "rediscovered" the old pattern or is on a wild tangent.   Normally, I would discount that business, but as Fountain notes...it has held its own this winter against the Euro.  Really would like the CMC to start trending towards something Sunday.   

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@TellicoWx

Here are the 6z EPS members through hour 84

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

As usual, I like to play "Guess the NAM run with the SREF." Looks like the 12z NAM may be closer to the GFS. 

 

[jaxjagman]

Me like this

[Wurbus]

17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As usual, I like to play "Guess the NAM run with the SREF." Looks like the 12z NAM may be closer to the GFS. 

 

I was just looking at the SREF Plumes as well. Knoxville went from 1 member showing snow to 5 showing an inch or more.

[fountainguy97]

12z nam more amped and consolidated. Expect a decent NW shift incoming.

Also looks very similar to the GFS 06z

[fountainguy97]

[Wurbus]

 

Nam'd

[Wurbus]

RGEM says what weekend storm?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the RGEM did get a little closer with the energy. Not saying it will work out this time, but the RGEM didn't do so hot with the overrunning, WAA precip last time. It does seem to do better with its depictions of energy though, so who knows.

It is gradually coming north (last 4 runs):

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is now on board.

[Carvers Gap]

Beginning to look like the Para-GFS has scored the short range coup with this Sunday system.  Now admittedly, most models had this a few days ago, and then lost it.  However, the para has held steadfast - when it has run.

[Carvers Gap]

Somebody post the para-gfs map.  It is a good one - not great but good.

[Carvers Gap]

The regular 12z GFS has a light wintry mix over western portions of the forum area Tuesday-Wednesday.  Para hammers middle TN w the Sunday system - E TN does pretty decently as well.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the Para will join its older sibling in modeling more wintery weather with yet a second system, the west TN system mentioned above for Wednesday(para may be a hair slower).

[Carvers Gap]

I like the trends so far at 12z on US models.  Rain changing to snow showers on Friday.  Potential winter storm Sunday.  Another system Wednesday.  Let's see if we can get US modeling some support.  You all can post the maps.  

[Wurbus]

Para-GFS

 

GFS

[Carvers Gap]

Nope, not done.  The regular GFS now has a major winter storm on Friday for middle and western areas.  

[Carvers Gap]

Para and GFS are having a "hold my beer" dueling set of runs.  The Para has what appears to be the beginning of an overrunning event also for next Fri but further east and a bit south.

[Wurbus]

Looks like CMC precip shield is a bit more north compared to 00z, but the moisture still doesn't reach the TN valley. Fascinating to see these 2 different camps right now on each run. I think Carvers mentioned a few days ago that the phasing was just hours apart and I think that is what we are seeing with these model runs.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Wurbus said:

Looks like CMC precip shield is a bit more north compared to 00z, but the moisture still doesn't reach the TN valley. Fascinating to see these 2 different camps right now on each run. I think Carvers mentioned a few days ago that the phasing was just hours apart and I think that is what we are seeing with these model runs.

Good to see the CMC working back.  Tough for me to tell if the usual biases are in play right now or if US modeling has rediscovered the pattern from a few days ago...because this is pretty much what modeling had the other day with multiple events.  

[Carvers Gap]

Man, the para-gfs is pretty much a multi-day overruning event.  Light right now, but the para and regular GFS at 12z are right where we want the boundary.  Are they right?  No idea, but will gladly take the trend.

[Carvers Gap]

I may be cashing in the para-GFS for the season...