February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not sure, but it sounds like some places at elevation def. have. 

The EPS looks more like the CMC or the new para GFS, at least to me, so it would be less suppressed and closer to the 12th than the 14th:

I mean, that is a great look.  -NAO, ridging along the West Coast, AN heights up top and in Alaska.....

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like a window to follow.  If we can manage to put snow on the ground then, it might now leave for several days.  Mountains might keep snow for the rest of the month.  Interestingly, Holston, have the Smokies kept continuous snowfall on the ground since Christmas?

I believe LeConte has had snow on the ground since late November. 

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I believe LeConte has had snow on the ground since late November. 

What percentage of days have you all had snow on the ground since Christmas?  The mountain about 1 mi behind my house is 2400', and it has had something on the north slope about 75%+ of the days since then.

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

What percentage of days have you all had snow on the ground since Christmas?  The mountain about 1 mi behind my house is 2400', and it has had something on the north slope about 75%+ of the days since then.

I've had at least some snow on the ground all but maybe 10-14 days since Christmas. It's been on the ground since Saturday now and will at least make it through part of tomorrow. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ensembles are still quite aggressive with surface HP.  To echo Webber from yesterday, when you start seeing those powerful highs on washed out ensembles...pretty good signal for cold.  Will be interesting to see if operational modeling gets more severe with cold as we get closer to the end of next week.  I am really torn as to whether it comes out in waves or just comes out as one big air mass.  Webber did note today on Twitter that the Pacific construct(go read his Tweet for details) is raising the possibility that it comes out of the West in its entirety as one air mass.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Para and GFS have the 12 - 14th storm window again. 

[John1122]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ensembles are still quite aggressive with surface HP.  To echo Webber from yesterday, when you start seeing those powerful highs on washed out ensembles...pretty good signal for cold.  Will be interesting to see if operational modeling gets more severe with cold as we get closer to the end of next week.  I am really torn as to whether it comes out in waves or just comes out as one big air mass.  Webber did note today on Twitter that the Pacific construct(go read his Tweet for details) is raising the possibility that it comes out of the West in its entirety as one air mass.  

The snow cover factor will play a big role. February has a lot of all time record lows in the midstate. Very impressive since Jan 1985 owns most of those in the state. I've been -20 in February before and that was in the oft mentioned 1996. Managed around -14 in late February 2015. 

[1234snow]

Southeast peeps will probably want to put the 18z GFS on a poster like our 12z Euro run a couple of days ago. Lordy what a storm! Triple phaser?

[John1122]

It's tried a deep south bomb two runs in a row. Always in that mythical d8-10 range with huge snow storms. But a smaller version of that happened in January 2018. 

[Daniel Boone]

I'm in hopes the models are off on this coming week enuff in that we still get some snow before the Arctic intrusion. Still possible I think due to blocking as has been the case a couple times this Winter.

[Carvers Gap]

I think it is going to depend on two things, the strength of the amplification and the amount of cold air which feeds into that trough.  I thought we would have seen that this weekend, but the phase was a few hours off and the cold not nearly as strong.  That said, the aforementioned window late next week/has a chance to form a strong storm along a potentially powerful frontal boundary.   That type of cold running around the continent of NA is just asking for trouble.  Time will tell.  Fun times to track.

[John1122]

I really hope the V16 is on something besides model crack, it's very snowy over the next week, basically forum wide. 

[John1122]

Two systems produce this and another is loaded and building in Texas. 

[John1122]

The Canadian is cooking up something early next week too. 

[John1122]

The GFS is further north and weaker with a long duration valley wide snow event starting Feb 12th. 

[John1122]

Virtually all of this is from February 12th - 14th. 

[Matthew70]

I just can not believe.  I will believe it when it’s on the ground.  Used to be so fun to track them up till now cast time.  Being disappointed here in mid TN has jaded me.

[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I really hope the V16 is on something besides model crack, it's very snowy over the next week, basically forum wide. 

GEFS is kinda split into a couple camps for the beginning of the week...so maybe V16 isnt completely lost

[TellicoWx]

0z Euro is a tad late, popping a low (wasn't there on the 12z) off GA/SC coast

[TellicoWx]

0z Euro would be a monster storm for the SE if it played out that way around the 12th

[Matthew70]

8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

0z Euro would be a monster storm for the SE if it played out that way around the 12th

South of us of course.

[John1122]

36 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

South of us of course.

Look at it this way, it's 200 miles north of where it was on last night's run already this far out.

[John1122]

Well, the GFS suddenly looks like the Euro from a few days ago for the weekend storm. 

[tnweathernut]

The 6z GFSv16 is still insistent on showing a snowstorm for the Tennessee Valley on Super Bowl Sunday. Battles between the Euro and GFS at day 3 almost always go to the Euro, but I did note the GFSv16 was scoring better at 500 than the Euro. Because of this, I don’t think we can simply dismiss it.

Pretty fascinating short range battle here. I just hope the GFSv16 isn’t bringing a knife to a gunfight.



.

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The 6z GFSv16 is still insistent on showing a snowstorm for the Tennessee Valley on Super Bowl Sunday. Battles between the Euro and GFS at day 3 almost always go to the Euro, but I did note the GFSv16 was scoring better at 500 than the Euro. Because of this, I don’t think we can simply dismiss it.

Pretty fascinating short range battle here. I just hope the GFSv16 isn’t bringing a knife to a gunfight.
 

Both versions of the GFS are like that now. I suspect they are just flat wrong but maybe the 12z guidance will further illuminate things. 

[tnweathernut]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Both versions of the GFS are like that now. I suspect they are just flat wrong but maybe the 12z guidance will further illuminate things. 

Definitely not saying this is a battle the v16 will ultimately win.  Euro’s resolution is still king.  Id probably put the v16’s chance of scoring the victory around 10-15%.  Or just above ........

”so you’re telling me there’s a chance” from Dumb and Dumber.

[1234snow]

RGEM and NAM do not have the Super Bowl Sunday storm or anything close to a storm. Interesting to see the 6z GFS cave to the Para. Energy was a little sharper this run. Still on an island though.

[fountainguy97]

WOW guys. Look at this gefs trend.  Gfs I have to say was the first model to find the NC snow system. Can’t ignore an entire model family. MiddlE TN gets in the game on several gefs members 
 

[TellicoWx]

6z GEFS @102 mean and individual members...more members in the have column vs 0z.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the 6z Euro came north with the precip. for superbowl Sunday. Still not like the GFS, but a small step for it.