WXNewton Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam 3km appears to be coming in a tad colder for some of the foothills and NW Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 That run even cut down Roanoke totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3k NAM is about to be a big freezing rain event pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: 3k NAM is about to be a big freezing rain event pretty far south. It's not much here. Warms up past freezing quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Geez , the 12k NAM gave me 0.98 ZR , even if that's cut in half , someone help me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Geez , the 12k NAM gave me 0.98 ZR , even if that's cut in half , someone help me lol i know. half of that puts us in the dark and out of school for a long time. i fear this would be a michael length outage and hope its not. time to load up the cooler with ice in prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1km NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 DT's 1st guess Map... got me in 4-8" , would love that but I don't think we get that high , maybe 2-4" before the change to ICESent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: DT's 1st guess Map... got me in 4-8" , would love that but I don't think we get that high , maybe 2-4" before the change to ICE Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I think DT's map is too bullish for Southside, Roanoke and the NRV. I think his numbers are more accurate around lexington and points northward. I'd take DT's totals for southwest Virginia and cut them in half. That said, I wouldn't be complaining in the slightest if we achieved those totals. I've lived in Roanoke most of my life and I know when that warm nose gets close, a sleetfest ensues. I think 3-5 inches of "crunch" is reasonable to expect at this point. I think your estimates for Dry Fork are spot-on. But hey, here's to hoping that cold air aloft remains stubborn throughout this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: DT's 1st guess Map... got me in 4-8" , would love that but I don't think we get that high , maybe 2-4" before the change to ICE Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2” mile just 10 miles north of me. I doubt that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I wonder if and when RAH will issue WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty much every model I have seen so far tonight is trending slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Pretty much every model I have seen so far tonight is trending slightly warmer RGEM seemed to be slightly cooler than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Pretty much every model I have seen so far tonight is trending slightly warmerNow we'll see whether the a team models follow suit or not. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM colder for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS has surface temps colder into Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: GFS has surface temps colder into Saturday night. Better late than never GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Better late than never GFS It’s seems to have eased up on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS gave me a bit more than an inch tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The GFS is more in line with other models now. I will call this a win if I get an inch of snow/sleet and .10 ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 BTW, it's 23.2 here already and the forecasted low from NOAA is 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know. Forecast low of 24 in sw rutherford already down to 26 at the moment. Should bottom out in the low 20's here. You might be around 19 up your way by tomorrow morning if we can keep the clouds away. Good sign for tommorow night hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: BTW, it's 23.2 here already and the forecasted low from NOAA is 22. That’s interesting. RAH forecasts a low of 21 here and I’m at 27.9 now. I was hoping to get excited about this event, but I’m expecting maybe some light snowflakes from that first band coming through Saturday evening and a 33 degree rain on Sunday. Our events are increasingly marginal and on the edge. The take-it-to-the-bank storms of yore are few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting to see Blacksburg modify their storms totals to a much wider spread. I have to believe they are trying account for elevation variances across such a broad area. Now says 1-6" snow. Thats the most vague forecast I think I've ever seen, but who can blame them! Sunday is going to be an absolute disaster for the state line areas into Southern VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Disc do you believe Southside will be put under a Winter Storm warning due to the potential for significant ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’ll disagree with many posts. I don’t see there being much ice accumulation from this, even at the border. It’s a heavy rain that will be in and out in 8 hours with marginal temps. A decent coat of ice from light rain or drizzle at 30 or 31 degrees, sure. But not .75” of heavy rain at 30 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'd like to go ahead and cash out with the 2-4" from DT. Kinda doubt that. But serious, this comes down to timing for many. Somebody that stays cloudless for a bit Sat night, and then gets precip early enough Sun, can score some wintry precip, and maybe a decent little thump. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 UK still looks pretty solid and cold here along the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The UK is actually colder than the Canadian here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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