kvegas-wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust. I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust. Ehhh. This setup is not like a typical Miller B fashion. Imo the h5 ULL & energy kind of at a high latitude. Considering too the parent High(high latitude) and it's ridge axis entending south. Not much of a meso high into PA,MD,VA. If you have noticed too the parent high doesn't really move. That indicates blocking up stream. But considering all in all I'd said that's a reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Brad P isn’t feeling it especially for the foothills. I’m not feeling this setup either and think the models are way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate. Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Brad P isn’t feeling it especially for the foothills. I’m not feeling this setup either and think the models are way overdone. It will be fun to watch levels and heights. But I expect nothing here in Rutherford county IMBY. Just not cold rain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual. I found some slides on FRAM which were mostly what I was looking for. One interesting thing is there wasn't much evidence of temps below -2C helping with ice accrual. At that point it seemed like rates and even wind were bigger factors. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: It will be fun to watch levels and heights. But I expect nothing here in Rutherford county IMBY. Just not cold rain. . I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW I was shocked also. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, frazdaddy said: Glad I had a new generator installed last week. 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Me too I had the propane guy come out today and top of my tank. Decent chance the generator might be kicking on for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Disc said: It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade. It will be interesting to see how it's delineated. I figure McDowell mountains will be warning and eastern McDowell will be advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 59 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate. One would think they could program models to account for that, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I had the propane guy come out today and top of my tank. Decent chance the generator might be kicking on for all of us. Underground utilities all the way to the substation FTW!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, btownheel said: Underground utilities all the way to the substation FTW! My neighborhood’s utilities are underground, but doesn’t help when the lines to the neighborhood are above ground. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Happy with cold rain with this one. Expecting a snowstorm in about 7-10days. Thunder so deep the other night, had a few small picture frames fall off wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I just saw @Bob Chill post in the mid Atlantic forum. Great seeing him post again. One of my favorite all time contributors. Welcome back, sir. You’ve been missed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 FWIW the 18z Euro, seen below, was 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z run. Kinda out of it’s range at this point, but worth noting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I just saw @Bob Chill post in the mid Atlantic forum. Great seeing him post again. One of my favorite all time contributors. Welcome back, sir. You’ve been missed! second this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 My NWS forecast for Sunday. With the amount of liquid forecasted I hope they have the temp correct. Any colder and it is lights out. Sunday Rain. High near 34. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR is 2-3 degrees warmer so far.. shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, jjwxman said: FWIW the 18z Euro, seen below, was 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z run. Kinda out of it’s range at this point, but worth noting. aint nothin finer than a good ol fashioned sleet storm here in danville by the looks of this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR is quite the sleetfest for Northern foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR shows some snow with that finger that moves through first for wake county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Let's see if the NAM is as cold as 18Z, trends colder, or warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Let's see if the NAM is as cold as 18Z, trends colder, or warmer Looks slightly warmer Saturday afternoon at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So far it's less aggressive with the overrunning finger of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Looks slightly warmer Saturday afternoon at the surface. It is warmer, but mostly a product of less moisture so the dew point is lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Crappy NAM run here, pretty much no sleet or snow, straight to ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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