BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Time for the thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Let's do this!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Time for the thread! Pinned for easier access good luck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 No time better than the present.. for an old fashioned sleet storm! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z HRRR brings a lot of snow to central/southern va... is it right.? Probably not for southern VA, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Good luck to you guys west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, burrel2 said: 18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice. Is it coming in colder also for the 85 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 In-situ cads seem to always underperform but I also can’t recall the last time I saw an ice storm signal like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice. Only one that came in warmer was the RDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is this another storm that ends up trending better within 48 hours like the last one? Local news was even mentioning that MONDAY may be the best chance for some light snow around central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Aptly named thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ^I think that's conservative but a decent place to start a forecast with still a lot of uncertainty. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Freezing Rain QPF and Accumulated Ice (FRAM Estimate) on 18z RGEM Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - a rough estimate of accretion thickness on elevated horizontal surfaces. This product predicts the ice-to-liquid ratio (ILR) empirically from a large climatology and is rather analogous to Kuchera for snowfall, except that wind speed and precipitation rate are also considered in addition to (wet bulb) temperature. Bear in mind ice accretion is even trickier than snowfall accumulation and varies widely by surface type, shape, exposure, and orientation, so we urge responsibility and context in using even FRAM for public-facing forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NWS GSP Winter Storm Watch: Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... .A strong storm system will push into the Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday. This combined with cold temperatures will bring the possibility of a wintry mix of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain to western North Carolina. NCZ033-035-036-049-050-053-056-064-065-501>510-300400- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/ Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains- Eastern Polk- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring 257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest Piedmont. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Windy conditions will be possible across the higher elevations of the Tennessee border counties Sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NWS GSP current probabilistic forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep? Did I miss it? I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still. There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: NWS GSP current probabilistic forecasts: I wonder why Davie County was left out of the WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I would take the NWS forecast and run with it although I'm afraid we get more ice and less snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Glad I had a new generator installed last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Disc said: 5” in Mt Airy is bullish. I’d think more sleet would cut that down but then again, maybe it stays on the colder trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I would take the NWS forecast and run with it although I'm afraid we get more ice and less snowGoing for less here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep? Did I miss it? I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still. There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day. I suspect they do not trust the QPF forecasts on the models. I have to say I am little suspect myself. Sometimes these Miller B transfers do not bring the goods like they are supposed to here in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, strongwxnc said: Going for less here. . I have seen many storms similar to this where Marion had 3 to 4 inches of snow and by the time you got down to Bostic there was little to nothing. Sometimes even by the time you get to the Rutherford/McDowell border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The HRRR has a lot of....sleet here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: The HRRR has a lot of....sleet here? I do think places from Marion to Taylorsville up to Mt Airy see a lot of sleet, probably an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Glad I had a new generator installed last week. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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