psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 we have a conundrum... the GFS/UK/GGEM/RGEM/ICON/NAVGEM all agree on phasing and tucking the low off the VA capes which places our area under the deformation axis. The Euro/NAM jump the upper low further northeast and have the capture happen further north and OTS which misses us with most of the effects from the coastal. Obviously the preponderance of evidence suggests the south solution but we have the EE rule saying no. Tough one. The euro moved in the right direction 12z so I am going to favor the closer to the coast solution ATT. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we have a conundrum... the GFS/UK/GGEM/RGEM/ICON/NAVGEM all agree on phasing and tucking the low off the VA capes which places our area under the deformation axis. The Euro/NAM jump the upper low further northeast and have the capture happen further north and OTS which misses us with most of the effects from the coastal. Obviously the preponderance of evidence suggests the south solution but we have the EE rule saying no. Tough one. The euro moved in the right direction 12z so I am going to favor the closer to the coast solution ATT. 12z OP euro did the weird double coastal low and banked on the further OTS on this time. If it winds up the left side wins, then we all go boom and win. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Be careful using the mean on the EPS because there are two still 2 distinct camps wrt where they capture the secondary. The good news is the improvement on the mean is because about 11 members jumped ship from the eastern escape camp to the tucked in camp. The majority camp went from a slight 55/45 lean towards OTS at 6z to a 60/40 lean towards a quicker capture and tuck. The OTS option is still there and there is a not insignificant camp that support the OP but it was a clear move towards the other guidance. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: CWG first map: Lol. I love this map. With their busts and booms, it's basically... for me... "Yeah you could have somewhere between 3 and 15 inches". 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think this map does a decent shot at showing big dog runs. The answer is there aren't really a ton. Just a pretty uniform 8-10". Ensemble members will struggle to show HUGE totals because they are lower resolution and the snow maps are 10-1. It's very likely an 8" ensemble member is really a 12" snowstorm...maybe even more honestly. That said...the crazy huge totals of a few day's ago are probably off the table because the flow to the northeast has trended more suppressive which has caused the trough to remain more positively tilted then it was when we were seeing those 30" type solutions. It's not impossible to get back to that...but we have some work to do. I think setting the bar at a solid MECS is more realistic. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: While the euro has been jumpy, I’d say it’s ensemble mean has been very steady. At least for my area. Agreed. It has bullseyed us for 4 days straight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Lol. I love this map. With their busts and booms, it's basically... for me... "Yeah you could have somewhere between 3 and 15 inches". Yea, they hedge a lot, but for a first call I can understand the boom and bust scenario. It's no different than LWX's 10% and 90% percentile maps. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I figured this would help pass the time to the NAM 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think we can add the JMA to the majority tuck camp. Its super hard to tell from 24 hour timestamps and super low resolution, and the key time period is kind of missed in between hour 72 and 96 hours...but it looks identical to the GFS/CMC at 72 and from the precip and making reasonable inferences I estimate the JMA adds about .35 qpf from the CCB after about .4 qpf from the WAA wave. That is pretty good btw for the JMA which is low resolution. Even if it was only .35 that would imply a 4-6" snowfall across the area (on top of the 3-6" from the WAA part) given typical high ratios in the deform axis. But that qpf is likely conservative. And that is the most analysis I have ever done or ever care to do again of the JMA. But that was for @Ji. Take care man! 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Given the high probabilities of 6"+ from the 12z Euro ENS, I wouldn't be surprised to see watches go up from LWX either this afternoon or evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Given the high probabilities of 6"+ from the 12z Euro ENS, I wouldn't be surprised to see watches go up from LWX either this afternoon or evening. At the risk of a beatdown from mapgirl, they're not going to wait until evening man 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: I figured this would help pass the time to the NAM Someone smarter than me once said that while SREF’s are wild and outrageous it doesn’t hurt to have them on your side. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 First flakes into Winchester at 9Z. Much better waa than the 12Z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The watch is out: Quote MDZ006-008-011-507-508-300415- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-CECIL-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- 310 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * WHERE...BALTIMORE, CECIL AND HARFORD COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE CITY OF BALTIMORE. * WHEN...FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. Quote DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES- ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN- CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN-NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-JEFFERSON-HARDY- 310 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * WHERE...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA, AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. * WHEN...FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we have a conundrum... the GFS/UK/GGEM/RGEM/ICON/NAVGEM all agree on phasing and tucking the low off the VA capes which places our area under the deformation axis. The Euro/NAM jump the upper low further northeast and have the capture happen further north and OTS which misses us with most of the effects from the coastal. Obviously the preponderance of evidence suggests the south solution but we have the EE rule saying no. Tough one. The euro moved in the right direction 12z so I am going to favor the closer to the coast solution ATT. Far be it from me to EVER dismiss the Euro - but Imma go right ahead and dismiss the NAM (esp after 48 hours). I'm not sure it's much of a conundrum when all other guidance is in one camp and the Euro was nudging in that direction. Not to say that this can't get away from us still, just saying that, as I know you know, when it's "just you and the NAM," it's really just you - hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The watch is out: Geeze. It has been ages since I got that on my phone. I'm encouraged. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Through 45 on IWM. Really nice front end thump so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At the risk of a beatdown from mapgirl, they're not going to wait until evening man Nope. Watches out now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The newest NAM has a better Thump of snow on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Northern counties of the forecast area not included yet. Maybe because of a later start time ? Or, they just don't think we make the criteria ? Yea, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM worth looking at through 48......after that I wouldnt take it too seriously....unless its a HECS....then hug it of course. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 48 Winchester area getting raked. Even if the coastal was to fail we get hammered. 51 Everyone is getting hit hard. 850's through central VA. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 if you havent heard, the NAM. looks improved with the front end thump. Seeing some dark blues up in there 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Damn, the thing that caught my eye are the winds, for any METS out there, would any area meet the 3 hour requirement for a blizzard criteria ? I would speculate to even get close it would have to happen during the second part of the storm, when it intensifies, to hit the visibility and wind criteria, but I was just wondering. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-PAZ101-102-300915- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.210131T1500Z-210202T0600Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem- Cumberland-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, and Kennett Square 314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph creating significant blowing and drifting of snow. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning or evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop west to east Sunday morning and last through late Monday or early Tuesday. A period of wintry mix or rain could occur Sunday night and Monday morning before turning back to snow mid-day on Monday. The highest snow totals and snowfall rates are most likely to occur late Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 lol, what? NAM at 54 hours pushes the primary down to W NC 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, what? NAM at 54 hours pushes the primary down to W NC transfering at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 So the NAM takes the primary south into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: transfering at 54 This is the primary Im talking about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GGEM has an exceptional look for this region, 15-25 inch potential with about 24h of continuous moderate to heavy snow potential as the coastal slowly develops in an ideal location, while the primary slumps southeast to eliminate dry slot and transient warmth. GFS is almost as good. ECM appears to be drifting into the same outlook. Based on that, first call from me: widespread 17-23 inch totals, local 25-30. mixing issues confined to central, southern DE, southeast MD, VA s/e of RIC. 1 1 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 yea weird looking frame for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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