ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherjedi said: Where were you in Jan 2019? I believe that storm was around a foot for most of Moco.. I think I JUST missed 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: I think I JUST missed 10". Yeah it had a narrow band of a foot ! 2part storm like this one maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @psuhoffman already touched on the 500mb aspect of the Euro and how it was closer to something big, but just a bit off on the transfer details. Another thing to watch is the evolution of the 700mb low with regards to the transfer. I was checking the model comparison on Pivotal and I noticed the time frame of most interest will be hrs 72/78 for this section of runs. The biggest differences I find is the NAM and Euro hold back the 700mb low over the OH Valley while the remainder of guidance actually is in the process of a full transfer and enhancement along the coast. You can really see the difference at hr 72 GFS ECMWF NAM RGEM This is important because this is part of the delay in redevelopment of the NW precip field as the low becomes captured and pulled to the west. It will be very important to watch how the 7H and 5H lows evolve in the transition from the primary to the coastal and that happens on Monday morning. That is the make or break time period. If the transfer is clean during that time, the 7H low will strengthen off OCMD. If it's slightly late, it'll be elongated and have the greatest enhancement to the north, placing the best deformation axis over NJ. The Euro took a positive step forward, but it wasn't completely there. Regardless, even without the major hit, it still dropped a WSW criteria event across much of the sub-forum. Hopefully the positive trends continue and that piece in New England can scoot out or become weaker to allow for development and a cleaner transfer period. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What model do we like best for 42-78 hr time frame.....i know most dont take the NAM too seriously past 48 hours.. If you had to pick one with no other information, the Euro operational run is pretty solid at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman did you see that northern stream energy on the backside of the trough dive in? It was like 12-18hrs too late, but if that could speed up... This was so close in so many ways to something much bigger... We don't even need it ALL to come together we just needed either some combination of slightly more backing off of the feature in New England or faster with the feature diggin in behind, and probably only slightly, and that H5 doesn't open up and instead amplifies across to our south which links up with the mid level moisture feed off the coastal and activates the deform axis over our area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ji said: it actually caved more to the GFS than the GFS caved to the euro It has been a compromise but the GFS didn't even see the coastal at all for our area until recently. At this point yea they are converging and run to run the euro might cave to a detail on the GFS at this point...but lets not forget from 5 days the GFS was totally clueless as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @MillvilleWx good catch. I think the h7 and h5 issues are linked. The runs that do not open up the h5 and amplify it from the OH valley across VA to the coast jump the h7 in and phase "clean". The runs that stall the h5 then jump to off the coast do not because the storm is not "phasing" yet. The phase gets delayed (which for our area is a killer) as the H5 makes the jump. We want the h5 to stay closed off and start to phase as it crosses VA not jump to off the coast...and we probably get the h7 feature you pointed out to respond. They are symbiotic imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This was so close in so many ways to something much bigger... We don't even need it ALL to come together we just needed either some combination of slightly more backing off of the feature in New England or faster with the feature diggin in behind, and probably only slightly, and that H5 doesn't open up and instead amplifies across to our south which links up with the mid level moisture feed off the coastal and activates the deform axis over our area. I usually don't pay much attention to ensembles at this point, but I'd expect (and hope) that the EPS has some big dogs in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I usually don't pay much attention to ensembles at this point, but I'd expect (and hope) that the EPS has some big dogs in the mix. 12z today is probably the last cycle that we can use ensembles. Maybe the 18z GEFS/EPS for placement of the coastal low since it's not until Monday, but that's it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Convicted Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Rookie here... Seems like a ton of great analysis of the models over MD/VA area. Are there other analyses looking closer at this New England feature that could illuminate whether that will have the dampening effect that the models are reacting to differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 50 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 1004 SLP primary dying off in S central KY at hour 57. Perfection 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Snow mean is unchanged if not slightly better for most from 00z. I'll let someone smarter analyze the H5/H7/whatever. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow mean is unchanged if not slightly better for most from 00z. I'll let someone smarter analyze the H5/H7/whatever. Do you have the individual members yet? Looks like some big dogs would be in there based on that mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 FWIW, EPS definitely wetter than op for DC area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The Euro ENS mean snowfall supports a warning criteria event for much of the LWX CWA. Looks like the northern edge improved a bit as well. While there are some sheared out ensemble members, there are also a larger number of big hits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Actually looking at the individual totals, it really more looks like they are converging on a good stripe of pink through the DC/Baltimore and surrounding region, not really a bunch of big dogs (a couple there though). Exciting. Looks more and more like a lock 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Do you have the individual members yet? Looks like some big dogs would be in there based on that mean Think this map does a decent shot at showing big dog runs. The answer is there aren't really a ton. Just a pretty uniform 8-10". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 CWG first map: 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Feel like we need one of these in here. Pretty much sums things up. EPS says over 3” is all but certain and over 6” is likely but not a done deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, jayyy said: 0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For our far, far western folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 While the euro has been jumpy, I’d say it’s ensemble mean has been very steady. At least for my area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 we have a conundrum... the GFS/UK/GGEM/RGEM/ICON/NAVGEM all agree on phasing and tucking the low off the VA capes which places our area under the deformation axis. The Euro/NAM jump the upper low further northeast and have the capture happen further north and OTS which misses us with most of the effects from the coastal. Obviously the preponderance of evidence suggests the south solution but we have the EE rule saying no. Tough one. The euro moved in the right direction 12z so I am going to favor the closer to the coast solution ATT. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we have a conundrum... the GFS/UK/GGEM/RGEM/ICON/NAVGEM all agree on phasing and tucking the low off the VA capes which places our area under the deformation axis. The Euro/NAM jump the upper low further northeast and have the capture happen further north and OTS which misses us with most of the effects from the coastal. Obviously the preponderance of evidence suggests the south solution but we have the EE rule saying no. Tough one. The euro moved in the right direction 12z so I am going to favor the closer to the coast solution ATT. 12z OP euro did the weird double coastal low and banked on the further OTS on this time. If it winds up the left side wins, then we all go boom and win. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Be careful using the mean on the EPS because there are two still 2 distinct camps wrt where they capture the secondary. The good news is the improvement on the mean is because about 11 members jumped ship from the eastern escape camp to the tucked in camp. The majority camp went from a slight 55/45 lean towards OTS at 6z to a 60/40 lean towards a quicker capture and tuck. The OTS option is still there and there is a not insignificant camp that support the OP but it was a clear move towards the other guidance. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: CWG first map: Lol. I love this map. With their busts and booms, it's basically... for me... "Yeah you could have somewhere between 3 and 15 inches". 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think this map does a decent shot at showing big dog runs. The answer is there aren't really a ton. Just a pretty uniform 8-10". Ensemble members will struggle to show HUGE totals because they are lower resolution and the snow maps are 10-1. It's very likely an 8" ensemble member is really a 12" snowstorm...maybe even more honestly. That said...the crazy huge totals of a few day's ago are probably off the table because the flow to the northeast has trended more suppressive which has caused the trough to remain more positively tilted then it was when we were seeing those 30" type solutions. It's not impossible to get back to that...but we have some work to do. I think setting the bar at a solid MECS is more realistic. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: While the euro has been jumpy, I’d say it’s ensemble mean has been very steady. At least for my area. Agreed. It has bullseyed us for 4 days straight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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